Prospects for Closer GCC Military and Political Cooperation

Abstract

‘[Sovereignty] is possible only within the framework of multinational communities, of common institutions designed to provide common responses to common challenges. Security is no longer attainable in the traditional way. Neither the walled city nor the nation-state can provide protection against attack or threats of physical destruction… Increasingly the politics of nations revolve around the careful management of interdependence.’     

A computation procedure for the exact solution of location-allocation problems with rectangular distances

A method is presented to locate and allocate p new facilities in relation to n existing facilities. Each of the n existing facilities has a requirement flow which must be supplied by the new facilities. Rectangular distances are assumed to exist between all facilities. The algorithm proceeds in two stages. In the first stage a set of all possible optimal new facility locations is determined by a set reduction algorithm. The resultant problem is shown to be equivalent to finding the p-median of a weighted connected graph. In the second stage the optimal locations and allocations are obtained by using a technique for solving the p-median problem.     

A Bayesian approach to demand estimation and inventory provisioning

This article addresses the problem of explicitly taking into account uncertainty about the demand for spare parts in making inventory procurement and stockage decisions. The model described provides for a unified treatment of the closely related problems of statistical estimation of demand and resource allocation within the inventory system, and leads to an easily implemented, efficient method of determining requirements for spare parts both in the early provisioning phase and in later periods of operations when demand data have accumulated Analyses of the model's theoretical foundations and of sample outcomes of the model based upon data on parts intended for use in the F-14 lead to conclusions of great importance to both support planners and operations planners Finally, of particular significance is the ability afforded the planner by this model to quantify the impact on inventory system costs of varying levels of system reliability or management uncertainty as to projected system performance. This will provide an economic basis for analysis of such alternatives as early deployment, operational testing, and equipment redesign.     

Location of facilities with rectangular distances among point and area destinations

This article is concerned with the optimal location of any number (n) of facilities in relation to any number (m) of destinations on the Euclidean plane. The criterion to be satisfied is the minimization of total weighted distances where the distances are rectangular. The destinations may be either single points, lines or rectangular areas. A gradient reduction solution procedure is described which has the property that the direction of descent is determined by the geometrical properties of the problem.     

System comparison procedures for automatic target recognition systems

Estimating the performance of an automatic target recognition (ATR) system in terms of its probability of successfully identifying a target involves extensive image collection and processing, which can be very time‐consuming and expensive. Therefore, we investigate the Wald sequential test for the difference in two proportions as a sample size‐reducing alternative to ranking and selection procedures and confidence intervals. An analysis of the test parameters leads to a practical methodology for implementing the Wald test for fairly comparing two systems, based on specific experimental goals. The test is also extended with the modified, sequentially rejective Bonferroni procedure for the multiple pairwise comparison of more than two systems. Two sampling schemes for different experimental goals are also discussed. The test methodology is applied to actual data to compare different configurations of a specific ATR system, with the results demonstrating that the modified Wald sequential procedure is a useful alternative to comparing proportions with confidence intervals, particularly when data are expensive. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 357–371, 1999     

The residual life of the renewal process: A simple algorithm

We develop a simple algorithm, which does not require convolutions, for computing the distribution of the residual life when the renewal process is discrete. We also analyze the algorithm for the particular case of lattice distributions, and we show how it can apply to an inventory problem. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 435–443, 1999     

Success and Failure in Terrorist Investigations: Research and Lessons from Northern Ireland

Police investigations of terrorist incidents are rarely straightforward. This paper reports the findings of research that looked at low-level paramilitary attacks in Northern Ireland which have taken place during the ceasefire era. Of 500 incidents studied, 28 were followed by the arrest of suspects. The study examines what factors were important for linking later arrests with other features of the incident. These results are discussed in terms of the wider implications for the successful investigation of paramilitary offences and in terms of the specific implications for investigative policing within Northern Ireland.     

Security,autonomy and defense burdens: The effects of alliance membership in the 19th and 20th centuries

This paper investigates the effect of alliance membership on the defense burdens of major powers in the 19th and 20th centuries. We hypothesize that the reactions of states to alliance membership will be different in the pre‐nuclear and nuclear eras. Possession of nuclear weapons by allies makes the security provided by the alliance more akin to a collective good than is the case in the pre‐nuclear era. States join alliances for two reasons: security and autonomy. The effects of each of these concerns are identified. We include in our model such alliance‐level factors as the power equivalence of the allies and the number of states in the alliance. We also look at state‐level variables such as power position within the alliance. We conclude that the nuclear period generally operates as the free‐rider principle would posit, while models based on “complementarity of effort” are more applicable in the earlier period.