A linear programming model for design of communications networks with time varying probabilistic demands

In this paper marginal investment costs are assumed known for two kinds of equipment stocks employed to supply telecommunications services: trunks and switching facilities. A network hierarchy is defined which includes important cases occurring in the field and also appearing in the literature. A different use of the classical concept of the marginal capacity of an additional trunk at prescribed blocking probability leads to a linear programming supply model which can be used to compute the sizes of all the high usage trunk groups. The sizes of the remaining trunk groups are approximated by the linear programming models, but can be determined more accurately by alternate methods once all high usage group sizes are computed. The approach applies to larger scale networks than previously reported in the literature and permits direct application of the duality theory of linear programming and its sensitivity analyses to the study and design of switched probabilistic communications networks with multiple busy hours during the day. Numerical results are presented for two examples based on field data, one of which having been designed by the multi-hour engineering method.     

Markov chain with taboo states and reliability

A computationally feasible matrix method is presented to find the first-passage probabilities in a Markov chain where a set of states is taboo during transit. This concept has been used to evaluate the reliability of a system whose changes in strength can be thought of as a Markov chain, while the environment in which it is functioning generates stresses which can also be envisaged as another Markov chain.     

Product moments of order statistics from the doubly truncated exponential distribution

Recurrence relations for the product moments of order statistics from a doubly truncated exponential distribution are obtained. These relations allow us to evaluate the product moments for all sample sizes.     

A generalization of the entropy model for brand purchase behavior

Hemiter's entropy model for brand purchase behavior has been generalized for Renyi's measure of entropy which is a more general concept than Shannon's measure of entropy used by Herniter and which includes Shannon's measure as a limiting case. The generalized model considered here is more flexible than Herniter's model since it can give different marketing statistics for different products and it can give these statistics even when only some of the brands are considered.     

An attack-defense game with matrix strategies

This paper presents the results and the method of analysis for an attack-defense game involving allocation of resources. Each player is assumed to have several different types of resources to be divided in optimal fashion among a fixed set of targets. The payoff function of the game is convex. The “No Soft-Spot” principle of M. Dresher, and the concept of the generalized inverse of a matrix are used to determine optimal strategies for each player and the value of the game.     

Dielectric constant predictions for energetic materials using quantum calculations

The dielectric constant (DC) is one of the key properties for detection of threat materials such as Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs). In the present paper, the density functional theory (DFT) as well as ab-initio approaches are used to explore effective methods to predict dielectric constants of a series of 12 energetic materials (EMs) for which experimental data needed to experimentally determine the dielectric constant (refractive indices) are available. These include military grades energetic materials, nitro and peroxide compounds, and the widely used nitroglycerin. Ab-initio and DFT calculations are conducted. In order to calculate dielectric constant values of materials, potential DFT functional combined with basis sets are considered for testing. Accuracy of the calculations are compared to experimental data listed in the scientific literature, and time required for calculations are both evaluated and discussed. The best functional/basis set combinations among those tested are CAM-B3LYP and AUG-cc-pVDZm, which provide great results, with accuracy deviations below 5% when calculated results are compared to experimental data.     

Modeling and analysis of vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through narrow waterways

In this paper, we present a physics-based stochastic model to investigate vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through a narrow waterway. A state-space model is developed to represent the waterway and the location of vessels at a given time. We first determine the distribution of surface current at a given location of the waterway depending on channel geometry, bottom topography, boundary conditions, and the distribution of wind. Then we determine the distribution of the angular drift for a given vessel travelling at a given location of a waterway. Finally, we incorporate the drift probabilities and random arrival of vessels into a Markov chain model. By analyzing the time-dependent and the steady-state probabilities of the Markov chain, we obtain risk measures such as the probability of casualty at a given location and also the expected number of casualties for a given number of vessels arriving per unit time. Analysis of the Markovian model also yields an analytical result that shows that the expected number of casualties is proportional to square of the tanker arrival rate. We present our methodology on an experimental model of a hypothetical narrow waterway. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Reseach Logistics 46: 871–892, 1999     

A set-processing algorithm for scheduling staff on 4-day or 3-day work weeks

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for scheduling a single-category work force on 4-day or 3-day work weeks. Employees work 4 or 3 days each week, have A out of every B weekends off, and work no more than 5 consecutive days in a work stretch on 4-day work weeks and no more than 4 days in a work stretch on 3-day work weeks. Such conditions often prevail in 7-day-a-week organizations such as hospitals, manufacturing plants, and retail stores. We determine the minimum number of workers required to satisfy the scheduling constraints under any pattern of daily requirements. Then we present the algorithm for assigning days off for each worker, thereby determining the work schedules. We show that the algorithm, by construction, will necessarily satisfy the scheduling constraints. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 839–853, 1998     

Using multiple searchers in constrained-path,moving-target search problems

The search theory open literature has paid little, if any, attention to the multiple-searcher, moving-target search problem. We develop an optimal branch-and-bound procedure and six heuristics for solving constrained-path problems with multiple searchers. Our optimal procedure outperforms existing approaches when used with only a single searcher. For more than one searcher, the time needed to guarantee an optimal solution is prohibitive. Our heuristics represent a wide variety of approaches: One solves partial problems optimally, two use paths based on maximizing the expected number of detections, two are genetic algorithm implementations, and one is local search with random restarts. A heuristic based on the expected number of detections obtains solutions within 2% of the best known for each one-, two-, and three-searcher test problem considered. For one- and two-searcher problems, the same heuristic's solution time is less than that of other heuristics. For three-searcher problems, a genetic algorithm implementation obtains the best-known solution in as little as 20% of other heuristic solution times. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.