步兵三角队形作战能力的评估

结合步兵战斗队形——三角队形的实际作战特点,考虑战斗中可能出现的具体情况,提出相关假设,并依据此假设分别建立了枪械的命中概率模型和命中有防护目标、无防护目标后的毁伤模型。具体地分析了敌我双方进行三次有效交火(存在死伤)后的队形变化情况,最终得出该步兵战斗队形的完成目标任务的概率,并以此概率值评估该三角队形的作战能力。     

Evaluating the potential effects from probabilistic selling of similar products

In this article, we consider an online retailer who sells two similar products (A and B) over a finite selling period. Any stock left at the end of the period has no value (like clothes going out of fashion at the end of a season). Aside from selling the products at regular prices, he may offer an additional option that sells a probabilistic good, “A or B,” at a discounted price. Whenever a customer buys a probabilistic good, he needs to assign one of the products for the fulfillment. Considering the choice behavior of potential customers, we model the problem using continuous‐time, discrete‐state, finite‐horizon dynamic programming. We study the optimal admission decisions and devise two scenarios, whose value functions can be used as benchmarks to evaluate the demand induction effect and demand dilution effect of probabilistic selling (PS). We further investigate an extension of the base MDP (Markov Decision Process) model in which the fulfillment of probabilistic sales is uncontrollable by the retailer. A special case of the extended model can be used as a benchmark to quantify the potential inventory pooling effect of PS. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the overall profit improvement, and the effects from adopting the PS strategy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 61: 604–620, 2014     

大气对流层气体组分随高度变化的理论预期

利用大气对流层温度随高度变化的规律,采用局部平衡的多分子混合模型,从理论上论证了对流层气体组分随高度变化的规律,发现大气各主要成分体积分数、分子平均摩尔质量均随高度线性变化,并拟合数值计算结果得到了相关参数。氧气的相对体积分数随高度明显下降,而氮气的相对体积分数却明显上升;但是相比于温度随高度的变化,大气分子平均摩尔质量的改变可以忽略。该理论比以往其他模型预测大气压强随高度变化规律具有更自然、更接近实际的优势。     

某型油料装备升降机公理化设计与方案评价

公理化设计理论为油料装备设计提供了一种新的科学性指导思想。基于公理化设计理论,对某型油料装备升降机进行了设计,并结合正态云模型,使用模糊信息公理对2种不同设计方案进行了评价。通过分析用户需求,给出升降机相应的功能需求和设计参数以及升降机＂之＂字形映射设计过程。使用三维造型软件进行造型和运动仿真,验证了升降机设计的可行性。基于公理化设计理论对油料装备升降机进行了设计和方案选择,验证了该设计方法的有效性。     

[AXB,GXH]=[C,D]对称最小二乘解及最佳逼近的极小残差法

构造迭代算法研究了矩阵方程[AXB,GXH] = [C,D] ,证明了该算法可经有限步得到方程的对称最小二乘解及其最佳逼近,并给出了相关性质.最后,通过数值例子表明该算法是有效的.     

潜艇通信侦测与防御探讨

从通信对抗角度出发,简述了实现通信侦测的样式,重点论述了通信防御的主要技术手段。并结合潜艇兵力的特殊性,以提高其航渡隐蔽性为出发点,基于通信侦测与防御进行探讨。     

Designing acceptance sampling schemes for life testing with mixed censoring

Mixed censoring is useful extension of Type I and Type II censoring and combines some advantages of both types of censoring. This paper proposes a general Bayesian framework for designing a variable acceptance sampling scheme with mixed censoring. A general loss function which includes the sampling cost, the time‐consuming cost, the salvage value, and the decision loss is employed to determine the Bayes risk and the corresponding optimal sampling plan. An explicit expression of the Bayes risk is derived. The new model can easily be adapted to create life testing models for different distributions. Specifically, two commonly used distributions including the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution are considered with a special decision loss function. We demonstrate that the proposed model is superior to models with Type I or Type II censoring. Numerical examples are reported to illustrate the effectiveness of the method proposed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Resource allocation with lumpy demand: To speed or not to speed?

In the classical EPQ model with continuous and constant demand, holding and setup costs are minimized when the production rate is no larger than the demand rate. However, the situation may change when demand is lumpy. We consider a firm that produces multiple products, each having a unique lumpy demand pattern. The decision involves determining both the lot size for each product and the allocation of resources for production rate improvements among the products. We find that each product's optimal production policy will take on only one of two forms: either continuous production or lot‐for‐lot production. The problem is then formulated as a nonlinear nonsmooth knapsack problem among products determined to be candidates for resource allocation. A heuristic procedure is developed to determine allocation amounts. The procedure decomposes the problem into a mixed integer program and a nonlinear convex resource allocation problem. Numerical tests suggest that the heuristic performs very well on average compared to the optimal solution. Both the model and the heuristic procedure can be extended to allow the company to simultaneously alter both the production rates and the incoming demand lot sizes through quantity discounts. Extensions can also be made to address the case where a single investment increases the production rate of multiple products. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

基于GO法的多阶段共因失效任务系统可靠性评估

为了解决部件阶段依赖性与共因失效给系统可靠性分析带来的复杂性,针对多阶段共因失效任务系统,结合GO法易于处理有时序、含共因失效系统可靠性分析的特点,首先,将前一阶段的输出信号作为后一阶段的输入信号,建模时首尾连接各阶段模型,建立整个任务系统的隐性GO模型;其次,在进行各信号流状态组合运算时,融入阶段代数处理部件的阶段依赖性;再次,用隐性共因失效分析,将共因失效对系统的影响在状态组合的定量分析中表达出来,得到所需系统可靠性指标;最后,与基于二元决策图的算法进行对比验证。结果表明:GO法可以简捷、准确地处理多阶段共因失效任务系统可靠性评估问题。     

基于强迫换流原理的新型真空直流限流断路器

提出了一种基于现有强迫换流型真空直流断路器的改进方案,并通过在高速真空开关两端并联反向续流二极管,使真空开关在电弧电流强迫过零后由于二极管的续流作用得到零电压介质强度恢复时间,提高了真空灭弧室电流过零后的介质强度恢复速度,使真空开关得以在小间隙下分断高上升率的短路电流,提高了传统真空直流断路器的限流、分断能力。设计了限流断路器样机,进行了短路分断试验。试验结果表明:所设计的限流断路器能将最大上升率为20A/μs的短路电流限流至10kA以下,限流分断时间小于1.1ms,满足了现代舰船极限短路故障的保护要求。