Does Spoiling Work? Assessing the Impact of Spoilers on Civil War Peace Agreements

Scholars and policymakers argue that violent actors – termed ‘spoilers’ – pose a significant threat to civil war peace agreements. Yet existing research, which is overly reliant on single-case studies, has not effectively determined how prevalent spoiling is, or thoroughly examined what its ultimate effects are on peace agreements. This article draws on a newly constructed cross-national dataset of spoiling following 241 civil war peace agreements in the post-Cold War era to analyze spoiling. It finds that spoiling intended to terminate an agreement is not as common as typically assumed, but still plagues a sizeable number of peace agreements. Moreover, most actors who resort to this strategy typically fail in their goals and the agreement is not at risk, despite the high publicity and attention given to these threats. Yet particular types of actors, most notably paramilitaries and state security forces excluded from the agreement, can pose a significant threat to peace.     

Service design at diagnostic service centers

We study a service design problem in diagnostic service centers, call centers that provide medical advice to patients over the phone about what the appropriate course of action is, based on the caller's symptoms. Due to the tension between increased diagnostic accuracy and the increase in waiting times more in‐depth service requires, managers face a difficult decision in determining the optimal service depth to guide the diagnostic process. The specific problem we consider models the situation when the capacity (staffing level) at the center is fixed, and when the callers have both congestion‐ and noncongestion‐related costs relating to their call. We develop a queueing model incorporating these features and find that the optimal service depth can take one of two different structures, depending on factors such as the nurses' skill level and the maximum potential demand. Sensitivity analyses of the two optimal structures show that they are quite different. In some situations, it may (or may not) be optimal for the manager to try to expand the demand at the center, and increasing skill level may (or may not) increase congestion. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

Approximations and empirics for stochastic war equations

The article develops a theorem which shows that the Lanchester linear war equations are not in general equal to the Kolmogorov linear war equations. The latter are time‐consuming to solve, and speed is important when a large number of simulations must be run to examine a large parameter space. Run times are provided, where time is a scarce factor in warfare. Four time efficient approximations are presented in the form of ordinary differential equations for the expected sizes and variances of each group, and the covariance, accounting for reinforcement and withdrawal of forces. The approximations are compared with “exact” Monte Carlo simulations and empirics from the WWII Ardennes campaign. The band spanned out by plus versus minus the incremented standard deviations captures some of the scatter in the empirics, but not all. With stochastically varying combat effectiveness coefficients, a substantial part of the scatter in the empirics is contained. The model is used to forecast possible futures. The implications of increasing the combat effectiveness coefficient governing the size of the Allied force, and injecting reinforcement to the German force during the Campaign, are evaluated, with variance assessments. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

From management crisis to crisis management? Japan’s post-2012 institutional reforms and Sino-Japanese crisis (In)stability

Since 2012, China’s assertion of its sovereignty claim to the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has significantly raised the risk of a potentially escalatory political-military crisis with Japan. As circumstances worsen, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has championed major institutional reforms aimed at centralizing Japanese security policy decision-making and vastly improving crisis management. This article assesses these reforms’ significance for ameliorating Japan’s long-standing internal crisis management weaknesses, and enhancing its ability to communicate with Beijing promptly under challenging conditions. While significant issues remain, recent developments – especially the establishment of Japan’s first-ever National Security Council – demonstrate significant progress. Bilaterally, however, important firebreaks remain conspicuously absent.     

Transit vessel scheduling

A transit vessel traffic scheduling algorithm has been developed to limit the negative effects on cargo volume throughput in two‐way waterways where separation distances between transiting vessels must be maintained and passage restrictions may hold. It runs in time that is polynomial in the number of ships involved in the computation and finds schedules which increase the utilization of waterways. Three examples illustrate its use. The first example is situated in the Sunda Strait where the algorithm is used to enhance the safety of merchant shipping against a terrorist threat. It illustrates important features of the algorithm and demonstrates how it can be used with cross traffic. The second example is situated in the Strait of Istanbul and offers a comparison between the developed algorithm and the transit vessel scheduling algorithm of Ulusçu et al., J Navig 62 (2009), 59–77. This was done using a plausible model of the Strait of Istanbul. The third and last example shows how the algorithm can be used to schedule transit vessel traffic in two‐way waterways with junctions. This feature is especially useful in congested waters with a high risk of collisions like the Inland Sea of Japan. An extreme test case proves that the developed algorithm is a practical algorithm ready for such use. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 225–248, 2017     

An exact algorithm for the batch sequencing problem in a two-machine flow shop with limited buffer

This paper deals with the problem of makespan minimization in a flow shop with two machines when the input buffer of the second machine can only host a limited number of parts. Here we analyze the problem in the context of batch processing, i.e., when identical parts must be processed consecutively. We propose an exact branch-and-bound algorithm, in which the bounds exploit the batching nature of the problem. Extensive computational results show the effectiveness of the approach, and allow us to compare it with a previous heuristic approach. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 141–164, 1998     

Principles of Minimum Force and the Parachute Regiment in Northern Ireland, 1969–1972

Developing literature on Operation Banner, the codename for the British military operation in Northern Ireland, has indicated that the conduct of soldiers deployed was not always in line with principles of minimum force. Adherence to these principles would seem to have been essential to the success of the operation given the initial deployment of the soldiers was in the role of military aid to the civil power. This article will examine the role of one of the British Army’s most aggressive units, the Parachute Regiment, and will show how the responses of the regiment to the demands of the operation in Northern Ireland were frequently in contravention of minimum force principles.     

Estimating a survival curve when new is better than used with respect to a distinguished set

Hollander, Park, and Proschan define a survival function S of a positive random variable X to be new better than used at age t₀ (NBU-{t₀}) if S satisfies $ \begin{array}{*{20}c} {\frac{{S(x + t_0)}}{{S\left({t_0} \right)}} \le S\left(x \right),} & {{\rm for}\,{\rm all}\,x\, \ge \,0,} \\ \end{array}$ where S(x) = P(X > x). The NBU-{t₀} class is a special case of the NBU-A family of survival distributions, where A is a subset of [0, ∞). These families introduce a variety of modeling possibilities for use in reliability studies. We treat problems of nonparametric estimation of survival functions from these classes by estimators which are themselves members of the classes of interest. For a number of such classes, a recursive estimation technique is shown to produce closed-form estimators which are strongly consistent and converge to the true survival distribution at optimal rates. For other classes, additional assumptions are required to guarantee the consistency of recursive estimators. As an example of the latter case, we demonstrate the consistency of a recursive estimator for S ∈ NBU-[t₀, ∞) based on lifetime data from items surviving a preliminary “burn-in” test. The relative precision of the empirical survival curve and several recursive estimators of S are investigated via simulation; the results provide support for the claim that recursive estimators are superior to the empirical survival curve in restricted nonparametric estimation problems of the type studied here.