French Arms Exports and Intrastate Conflicts: An Empirical Investigation

The aim of this article is to evaluate how French Major Conventional Weapons (MCW) exports impact on the conflict intensity of recipient countries. The recent increase in French arms exports seems to contradict the French political discourse on the promotion of regional stability. We run zero-inflated ordered probit model in order to analyze the role of the arms trade on the intensity of civil conflicts in 144 countries from 1992 to 2014, using SIPRI and UCDP/PRIO data. Our results suggest that French MCW exports tended not to exacerbate intrastate conflicts during this period. This finding is robust to changes in the empirical framework. We propose two lines of explanations: France seems to be prone to choosing partners that respect human rights and selling more ‘defense-oriented’ MCW than the rest of the world.     

The origins of the cancellation of Canada's Avro CF-105 arrow fighter program: A failure of strategy

The story of the demise of Canada's remarkable CF-105 Arrow jet-fighter interceptor has been told and retold by numerous Canadian writers. As told by most, it is a tragic tale. Canadian Prime Minister John Diefenbaker, in an act as unforgivable as it was incomprehensible, not only destroyed a highly promising all-Canadian state-of-the-art aircraft but ruined all hopes of Canada ever being an important player in the North American defense industry. This article offers a contrasting interpretation — locating the problems leading to the aircraft's cancellation further back in history, and in particular in serious and determinative failures in strategic thinking and analysis by senior Canadian military officials at the time of the Arrow program's birth in 1953.     

Dynamic pricing and inventory control with learning

Optimal operating policies and corresponding managerial insight are developed for the decision problem of coordinating supply and demand when (i) both supply and demand can be influenced by the decision maker and (ii) learning is pursued. In particular, we determine optimal stocking and pricing policies over time when a given market parameter of the demand process, though fixed, initially is unknown. Because of the initially unknown market parameter, the decision maker begins the problem horizon with a subjective probability distribution associated with demand. Learning occurs as the firm monitors the market's response to its decisions and then updates its characterization of the demand function. Of primary interest is the effect of censored data since a firm's observations often are restricted to sales. We find that the first‐period optimal selling price increases with the length of the problem horizon. However, for a given problem horizon, prices can rise or fall over time, depending on how the scale parameter influences demand. Further results include the characterization of the optimal stocking quantity decision and a computationally viable algorithm. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 303–325, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10013     

Opportunity-based age replacement: Exponentially distributed times between opportunities

This article gives a full analysis of a component-replacement model in which preventive replacements are only possible at maintenance opportunities. These opportunities arise according to a Poisson process, independently of failures of the component. Conditions for the existence of a unique average optimal control limit policy are established and an equation characterizing the optimal policy and minimal average costs is derived. An important result is that the optimal policy can be described as a so-called one-opportunity-look-ahead policy. Such policies play an important role as heuristics in more general models. It is shown that there is a correspondence with the well-known age-replacement model, which can be considered as an extreme case of the model. Finally, some numerical results are given.     

On excess-, current-, and total-life distributions of phase-type renewal processes

Consider a renewal process whose interrenewal-time distribution is phase type with representation (α, T). We show that the (time-dependent) excess-life distribution is phase type with representation (α′, T), where α′ is an appropriately modified initial probability vector. Using this result, we derive the (time-dependent) distributions for the current life and the total life of the phase-type renewal process. They in turn enable us to obtain the equilibrium distributions for the three random variables. These results simplify the computation of the respective distribution functions and consequently enhance the potential use of renewal theory in stochastic modeling—particularly in inventory, queueing, and reliability applications. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Cycles and trends in the procurement system: Anticipating changes in acquisition legislation, regulation and policy

In conclusion, let me raise the question of whether the Law Panel can impact these cycles or reverse these trends. If they are regarded as historical imperatives, the answer is clearly No. But we have been urged to be bold and to try to devise a new, simplified statute that will take us back to a better day. We are going to do that, without regard to the question whether Congress will accept the solution.

There probably has never been a better time for the Panel's report than the present; the window of opportunity is open. But what the Panel recommends is going to be awfully hard to sell, even in a window-of-opportunity year. If the predictions come true about the defense budget's going down to the level of the period when Eisenhower remained a Major for 14 years, maybe Congress will be receptive to anything that adds a little bit of value to the defense dollar. With this in mind, the Law Panel is likely to be very bold in its attempt to streamline the procurement system and reduce oversight. Hope springs eternal . . . .     

Landmarks in defense literature

Achtung-Panzer! By Major General Heinz Guderian, Translated by Christopher Duffy with Introduction and Notes by Paul Harris. (Arms & Armour Press £16.99. ISBN 1-85409-138-7, 220 pages)