Optimal search for a moving target with the option to wait

We investigate the problem in which an agent has to find an object that moves between two locations according to a discrete Markov process (Pollock, Operat Res 18 (1970) 883–903). At every period, the agent has three options: searching left, searching right, and waiting. We assume that waiting is costless whereas searching is costly. Moreover, when the agent searches the location that contains the object, he finds it with probability 1 (i.e. there is no overlooking). Waiting can be useful because it could induce a more favorable probability distribution over the two locations next period. We find an essentially unique (nearly) optimal strategy, and prove that it is characterized by two thresholds (as conjectured by Weber, J Appl Probab 23 (1986) 708–717). We show, moreover, that it can never be optimal to search the location with the lower probability of containing the object. The latter result is far from obvious and is in clear contrast with the example in Ross (1983) for the model without waiting. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

基于神经网络信息融合技术的卫星定姿算法

姿态确定系统是卫星姿态控制系统中的重要组成部分,卫星姿态确定的精度直接影响卫星控制精度.为得到高姿态精度,针对由惯性测量单元(Inertial Measurement Unit),红外地平仪和太阳敏感器组成的卫星姿态确定系统,分别采用BP网络算法和径向基(RBF)网络算法对不同的姿态敏感器的输出数据进行融合,并用STK(Satellite Tool Kit)数据进行了仿真.仿真分析结果表明这两种学习算法均可以提高卫星定姿精度,相对而言,RBF网络无论是精度上还是收敛速度上均优于BP网络.     

A continuous-review inventory model with constant resupply time and defective items

As a result of imperfect production and inspection by suppliers, pilferage, and/or damage in transit, it is common that procurement orders may contain defective items. This article deals with a continuous-review inventory system with Poisson demand arrivals and constant resupply time. Items in resupply lots may not be of perfect quality. The operating characteristics of such a system are analyzed. For purposes of computational savings, an approximation scheme for the operating characteristics is presented. As a result of the approximation, the determination of the optimal ordering policy becomes much simpler. Extensive numerical tests suggest that the approximation scheme is very effective in giving the optimal or near-optimal ordering policies for such a system.     

Bounds and properties of the expected value of sample information for a project-selection problem

In this article we extend the work of Mehrez and Stulman [5] on the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) to the expected value of sample information (EVSI) for a class of economic problems dealing with the decision to reject or accept an investment project. It is shown that shifting the mean of the underlying a priori distribution of X, the project's monetary value from zero in either direction will decrease the associated EVSI of Y, the random sampled information. A theorem is then presented which gives an upper bound on the EVSI over all distributions of Y, as well as the structure of the posterior mean E[X|Y] for which this upper bound is achieved. Finally, the case where E[X|Y] is linear in Y is discussed and its performance compared with that of the optimal case.     

The growth in military expenditure in Germany 1951–2011: did parties matter?

We examine whether government ideology was correlated with the growth in military expenditure in Germany over the period 1951–2011. Using various measures of government ideology, the results do not show any effect. The exception is an ideology measure based on the Comparative Manifesto Project (left-right scale): using this measure, the results show that the growth in military expenditure increased by about 2.4 percentage points, when the ideology variable (right-wing) increased by one standard deviation. This effect, however, is based on observations until the early 1960s and cannot be generalized. The major political parties agreed on how to evaluate international risks and threats. Government ideology retired to the background. We conjecture that the consensus among the major parties will persist – even if military spending needs to be increased in response to new international risks and threats.     

高功率电磁环境下C4ISR系统接口电路的阈值实验

采用非接触式电流脉冲注入法,设计了一种通用的接口电路实验模型和测试软件,进行了高功率电磁脉冲对指控系统接口电路的注入损伤实验,测量接口电路耦合电压和耦合电流,并对实验结果进行了分析.实验表明,强电磁能量耦合到电子装备和电气设备内部,可在其接口电路上产生过电压或过电流,从而使设备受到干扰和损伤.     

一种Mini-SAR的极坐标成像算法

Mini-SAR技术是目前SAR领域一个新兴的重要研究方向,但目前投入实用的成像算法很少。针对Mini-SAR的成像原理,给出了一种新的投入实用的极坐标成像算法,通过对该算法优缺点的研究,分析了Mini-SAR成像场景、分辨率及作用距离三者之间的关系,讨论了该算法对成像场景尺寸的限制要求,明确了算法的适用条件;最后利用某型Mini-SAR实际复数图像数据验证了该算法的正确性。研究结论对国内小型SAR的研制具有一定参考价值。     

Volterra级数频谱非线性系统故障诊断方法

介绍了故障诊断技术的基本概念,重点阐述了非线性系统Volterra级数模型的原理及其在故障检测中的应用,并基于这一方法设计了飞机刹车系统惯性传感器故障检测设备.在这一应用系统中,被测系统的故障特征是广义频率响应函数GFRF(Generalized Frequency Response Functions)谱特征.简要介绍了故障诊断的方法,在工程应用实现中设计了相关的硬件电路,实验结果说明了此诊断方法是有效可行的.