A view from Berlin: Colonel Frederick trench and the development of British perceptions of German aggressive intent, 1906–1910

This essay traces the image of Germany that emerges from the reports of Colonel Frederick Trench (1857–1942), British military attache in Berlin from 1906 to 1910. At this time, the British Army possessed only the most limited intelligence‐gathering apparatus and had to rely heavily on the reports of military attaches for information about their continental rivals. Trench, who believed that Germany planned to wage war against Britain and said so categorically in his reports, was the main source of data on the German Army. From the limited surviving records of who read these reports and how they responded to them, this essay posits that Trench's views contributed to the growing British perception of a German threat, a perception that did much to influence British strategic planning in this period.     

Building A New Luftwaffe: The United States Air Force and Bundeswehr Planning for Rearmament, 1950–60

Rearming Germany was a long and complicated process. It was especially difficult to create a new German air force. The army generals who dominated the Bundeswehr cadre did not even want an air force but rather a small arm air corps. Moreover, Adenauer's defense staff failed to adequately budget or plan for a new air force. As rearmament began, US Air Force leaders, working closely with the small Luftwaffe staff in West Germany's shadow Defense Ministry, basically took charge of the process to ensure that the Germans built a new Luftwaffe on the American model – a large, multipurpose force organized as an independent service and fully integrated into NATO. The first Bundesluftwaffe commanders allied themselves to the Americans, often in opposition to their army comrades, to overcome the political problems caused by Adenauer's poor defense planning and create a modern air force on American lines.     

The survival probability function of a target moving along a straight line in a random field of obscuring elements

A target is moving along a straight-line path. Random portions of the path might be invisible to the hunter (in shadow). Shooting trials are conducted only along the visible segments of the path. An algorithm for the numerical determination of the survival probability of the target is developed. This algorithm is based on the distribution of shadow length, which is also developed. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Development programs for one‐shot systems using multiple‐state design reliability models

Design reliability at the beginning of a product development program is typically low, and development costs can account for a large proportion of total product cost. We consider how to conduct development programs (series of tests and redesigns) for one‐shot systems (which are destroyed at first use or during testing). In rough terms, our aim is to both achieve high final design reliability and spend as little of a fixed budget as possible on development. We employ multiple‐state reliability models. Dynamic programming is used to identify a best test‐and‐redesign strategy and is shown to be presently computationally feasible for at least 5‐state models. Our analysis is flexible enough to allow for the accelerated stress testing needed in the case of ultra‐high reliability requirements, where testing otherwise provides little information on design reliability change. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

A vertex-closing approach to the p-center problem

This article uses a vertex-closing approach to investigate the p-center problem. The optimal set of vertices to close are found in imbedded subgraphs of the original graph. Properties of these subgraphs are presented and then used to characterize the optimal solution, to establish a priori upper and lower bounds, to establish refined lower bounds, and to verify the optimality of solutions. These subgraphs form the foundation of two polynomial algorithms of complexity O(|E| log |E|) and O(|E|²). The algorithms are proven to converge to an optimum for special cases, and computational evidence is provided which suggests that they produce very good solutions more generally. Both algorithms perform very well on problems where p is large relative to the number of vertices n, specifically, when p/n ≥ 0.30. One of the algorithms is especially efficient for solving a sequence of problems on the same graph.     

A bayes approach to quality control of an M/G/1 queue

This article provides a Bayes approach for the quality control of a production process which is defined by an M/G/1 queue. An inspection procedure which is jointly optimal from the queue's operational characteristics and quality-control perspectives is found using a queue-inspection renewal cycle analysis (with overall expected profit per unit time as the optimization objective). Numerical results are obtained, highlighting the relationships between quality control and (queue-like) production management.     

A one-dimensional infiltration game

Minimax strategies are obtained for an infiltration game in which one player must move through a one-dimensional interval defended by the other player.     

An approximation to the stationary distribution of a multiechelon repairable-item inventory system with finite sources and repair channels

We consider a multiechelon repairable-item inventory system where several bases are supported by a central depot. Unlike METRIC-based models, there are only a finite number of repairmen at each base and the depot, and the failure rates at the bases depend on the current number of items online. The principal objective of this article is to develop a quick and accurate approximation to the steady-state distribution of this system. A secondary objective is to compare the solution of this system with a comparable METRIC solution.     

Product commonality in multiple‐period,make‐to‐stock systems

It is well known that replacing several products by a single common product can reduce required safety stock levels due to the benefits of risk pooling. Recent research utilizing single‐period models has investigated the cost savings (or losses) from doing so. This paper uses a very general multiple‐period model, with general demand distributions, any number of products, and the objective of minimizing production, holding, and shortage costs. Two scenarios are considered—one that utilizes a common product and one that does not. Prior results utilizing single‐period models indicate that even if the common product is more expensive than the products it replaces, there are many circumstances under which it is still worthwhile to employ. Surprisingly, this paper will show that this is almost never the case in a multiple‐period model. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 737–751, 1999     

International Norms in Ethno-Territorial Disputes: Legitimacy and Efficacy in Outsiders’ Views of Independence and Irredentism

Ethno-national territorial disputes typically involve conflicting homeland claims between states and minority ethnic groups. Where such minority ethnic groups have cross-border ethnic kin who themselves constitute a dominant or influential ethnic group in a neighbouring state, separatist goals may take the form of either irredentism or independence. We conjecture that external sympathy for irredentism and independence may vary significantly, and that this variation may be an important influence in situations where secessionist groups and ethnic kin states have a choice between the two goals. Using a bargaining framework that controls for variation in relative power, status quo conditions and minority-side leadership preferences, we present experimental evidence indicating that external audiences are likely to support more confrontational policies in pursuit of independence than in pursuit of irredentism. Our evidence also indicates that independence attracts greater support largely because outsiders perceive it as a more legitimate goal; and that practical efficacy is not important in stimulating sympathy for either independence or irredentism. These results also support a broader argument in the literature on international norms – that such norms receive support not only because they may justify pre-existing goals or interests, but also because they are perceived as having greater legitimacy per se.