The political economy of drones

This paper provides a political economy analysis of the evolution of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), or ‘drones’ in the USA. Focus is placed on the interplay between the polity and private economic influences, and their impact on the trajectory of political, economic, and military outcomes. We identify the initial formation of the drone industry, trace how the initial relationships between the military and the private sector expanded over time, and discuss present relationships. Understanding the historical evolution of UAV technology, as well as the major players in the industry today, is important for ongoing policy debates regarding the use of drones both domestically and internationally.     

NUCLEAR STABILITY AT LOW NUMBERS

Chinese writings on the workings of nuclear stability, deterrence, and coercion are thin and politicized. Nevertheless, it is possible to glean, from direct and inferential evidence, rather pessimistic conclusions regarding Chinese views of nuclear stability at low numbers. While China has been living with low numbers in its own arsenal for decades, today it views missile defense and advanced conventional weapons as the primary threat to nuclear stability. More generally, China views nuclear stability as wedded to political amity. Because none of these would be directly addressed through further US and Russian arsenal reductions, China is unlikely to view such reductions as particularly stabilizing. While there is little in Chinese writing to suggest lower US and Russian numbers would encourage a “race to parity,” there are grounds to worry about China becoming more assertive as it gains confidence in Beijing's own increasingly secure second-strike forces.     

基于Hurst指数的油罐声发射信号分析

由油罐声发射检测直接得出油罐底板状态等级的评价研究工作有待完善。提出一种基于Hurst指数理论分析声发射信号幅值最大值分布的评价方法。从Hurst指数分形理论出发,结合声发射信号参数处理方法,给出研究条件假设,分析现场油罐声发射信号结果,并与开罐检测的底板状况加以对比分析。研究发现,相同检测条件,同种类型油罐底板状态等级与Hurst指数呈相反的关系。     

LEACH—DRT算法中基于神经网络的数据预测算法

为了保证无线传感器网络中数据的完整性,针对基于LEACH路由协议的动态轮时间算法存在的问题,提出一种基于人工神经网络的数据预测算法。该动态轮时间算法中,部分簇因调整后的轮时间不足以完成数据的采集而丢失数据。数据预测算法结合传感器节点数据具有时空相关性的特点,将时空延迟算子引入神经网络模型,并通过建立的神经网络模型对数据进行预测。仿真时采用伯克利英特尔实验室的传感器数据,通过Mafl软件对模型进行测试并分析仿真结果。实验结果表明：该算法对连续多个数据的预测效果理想,预测误差始终保持在较低水平。     

The 1907 Naval War Plans and the second Hague peace conference: A case of propaganda 1

The phenomenon of mutual sea denial had rendered offensive naval actions such as commercial blockade impossible in the narrow seas around Europe. Consequently, the First Sea Lord, Admiral Sir John Fisher, abandoned commercial blockade for the safer option of interdicting enemy commerce on the high seas where the Royal Navy could control communications. The proposal to extend immunity to all private property at sea at the 1907 Hague Conference threatened this strategy. As part of a wider campaign to convince the British establishment to oppose immunity, Fisher created the 1907 Naval War Plans to directly influence Cabinet decision-making. Fisher's close involvement in the creation of the ‘Plans’ indicates that they are an expression of Fisher's strategic vision. Moreover, Fisher's attempt to influence the Cabinet asks questions of the bureaucratic decision-making process within the British establishment before 1914.     

Joint inventory and pricing decisions for perishable products with two‐period lifetime

We consider a periodic review model over a finite horizon for a perishable product with fixed lifetime equal to two review periods. The excess demand in a period is backlogged. The optimal replenishment and demand management (using price) decisions for such a product depend on the relative order of consumption of fresh and old units. We obtain insights on the structure of these decisions when the order of consumption is first‐in, first‐out and last‐in, first‐out. For the FIFO system, we also obtain bounds on both the optimal replenishment quantity as well as expected demand. We compare the FIFO system to two widely analyzed inventory systems that correspond to nonperishable and one‐period lifetime products to understand if demand management would modify our understanding of the relationship among the three systems. In a counterintuitive result, we find that it is more likely that bigger orders are placed in the FIFO system than for a nonperishable product when demand is managed. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Book Reviews

Iain McCallum, Blood Brothers Hiram and Hudson Maxim: Pioneers of Modern Warfare. London: Chatham, 1999. Pp. 224, 33 illus., 2 maps, biblio., index. £20. ISBN 1–86176–096–5.

