Inference for the maximum cell probability under multinomial sampling

This article investigates inference for p_max, the largest cell probability in multinomial trials for the case of a small to moderate number of trials. Emphasis focuses on point and interval estimation. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are developed. The results of extensive simulation investigation are included as well as the analysis of a set of crime data for the city of New Orleans taken from the National Crime Survey.     

Some two-on-two homogeneous stochastic combats

In this article we consider two versions of two-on-two homogeneous stochastic combat and develop expressions, in each case, for the state probabilities. The models are natural generalizations of the exponential Lanchester square law model. In the first version, a marksman whose target is killed resumes afresh the killing process on a surviving target; in the second version, the marksman whose target is killed merely uses up his remaining time to a kill on a surviving target. Using the state probabilities we then compute such important combat measures as (1) the mean and variance of the number of survivors as they vary with time for each of the sides, (2) the win probabilities for each of the sides, and (3) the mean and variance of the battle duration time. As an application, computations were made for the specific case of a gamma (2) interfiring time random variable for each side and the above combat measures were compared with the appropriate exponential and deterministic Lanchester square law approximations. The latter two are shown to be very poor approximations in this case.     

A one-dimensional helicopter-submarine game

The article considers a two-person zero-sum game in which a searcher with b bombs wishes to destroy a mobile hider. The players are restricted to move on a straight line with maximum speeds v and u satisfying v > u > 0; neither player can see the other but each knows the other's initial position. The bombs all have destructive radius R and there is a time lag T between the release of a bomb and the bomb exploding. The searcher gets 1 unit if the hider is destroyed and 0 if he survives. A solution is given for b = 1, and extended to b > 1 when the time lag is small. Various applications of the game are discussed.     

Reforming China’s defense industry

ABSTRACT

Even with sizable economic inputs, access to foreign technologies, and considerable political will, China, up until the late 1990s, experienced only limited success when it came to the local design, development, and manufacture of advanced conventional weapons. Not surprisingly, therefore, reforming the local defense industry in order to upgrade its technology base and manufacturing capabilities and to make armaments production more efficient and cost-effective has long preoccupied the Chinese leadership. The fact that most of these efforts had little positive impact on the country’s military technological and industrial capabilities only encouraged Beijing to experiment with additional reforms in the hopes of finally getting it right.     

Likelihood estimation for generalized mixed exponential distributions

The class of functions expressed as linear (not necessarily convex) combinations of negative exponential functions is dense in the set of all square integrable functions on the nonnegative reals. Because of this and resultant mathematical properties, linear combinations of exponential densities have excellent potential for wide application in stochastic modeling. This work documents the development and testing of a practical procedure for maximum-likelihood estimation for these generalized exponential mixtures. The algorithm offered for the problem is of the Jacobi type and guarantees that the result will provide a legitimate probability function of the prescribed type. Extensive testing has been performed and results are very favorable: convergence is rapid and the use of computer resources rather limited.