This article extends the previous research on Markov duels (stochastic duels between weapons with Markov-dependent fire) to situations in which the time between rounds fired by each duelist is a continuous random variable that depends on the state of combat. Three starting conditions for the duels are considered: simultaneous detection, surprise by one duelist with continuous time detection by his opponent, and surprise with discrete time detection. The amount of surprise is treated as both a constant and a random variable. An application of these models to an evaluation of armored vehicles is described. The methods used to consider a variety of engagement ranges, tactical situations, and target types (both lethal and nonlethal) are discussed. The procedure for incorporating nonduel attrition into the analysis is described and the exchange rate (the expected number of enemy targets killed per armored vehicle killed) is derived. 相似文献
Determination of the gunfire probability of kill against a target requires two parameters to be taken into consideration: the likelihood of hitting the target (susceptibility) and the conditional probability of kill given a hit (vulnerability). Two commonly used methods for calculating the latter probability are (1) treating each hit upon the target independently, and (2) setting an exact number of hits to obtain a target kill. Each of these methods contains an implicit assumption about the probability distribution of the number of hits‐to‐kill. Method (1) assumes that the most likely kill scenario occurs with exactly one hit, whereas (2) implies that achieving a precise number of hits always results in a kill. These methods can produce significant differences in the predicted gun effectiveness, even if the mean number of hits‐to‐kill for each distribution is the same. We therefore introduce a new modeling approach with a more general distribution for the number of hits‐to‐kill. The approach is configurable to various classes of damage mechanism and is able to match both methods (1) and (2) with a suitable choice of parameter. We use this new approach to explore the influence of various damage accumulation models on the predicted effectiveness of weapon‐target engagements. 相似文献
In hinterland container transportation the use of barges is getting more and more important. We propose a real‐life operational planning problem model from an inland terminal operating company, in which the number of containers shipped per barge is maximized and the number of terminals visited per barge is minimized. This problem is solved with an integer linear program (ILP), yielding strong cost reductions, about 20%, compared to the method used currently in practice. Besides, we develop a heuristic that solves the ILP in two stages. First, it decides for each barge which terminals to visit and second it assigns containers to the barges. This heuristic produces almost always optimal solutions and otherwise near‐optimal solutions. Moreover, the heuristic runs much faster than the ILP, especially for large‐sized instances. 相似文献
When the US Air Force set out to acquire a new aerial tanker (the KC-X), two highly suitable alternatives were offered. What could have been a short and simple source selection turned into a prolonged embarrassment. The original selection of 100 leased KC-767s was made in May 2003. But the KC-46 is expected to be operational in 2017 – more than a decade later. Our primary purpose here is to narrate and explain key events in the KC-X program. We search for useful paradigms, based in part on the US Government being better viewed as a quarrelsome committee than a monopsonist. In addition, we consider what this case might tell us about the US defense acquisition system. 相似文献
America's Secret Power: the CIA in a Democratic Society. By Loch K. Johnson. Oxford University Press, New York (1989), ISBN 0–19–505490–3, $24.95
The Bundeswehr and Western Security. Edited by Stephen F. Szabo. Houndmills, Basingstoke, and Macmillan, London (1990), ISBN 0–333–49880–1, £45.00
Symbolic Defense: the Cultural Significance of the Strategic Defense Initiative. By Edward Tabor Linenthal. University of Illinois Press, Chicago, IL (1989), ISBN 0–252–01619‐X, $19.95
Rethinking European Security. Edited by Furio Cerutti and Rodolfo Ragionieri. Crane Russak, New York (1990), £29.00
Alternative Conventional Defense Postures in the European Theater, Vol. 1: The Military Balance and Domestic Constraints. Edited by Hans Günter Brauch and Robert Kennedy, Crane Russak, New York (1990), £32.00
The Gulf War. Edited by Hanns Maull and Otto Pick. Pinter, London (1989), ISBN 0–86187–763–2, £36.00 相似文献
This paper deals with the analysis of a model for studying the probability of survival of a subterranean target under an intensive attack. Most of the analysis is based on the assumption that the explosions are circularly distributed about the target and that the number of explosions is known. In the last two sections it is shown what effect a relaxation of these assumptions has on the probability of survival of the target. 相似文献
ABSTRACT This conceptual review examines institutional parameters that underpin farmer–herder conflicts in Tivland of Benue State, Nigeria. Anchored on the theory of New Institutionalism, it argues that tensions and conflicts between Tiv-farmers and the Fulani-herdsmen is occasioned largely by the disarticulation of the traditional institutional norms/rules of interaction by formal political institutions expressed in land use laws, West African sub-regional protocol, human rights provision of the Nigerian constitution and the Benue State law on anti-grazing. In these contrasting institutional forms, the formal political institution is prioritised by the state while farmers and herders are divided about the institutional basis of their coexistence. Farmers who host the herdsmen demonstrate preference for traditional norms of land ownership and control while the herdsmen incline towards new political/legal instruments which they interpret, purports to give them access to grazing lands and hence an alibi for rejecting institutions that contradict their claim to access spaces for pastoralism. Thus, persisting claims to the exercise of rights to freedom of movement and access to grazing land as opposed to claims to traditional rights of ownership and control of ancestral lands explain the origin and continuity of the farmer–herder conflicts in Benue state, Nigeria. 相似文献