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针对钢质油罐底板腐蚀,首先分析了油罐底板腐蚀工程检测数据的特点和腐蚀试验数据统计分析理论;然后针对工程检测信息不完全的特性,以最大腐蚀深度的预测估计为目标,建立了以轻微腐蚀面积估计来实现腐蚀概率修正估计的模型;最后利用广州等地27个罐约900条检测数据估计了油罐底板的最大腐蚀深度。其最大相对误差小于45%,约80%的相对误差优于30%。 相似文献
83.
Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organization is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce uncertainty and thus to improve forecasting performance. One intuitively appealing such approach is to aggregate demand in lower‐frequency “time buckets.” The approach under concern is termed to as temporal aggregation, and in this article, we investigate its impact on forecasting performance. We assume that the nonaggregated demand follows either a moving average process of order one or a first‐order autoregressive process and a single exponential smoothing (SES) procedure is used to forecast demand. These demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry. Theoretical mean‐squared error expressions are derived for the aggregated and nonaggregated demand to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation and experimentation with an empirical dataset. The results indicate that performance improvements achieved through the aggregation approach are a function of the aggregation level, the smoothing constant, and the process parameters. Valuable insights are offered to practitioners and the article closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 479–498, 2013 相似文献
84.
Firms form various alliances or use brand extensions to enter new markets in order to improve their operational efficiency and create a positive spillover. However, they do not always know the implications of these strategies for market entry and multimarket competition because the sale of products in one market can have negative spillover effects on product sales in other markets. We present an analytical framework to examine whether and how (i.e., by choosing alliance entry or independent entry) competing firms should enter a market in a situation where market spillovers occur when a firm enters a spillover-producing market to sell products that may increase or decrease the consumers' willingness to pay for products in the primary market. Our analysis shows that the operational efficiency (or quality differentiation ability) of firms in a spillover-producing market varies, and hence, the impact of market spillovers differs for firms. We identify the key factors, such as bargaining power, brand value difference in the primary market, and the extent of efficiencies and spillovers, that determine the firms benefitting from the different entry strategies. Specifically, we show that firms would be more willing to choose an alliance strategy to enter a spillover-producing market if the negative spillover is small and alliance efficiency is high. In contrast, if an alliance entry is not favored, the firms' relative operational efficiency is crucial for them to decide whether to enter the market independently under moderate spillover conditions. Finally, we show the implications of market entry strategies for managers. 相似文献
85.
为实现快速准确测定空气中的甲醛,对4种氨基酸作为乙酰丙酮显色法的胺源进行对比分析,发现甘氨酸的显色效果较明显;对显色温度和显色时间进行优化,发现显色温度在50℃,反应15 min,显色效果明显。把显色剂固定到透明聚丙烯酸树脂球上,制备出可在家庭中方便使用的显色球,通过肉眼观察即可判断空气中甲醛的质量浓度,检测限达0.008 mg/m3。 相似文献
86.
为提高军队自动化立体仓库的出库能力,提出应根据需求变化对在库物资货位进行动态调整,从而最大限度地保障军队物资需求。综合考虑堆垛机总行程、货物离散度和出库频率等评价指标,采用遗传算法对该多目标优化问题进行求解,并运用Matalab仿真。结果表明,该方法能较好地提高军队自动化立体仓库在需求动态变化时的出库能力。同时,该研究对一般仓库的货位优化也有一定的借鉴意义。 相似文献
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Mean residual life of coherent systems consisting of multiple types of dependent components
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Mean residual life is a useful dynamic characteristic to study reliability of a system. It has been widely considered in the literature not only for single unit systems but also for coherent systems. This article is concerned with the study of mean residual life for a coherent system that consists of multiple types of dependent components. In particular, the survival signature based generalized mixture representation is obtained for the survival function of a coherent system and it is used to evaluate the mean residual life function. Furthermore, two mean residual life functions under different conditional events on components’ lifetimes are also defined and studied. 相似文献
89.
对即时改进和延缓改进两种维修性增长规划方式进行了趋势检验研究.针对即时改进的维修性增长规划方式,提出了趋势检验的图示法和Laplace方法.针对延缓改进的维修性增长规划方式,根据修复率(第i阶段的修复率为μi)的顺序约束条件:∞>μm≥…≥μi≥…≥μ2≥μ1>0,探讨了指数分布和正态分布维修性增长趋势检验的区间估计法,并结合数值例说明了这些方法的可行性. 相似文献
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