Eric Ash, Sir Frederick Sykes and the Air Revolution, 1912–1918. London and Portland, OR: Frank Cass, 1999. Pp.xviii + 268, 20 illus., 3 maps, biblio., index. £42.50/$59.50 (cloth), £18.50/$27.50 (paper). ISBN 0–7146–4828–0 and ‐4382–3.

Azar Gat, Fascist and Liberal Visions of War: Fuller, Liddell Hart, Douhet, and other Modernists. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1998. Ppviii + 334, biblio., index. £45. ISBN 0–19–820715–8.

David B. Woolner (ed.), The Second Quebec Conference Revisited: Waging War, Formulating Peace: Canada, Great Britain, and the United States in 1944–1945. Basingstoke; London: Macmillan Press, 1998. Pp.xiii + 210, index. £32.50. ISBN 0–333–75970–2.

Jeffrey Grey. Up Top: The Royal Australian Navy and Southeast Asian Conflicts 1955–1972. St Leonards NSW: Allen &; Unwin in association with the Australian War Memorial, 1998. Pp.xx + 380, 110 illus., 12 tables, 23 maps &; diagrams, appendices, notes, biblio., index. NP. ISBN 1–86448–290–7.

Susan L Carruthers, The Media at War. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 2000. Pp.321, biblio., index. £14.99 (paper). ISBN 0–333–69143–1, also available in hardback.

Edward J. Marolda and Robert J. Schneller Jr, Shield and Sword: The United States Navy and the Persian Gulf War. Washington DC: Naval Historical Center, 1998. Pp.xxi + 517, 120 illus., 14 maps, biblio., index. NP. ISBN 0–1604–9476–1.

Marvin Pokrant, Desert Shield at Sea: What the Navy Really Did and Desert Storm at Sea: What the Navy Really Did. Both Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1999. Pp.xxiii + 265,9 illus., biblio., index. £44.95. ISBN 0–313–31023–8. Pp.xxiv + 329,12 illus., biblio., index. NP. ISBN 0–313–31024–6.

David Kaularich and Ronald C. Kramer, Crimes of the American Nuclear State: At Home and Abroad. Boston: Northeastern University Press, 1999. Pp.xviii + 195, biblio., index. £42.75. ISBN 1–55553–371‐X.

Stanley Hoffmann, World Disorders: Troubled Peace in the Post‐Cold War Era. Lanham, MD: Rowman &; Littlefield, 1998. Pp.viii+279, notes, index. $29.95. ISBN 0–8476–8574–8.

Lawrence Freedman (ed.), Strategic Coercion: Concepts and Cases. Oxford: Oxford‐University Press, 1998. Pp.400, index. £48. ISBN 0–19–829–349–6.

Stephen J. Cimbala, Coercive Military Strategy. College Station, TX: Texas A&;M University Press, 1998. Pp.229, biblio, index; $39.95. ISBN 0–89096–836–5     

‘All Innovation Leads to Hellfire’: Military Reform and the Ottoman Empire in the Eighteenth Century

The debates on the pace, scope and nature of Ottoman military reform tend to be dominated by domestic and/or cultural explanations. Issues of military competition and efficiency, embodied in Neorealist perspectives, might appear to have little to offer as an explanatory tool in the Ottoman context. This article argues that this view is mistaken. First, despite their value, there remains an indeterminacy about domestic and cultural explanations that limits their usefulness as single-cause explanations. Second, Neorealism does generate valuable insights into the dynamics of military reform in the Ottoman Empire; issues of military competition and efficiency do matter in explaining the nature of Ottoman military reform during this period. Ultimately, domestic, cultural, and Neorealist perspectives are complementary, and mono-causal explanations of eighteenth century developments in the Ottoman military are likely to be too simplistic.     

精密加工过程切削用量和表面粗糙度关系的模糊化处理方法

在金属切削原理中,用切削用量可以估计理论表面粗糙度。由于切削过程的复杂性,实际加工表面粗糙度和理论表面粗糙度有较大差距。本文采用模糊模式识别方法,对切削用量和表面粗糙度的关系进行了实验研究。本人介绍的理论方法、实现技术路线和实验结果,为以后开展ＦＭＳ或ＣＩＭＳ中智能化质量监控技术的进一步研究打下了基础。