Private security contractors and international humanitarian law—a skirmish for recognition in international armed conflicts

In recent international armed conflicts private security contractors (PSCs) have played an ever increasing role and military advisors and tribunals are facing the dilemma of assessing the primary and secondary status of PSCs under international humanitarian law. In this article the misconception that PSCs are necessarily mercenaries will be dispelled. The possibility that PSCs might be categorised as combatants or civilians will then be explored. The conclusion is that where they are incorporated into the armed forces of a state, PSCs might attain combatant status. However, given that states are reluctant to formally incorporate PSCs into their armed forces, they will most likely remain essentially civilian. Their degree of participation in hostilities will determine whether they retain their immunity under international humanitarian law from attack and prosecution (as civilians) or whether they are rendered unlawful belligerents.     

Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model

We undertake inference for a stochastic form of the Lanchester combat model. In particular, given battle data, we assess the type of battle that occurred and whether or not it makes any difference to the number of casualties if an army is attacking or defending. Our approach is Bayesian and we use modern computational techniques to fit the model. We illustrate our method using data from the Ardennes campaign. We compare our results with previous analyses of these data by Bracken and Fricker. Our conclusions are somewhat different to those of Bracken. Where he suggests that a linear law is appropriate, we show that the logarithmic or linear‐logarithmic laws fit better. We note however that the basic Lanchester modeling assumptions do not hold for the Ardennes data. Using Fricker's modified data, we show that although his “super‐logarithmic” law fits best, the linear, linear‐logarithmic, and logarithmic laws cannot be ruled out. We suggest that Bayesian methods can be used to make inference for battles in progress. We point out a number of advantages: Prior information from experts or previous battles can be incorporated; predictions of future casualties are easily made; more complex models can be analysed using stochastic simulation techniques. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 541–558, 2000     

Exploiting self‐canceling demand point aggregation error for some planar rectilinear median location problems

When solving location problems in practice it is quite common to aggregate demand points into centroids. Solving a location problem with aggregated demand data is computationally easier, but the aggregation process introduces error. We develop theory and algorithms for certain types of centroid aggregations for rectilinear 1‐median problems. The objective is to construct an aggregation that minimizes the maximum aggregation error. We focus on row‐column aggregations, and make use of aggregation results for 1‐median problems on the line to do aggregation for 1‐median problems in the plane. The aggregations developed for the 1‐median problem are then used to construct approximate n‐median problems. We test the theory computationally on n‐median problems (n ≥ 1) using both randomly generated, as well as real, data. Every error measure we consider can be well approximated by some power function in the number of aggregate demand points. Each such function exhibits decreasing returns to scale. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 614–637, 2003.     

Production planning with resources subject to congestion

A fundamental difficulty in developing effective production planning models has been accurately reflecting the nonlinear dependency between workload and lead times. We develop a mathematical programming model for production planning in multiproduct, single stage systems that captures the nonlinear dependency between workload and lead times. We then use outer linearization of this nonlinear model to obtain a linear programming formulation and extend it to multistage systems. Extensive computational experiments validate the approach and compare its results to conventional models that assume workload‐independent planning lead times. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

基于GAHP的作战决策方案优选模型

优选科学合理的作战方案,是指挥员作战决策的关键。根据作战实际情况,运用五标度和六标度法量化了各因素对作战决策方案的影响指标,建立了基于多人层次分析法(GAHP)理论的优选作战决策方案数学模型,以从方案中选出作战效益最好、付出代价最小且最具可行性的方案,作为决策的具体行动依据。最后通过实例验证了模型的可操作性。GAHP方法能很好地运用不同决策者对方案的不同评价,形成最终决策,对作战指挥决策有一定的现实意义。     

广义Liénard方程Poincaré分岔极限环的唯一性和不存在性

讨论了一类广义Linard方程x¨+f1(x)x.2+εf2(x)x.+g(x)=0的Poincar分岔极限环的唯一性和不存在性。将不对Abel积分进行分项,而是利用一阶Mel′nikov函数直接从整体上进行分析讨论,得出了若干判别准则和充分条件。     

基于ADC模型的坦克炮射击效能评估

运用美国工业界武器系统效能咨询委员会(WSEIAC)评估武器系统效能的方法,综合坦克炮射击的特点,建立完善了适合坦克炮射击效能评价方法的数学模型,并对模型中各有关参数进行了初定,使效能分析的结果更接近实际.     

串并联结构分解目标毁伤评估

针对仿真中空地导弹攻击复杂目标的毁伤评估问题,提出了一种基于串并联结构分解的目标毁伤评估算法,并引入了修复时间作为毁伤评估的一项指标.该算法首先按结构布局和功能关系将目标分解成多个子系统,并组成串并联结构图,然后根据导弹的精确落点对每个子系统进行毁伤评估,最后综合所有子系统的毁伤情况得出目标整体的毁伤程度和恢复正常所需...     

地空导弹反导作战拦截次数计算模型及仿真

在分析地空导弹武器系统拦截来袭目标过程的基础上,通过分析地空导弹发射区纵深建立了地空导弹武器系统可拦截次数模型.利用该模型可计算地空导弹武器系统对单个来袭目标在杀伤区内的拦截次数.仿真结果揭示了地空导弹武器系统在不同目标特性(速度、高度、航路捷径)下对目标的可拦截次数的影响.     

一类二次Hamilton系统在三次多项式扰动下的极限环

通过计算一类二次Hamilton系统的高阶Mel′nikov函数,对该系统在三次多项式扰动下分岔的极限环个数进行了估计。