Planning accelerated life tests for censored two‐parameter exponential distributions

We consider optimal test plans involving life distributions with failure‐free life, i.e., where there is an unknown threshold parameter below which no failure will occur. These distributions do not satisfy the regularity conditions and thus the usual approach of using the Fisher information matrix to obtain an optimal accelerated life testing (ALT) plan cannot be applied. In this paper, we assume that lifetime follows a two‐parameter exponential distribution and the stress‐life relationship is given by the inverse power law model. Near‐optimal test plans for constant‐stress ALT under both failure‐censoring and time‐censoring are obtained. We first obtain unbiased estimates for the parameters and give the approximate variance of these estimates for both failure‐censored and time‐censored data. Using these results, the variance for the approximate unbiased estimate of a percentile at a design stress is computed and then minimized to produce the near‐optimal plan. Finally, a numerical example is presented together with simulation results to study the accuracy of the approximate variance given by the proposed plan and show that it outperforms the equal‐allocation plan. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 169–186, 1999     

Efficient multinomial selection in simulation

Consider a simulation experiment consisting of v independent vector replications across k systems, where in any given replication one system is selected as the best performer (i.e., it wins). Each system has an unknown constant probability of winning in any replication and the numbers of wins for the individual systems follow a multinomial distribution. The classical multinomial selection procedure of Bechhofer, Elmaghraby, and Morse (Procedure BEM) prescribes a minimum number of replications, denoted as v*, so that the probability of correctly selecting the true best system (PCS) meets or exceeds a prespecified probability. Assuming that larger is better, Procedure BEM selects as best the system having the largest value of the performance measure in more replications than any other system. We use these same v* replications across k systems to form (v*)^k pseudoreplications that contain one observation from each system, and develop Procedure AVC (All Vector Comparisons) to achieve a higher PCS than with Procedure BEM. For specific small-sample cases and via a large-sample approximation we show that the PCS with Procedure AVC exceeds the PCS with Procedure BEM. We also show that with Procedure AVC we achieve a given PCS with a smaller v than the v* required with Procedure BEM. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 459–482, 1998     

Estimating reliability of components with increasing failure rate using series system data

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a distribution function with increasing failure rate is derived, based on a collection of series system data. Applications can arise in industries where operating environments make available only such system-level data, due to system configuration or type-II censoring. The estimator can be solved using isotonic regression. For the special case in which systems contain one component, the estimator is equivalent to the restricted maximum likelihood estimator of Marshall and Proschan [9]. The MLE is illustrated using emergency diesel generator failure data from the nuclear industry. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 115–123, 1998     

A squared-euclidean distance location-allocation problem

This article is concerned with the analysis of a squared-Euclidean distance location-allocation problem with balanced transportation constraints, where the costs are directly proportional to distances and the amount shipped. The problem is shown to be equivalent to maximizing a convex quadratic function subject to transportation constraints. A branch-and-bound algorithm is developed that utilizes a specialized, tight, linear programming representation to compute strong upper bounds via a Lagrangian relaxation scheme. These bounds are shown to substantially dominate several other upper bounds that are derived using standard techniques as problem size increases. The special structure of the transportation constraints is used to derive a partitioning scheme, and this structure is further exploited to devise suitable logical tests that tighten the bounds implied by the branching restrictions on the transportation flows. The transportation structure is also used to generate additional cut-set inequalities based on a cycle prevention method which preserves a forest graph for any partial solution. Results of the computational experiments, and a discussion on possible extensions, are also presented.     

Waiting times for M/G/1 queues with service-time or delay-dependent server vacations

This article shows how to determine the stationary distribution of the virtual wait in M/G/1 queues with either one-at-a-time or exhaustive server vacations, depending on either service times or accrued workload. For the first type of dependence, each vacation time is a function of the immediately preceding service time or of whether the server finds the system empty after returning from vacation. In this way, it is possible to model situations such as long service times followed by short vacations, and vice versa. For the second type of dependence, the vacation time assigned to an arrival to follow its service is a function of the level of virtual wait reached. By this device, we can model situations in which vacations may be shortened whenever virtual delays have gotten excessive. The method of analysis employs level-crossing theory, and examples are given for various cases of service and vacation-time distributions. A closing discussion relates the new model class to standard M/G/1 queues where the service time is a sum of variables having complex dependencies. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The reporting time problem: Integration of intelligence with verification

This article is a theoretic study of the following problem in verification: Mobile units under control of an agent, whom we call the HIDER, travel on a known transportation network and must at the conclusion of their itinerary report locations at fixed time intervals to a monitoring authority, whom we call the SEEKER. The purpose of this reporting requirement is to verify that illegal units do not infiltrate the network from sources under the control of the HIDER. We assume that the SEEKER has an independent intelligence-gathering capability which gives sightings of both legal and illegal units. The purpose of this article is to quantify the advantage of frequent over infrequent reporting. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Evaluation of an integrated supplier-buyer quality-control system

In this article, a quality-control design framework that employs information for the supplier-buyer system is modeled. Significant operational savings may be obtained by using the integrated plans developed under this framework. This is especially true when the cost of a defective is high, and the variable sampling and rework costs are low. Analysis of the interaction of defective, rework, and variable sampling costs reveals that the savings are the result of a shift of control effort from the process-control to the lot-acceptance stage, which is the consequence of tradeoffs involving both stages. The managerial impact of adopting integrated plans is discussed.     

A network reformulation of an electric utility expansion planning model

We reformulate a multiperiod capacity expansion model of electric utilities as a network model. We show how to reconstruct the dual solution of the original mathematical program from the network model solution. To formulate the network model, we use information about the properties of the optimal solution of the mathematical program to reduce the number of constraints. The remaining constraints are then readily converted into network constraints. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons. Inc.     

Counterinsurgency as armed reform: The political history of the Malayan Emergency

Despite the emphasis in doctrine and academia that counterinsurgency is in its essence political, these operations are all too commonly discussed and approached as primarily military endeavors. Informed by the need to refocus counterinsurgency studies, this article revisits a foundational case of the canon – the Malayan Emergency – to discuss its political (i.e., not military) unfolding. The analysis distinguishes itself by emphasizing the diplomatic processes, negotiations, and deals that gave strategic meaning to the military operations underway. In so doing, the article also generates insight on the use of leverage and elite bargains in creating new political settlements and bringing insurgent conflicts to an end.