武器系统的可靠性评估方法研究

武器系统的可靠性是武器装备研究的重要内容,而评估可靠性的方法又是可靠性研究的关键,本文尝试对武器系统可靠性的评估方法进行了探讨。     

Probabilistic resource pooling games

We study a setting with a single type of resource and with several players, each associated with a single resource (of this type). Unavailability of these resources comes unexpectedly and with player‐specific costs. Players can cooperate by reallocating the available resources to the ones that need the resources most and let those who suffer the least absorb all the costs. We address the cost savings allocation problem with concepts of cooperative game theory. In particular, we formulate a probabilistic resource pooling game and study them on various properties. We show that these games are not necessarily convex, do have non‐empty cores, and are totally balanced. The latter two are shown via an interesting relationship with Böhm‐Bawerk horse market games. Next, we present an intuitive class of allocation rules for which the resulting allocations are core members and study an allocation rule within this class of allocation rules with an appealing fairness property. Finally, we show that our results can be applied to a spare parts pooling situation.     

基于引导员负荷的指挥引导容量评估

针对目前传统指挥引导容量评估不准确的问题,通过对空战指挥引导容量与引导员负荷的综合分析,提出了基于引导员负荷的指挥引导容量评估方法。基于引导员负荷重新定义了指挥引导容量,给出了引导员负荷的确定方法,并建立了指挥引导容量评估模型。最后对某指挥机构进行实例评估,评估结果表明所提出的指挥引导容量评估方法将评估误差控制在1批之内。     

SVM在空中目标威胁值评估中的应用

构建了基于回归型支持向量机的空中目标威胁值评估模型,确定了基于粗糙集理论的空中目标威胁因素,并建立了数据离散化、归一化的标准。将常用的4种核函数应用于对空中目标威胁值的估计,并通过基于网格法和遗传算法的搜索方法找到模型的最优参数。最后通过Matlab对算例进行了仿真验证。     

基于同心筒结构的共架发射系统武器发射空域协调方法

为保证舰艇和武器系统安全,针对多武器共架发射时的发射协调问题,提出了空域协调的方法。首先,定义了空域协调的概念,分析了燃气排导、初始飞行弹道交叉对空域协调的影响;然后,通过判断发射活动、隔舱距离排序、隔舱属性赋值、判断隔舱相邻及弹道交叉等影响因素提出了空域协调的具体步骤;最后,对空域协调方法进行了算例验证。结果表明:通过空域上合理地选择武器(弹位)可以有效避免共架武器发射时产生干涉,保证系统安全。该方法对解决多类型舰载武器发射协调问题有借鉴意义。     

ESD EMP能量耦合线性化建模

针对利用非线性建模方法研究静电放电电磁脉冲(Electro Static Discharge Electro Magnetic Pulse,ESD EMP)能量耦合存在计算复杂、模型收敛性能较差的问题,基于ESD辐照实验提出了一种非线性系统线性化建模方法。该方法是将系统响应与激励间的非线性关系转化为线性关系后,利用带遗忘因子的递推最小二乘法进行线性回归来建立模型。首先利用3.5 k V ESD实验数据进行建模,然后应用3.5 kV、4.5 kV ESD实验数据进行模型验证,2种情况下的拟合度均达到94.303 3%。结果表明:线性化建模能有效降低建模难度,且模型精度较高,为ESD能量耦合研究提供了一种简便有效的建模方法。     

Layers of Experiments with Adaptive Combined Design

In the field of nanofabrication, engineers often face unique challenges in resource‐limited experimental budgets, the sensitive nature of process behavior with respect to controllable variables, and highly demanding tolerance requirements. To effectively overcome these challenges, this article proposes a methodology for a sequential design of experiments through batches of experimental runs, aptly named Layers of Experiments with Adaptive Combined Design (LoE/ACD). In higher layers, where process behavior is less understood, experimental regions cover more design space and data points are more spread out. In lower layers, experimental regions are more focused to improve understanding of process sensitivities in a local, data‐rich environment. The experimental design is a combination of a space‐filling and an optimal design with a tuning parameter that is dependent on the amount of information accumulated over the various layers. The proposed LoE/ACD method is applied to optimize a carbon dioxide (epet‐CO2) assisted deposition process for fabricating silver nanoparticles with pressure and temperature variables. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 127–142, 2015     

Single batch machine scheduling with deliveries

We consider the problem of scheduling a set of n jobs on a single batch machine, where several jobs can be processed simultaneously. Each job j has a processing time p_j and a size s_j. All jobs are available for processing at time 0. The batch machine has a capacity D. Several jobs can be batched together and processed simultaneously, provided that the total size of the jobs in the batch does not exceed D. The processing time of a batch is the largest processing time among all jobs in the batch. There is a single vehicle available for delivery of the finished products to the customer, and the vehicle has capacity K. We assume that K = rD, where and r is an integer. The travel time of the vehicle is T; that is, T is the time from the manufacturer to the customer. Our goal is to find a schedule of the jobs and a delivery plan so that the service span is minimized, where the service span is the time that the last job is delivered to the customer. We show that if the jobs have identical sizes, then we can find a schedule and delivery plan in time such that the service span is minimum. If the jobs have identical processing times, then we can find a schedule and delivery plan in time such that the service span is asymptotically at most 11/9 times the optimal service span. When the jobs have arbitrary processing times and arbitrary sizes, then we can find a schedule and delivery plan in time such that the service span is asymptotically at most twice the optimal service span. We also derive upper bounds of the absolute worst‐case ratios in both cases. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 470–482, 2015     

高超声速飞行器新息滤波交互式多模型跟踪算法

研究临近空间高超声速飞行器在运动特点,针对强杂波环境下高速、高机动目标跟踪问题,提出用新息滤波减小观测噪声以修正模型概率更新过程的算法。Monte-Carlo仿真结果表明:该算法可以有效减小量测噪声对系统滤波的影响,提高滤波精度,在临近空间强杂波环境下具有较好的跟踪精度,具有一定工程实用价值。     

燃烧室-喷管流场数值解

本文用时间相关法计算了固体火箭发动机燃烧室─喷管亚跨声速流场数值解,控制方程用ＭａｃＣｏｒｍａｃｋ二步显格式：边界点参数用物理边界条件和参考平面上的特征方程计算。计算表明,达到收敛的数值积分步数比纯喷管的跨声速计算要多得多。虽然喷管壁上和轴线上的马赫数分布与纯喷管计算类似,但喷管中的等马赫线分布与纯喷管计算的结果［３］相差较远。