边境安全风险分析系统的构建研究

提出了信息化背景下边境安全风险情报分析的基本概念及其内涵,论述了信息化背景下边境安全风险分析系统的架构和面向边境安全风险分析的信息组织方式。     

Impact of reseller's and sales agent's forecasting accuracy in a multilayer supply chain

We consider a three‐layer supply chain with a manufacturer, a reseller, and a sales agent. The demand is stochastically determined by the random market condition and the sales agent's private effort level. Although the manufacturer is uninformed about the market condition, the reseller and the sales agent conduct demand forecasting and generate private demand signals. Under this framework with two levels of adverse selection intertwined with moral hazard, we study the impact of the reseller's and the sales agent's forecasting accuracy on the profitability of each member. We show that the manufacturer's profitability is convex on the reseller's forecasting accuracy. From the manufacturer's perspective, typically improving the reseller's accuracy is detrimental when the accuracy is low but is beneficial when it is high. We identify the concrete interrelation among the manufacturer‐optimal reseller's accuracy, the volatility of the market condition, and the sales agent's accuracy. Finally, the manufacturer's interest may be aligned with the reseller's when only the reseller can choose her accuracy; this alignment is never possible when both downstream players have the discretion to choose their accuracy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 207–222, 2014     

The burglar problem with multiple options

We consider the burglar problem in which a burglar can either retire or choose among different types of burglaries, with each type having its own success probability and reward distribution. Some general structural results are established and, in the case of exponentially distributed reward distributions, a solution technique is presented. The burglar problem's relationship to a stochastic knapsack problem with a random exponentially distributed knapsack capacity is shown. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 359–364, 2014     

Return policy: Hassle‐free or your money‐back guarantee?

This article compares the profitability of two pervasively adopted return policies—money‐back guarantee and hassle‐free policies. In our model, a seller sells to consumers with heterogeneous valuations and hassle costs. Products are subject to quality risk, and product misfit can only be observed post‐purchase. While the hassle‐free policy is cost advantageous from the seller's viewpoint, a money‐back guarantee allows the seller to fine‐tune the consumer hassle on returning the product. Thus, when the two return policies lead to the same consumer behaviors, the hassle‐free policy dominates. Conversely, a money‐back guarantee can be more profitable even if on average, high‐valuation consumers experience a lower hassle cost than the low‐valuation ones. The optimal hassle cost can be higher when product quality gets improved; thus, it is not necessarily a perfect proxy or signal of the seller's quality. We further allow the seller to adopt a mixture of these policies, and identify the concrete operating regimes within which these return policies are optimal among more flexible policies. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 403–417, 2014     

Strategic outsourcing under technology spillovers

We study a supply chain in which an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and a contract manufacturer (CM) compete in the finished goods market. The OEM can decide whether to outsource the intermediate good, a critical component for producing the finished good, from the CM or make in‐house production. Technology transition improves the CM's production efficiency, and it can take two different forms: a direct technology transfer from the OEM to the CM or technology spillovers through outsourcing from the OEM to the CM. We document the possibility of strategic outsourcing, that is, the CM supplies the intermediate good to the OEM when she is less efficient than the OEM's in‐house production. We find that technology spillovers can strengthen the incentive for strategic outsourcing. Furthermore, compared with direct technology transfers, outsourcing coupled with technology spillovers may generate more technology transition. Outsourcing is a particularly appropriate channel for implicit collusion when the OEM is not very efficient with the production of the intermediate good. Our results suggest that ex post competition on the finished goods can create room for ex ante collaboration and provide some implications on the OEM's outsourcing strategies when facing a competitive CM.© 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 501–514, 2014     

动态拓扑图的卫星网络可视化方法

针对高度动态变化的卫星网络,提出一种基于动态拓扑图的可视化方法。动态拓扑图可视化的难点在于如何保持动态可视化过程中的稳定性,从而使用户容易地感知到网络中所发生的拓扑变化。根据卫星网络的动态变化特点,构建连续的动态拓扑图模型;设计一种保持布局稳定性的策略,并基于力引导思想提出一种动态拓扑图布局算法;以Iridium系统为典型实例,验证本文的可视化方法的合理性和可行性。实验表明,该方法能够以清晰的可视化图像支持用户对卫星网络动态拓扑的感知和理解。     

一种基于SIFT特征的抗几何攻击水印算法研究

尺度不变特征变换描述子已经应用于数字图像水印的构造,但图像存在相似区域时易造成误匹配问题,基于此提出一种改进的RIT—SIFT数字图像水印算法．水印嵌入时先对图像进行分块,然后将水印分别嵌入子块的非下采样Contourlet变换低频子带中,既简化了水印嵌人又增加了嵌入容量．图像匹配时利用SIFT算法在原始图像中寻找局部特征点,将旋转不变纹理特征信息融合到传统SIFT特征向量中,更加全面地描述图像信息,提高了匹配精度．实验结果表明,提出的算法是有效的,对全局和局部几何攻击、组合攻击以及常规攻击均具有很好的鲁棒性．     

基于步进加速寿命试验的制导弹药储存寿命评估

介绍步进应力加速寿命试验原理,通过对制导弹药自动导引头贮存状态和失效机理的分析,确定了加速寿命试验应力和应力水平．假设产品寿命服从威布尔分布,应用极大似然估计和Bayes的方法处理数据,建立制导弹药可靠储存寿命预测模型,并计算得到自动导引头在正常应力水平下的可靠储存寿命．     

基于Hurst指数的油罐声发射信号分析

由油罐声发射检测直接得出油罐底板状态等级的评价研究工作有待完善。提出一种基于Hurst指数理论分析声发射信号幅值最大值分布的评价方法。从Hurst指数分形理论出发,结合声发射信号参数处理方法,给出研究条件假设,分析现场油罐声发射信号结果,并与开罐检测的底板状况加以对比分析。研究发现,相同检测条件,同种类型油罐底板状态等级与Hurst指数呈相反的关系。     

LEACH—DRT算法中基于神经网络的数据预测算法

为了保证无线传感器网络中数据的完整性,针对基于LEACH路由协议的动态轮时间算法存在的问题,提出一种基于人工神经网络的数据预测算法。该动态轮时间算法中,部分簇因调整后的轮时间不足以完成数据的采集而丢失数据。数据预测算法结合传感器节点数据具有时空相关性的特点,将时空延迟算子引入神经网络模型,并通过建立的神经网络模型对数据进行预测。仿真时采用伯克利英特尔实验室的传感器数据,通过Mafl软件对模型进行测试并分析仿真结果。实验结果表明：该算法对连续多个数据的预测效果理想,预测误差始终保持在较低水平。