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Quantiles, also known as value‐at‐risks in the financial industry, are important measures of random performances. Quantile sensitivities provide information on how changes in input parameters affect output quantiles. They are very useful in risk management. In this article, we study the estimation of quantile sensitivities using stochastic simulation. We propose a kernel estimator and prove that it is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed for outputs from both terminating and steady‐state simulations. The theoretical analysis and numerical experiments both show that the kernel estimator is more efficient than the batching estimator of Hong 9 . © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009 相似文献
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Motivated by challenges in the smartphone manufacturing industry, we develop a dynamic production ramp-up model that can be applied to economically satisfy nonstationary demand for short-life-cycle products by high-tech companies. Due to shorter life cycles and more rapid evolution of smartphones, production ramp-up has been increasingly critical to the success of a new smartphone. In the production ramp-up, the key challenge is to match the increasing capacity to nonstationary demand. The high-tech smartphone manufacturers are urged to jointly consider the effect of increasing capacity and decreasing demand. We study the production planning problem using a high-dimensional Markov decision process (MDP) model to characterize the production ramp-up. To address the curse of dimensionality, we refine Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) algorithm and theoretically analyze its convergence and computational complexity. In a real case study, we find that the MDP model achieves revenue improvement by stopping producing the existing product earlier than the benchmark policy. In synthetic instances, we validate that the proposed MCTS algorithm saves computation time without loss of solution quality compared with traditional value iteration algorithm. As part of the Lenovo production solution, our MDP model enables high-tech smartphone manufacturers to better plan the production ramp-up. 相似文献
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随着空间事故和失效航天器的增多,地球附近的轨道资源越来越紧张。如今世界各国都在大力发展在轨服务和太空碎片清除,作为其中最关键的技术之一,空间非合作目标捕获近年来成了太空研究领域的重点。目前,国内外各大研究机构针对非合作目标进行了深入研究,并提出了多种捕获方法,取得了较大的进展。对非合作目标进行分类,基于现有的捕获方法介绍了国内外非合作目标捕获技术发展的最新状况,总结了原理方案,分析了捕获方法和关键技术,为我国后续开展相关研究提供了一种研究思路。 相似文献
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This note studies the optimal inspection policies in a supply chain in which a manufacturer purchases components from a supplier but has no direct control of component quality. The manufacturer uses an inspection policy and a damage cost sharing contract to encourage the supplier to improve the component quality. We find that all‐or‐none inspection policies are optimal for the manufacturer if the supplier's share of the damage cost is larger than a threshold; otherwise, the manufacturer should inspect a fraction of a batch. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008 相似文献
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不断完善高等教育的教学评价体系是提升课程质量和人才培养水平的重要手段.近年来,笔者所在的教学团队针对“生物化学实验”课程中教学评价方式中存在的问题,以培养学生实践创新能力为导向,倡导由传统的终结性评价向多元化形成性教学评价转变,构建和完善了相关评价体系.在实施过程中经过不断的改革与创新,取得了良好效果. 相似文献
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