Multiple criteria decision making in the USSR: A survey

A brief historical overview of the development of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) in the USSR during the last fifteen years is presented. Soviet MCDM research is reviewed. Several applications of MCDM methodology in the USSR are described. Long-term trends in the research and application of MCDM in the Soviet Union are discussed.     

Continuous sampling plans for markov-dependent production processes

This article discusses the behavior of three continuous sampling plans: continuous sampling plan 1 (CSP 1) and continuous sampling plan 2 (CSP 2) developed by Dodge [5] and Dodge and Torrey [7], and multilevel continuous sampling plan 2 (MLP 2) developed by Lieberman and Solomon [11], when the quality of successive units in a continuous production process follows a two-state time-homogeneous Markov chain. We first derive the average outgoing quality (AOQ) expressions of these plans. Exact procedures for determining the average outgoing quality limit (AOQL) can be obtained only for CSP 1. For CSP 2 and MLP 2 plans, iterative procedures have been used to obtain the AOQL contours. For these plans, it is assumed that the serial correlation coefficient between the two consecutive random variables of the Markov chain is known. In addition, estimation procedures for the coefficient are given. We show that if the serial correlation coefficient of the Markov chain is positive (negative), the AOQL is increased (decreased) as compared to the case when the successive units in the production process follows a Bernoulli pattern. Let r denote the number of production units examined in succession which are found to be of good quality and k denote the inverse of the sampling fraction employed when quality is good. Then if r and k are sufficiently small, it is observed from the graph that, for small departures of the serial correlation coefficient from zero, the AOQL values do not differ significantly for each of the three plans; whereas for sufficiently large values of r and k, the AOQL values differ significantly. Various aspects of these plans, such as their operating characteristics 2 (OC 2) and the serial correlation coefficient, are discussed.     

Optimal strategies for problems of simultaneous attack against an area defense without impact-point prediction

An area to be defended consists of separated point targets. These targets are subject to an attack in which the offensive weapons are assumed to arrive simultaneously. The defense has area defenders, each of which is capable of intercepting any attacker. The defense has no impact-point prediction; that is, it has no knowledge of any attacker's destination prior to allocation of area interceptors. For a given attack, the defense wishes to allocate its interceptors to maximize the total expected survival value of the targets. For a given attack size, the offense seeks a strategy to minimize total expected surviving value against best defense. We determine an optimal defensive strategy directly and develop an algorithm to determine an optimal attack and the optimal value of the min-max problem. A dynamic programming technique is used to obtain integer solutions, and illustrative computational results are provided.     

Linear search with bounded resources

A point is placed at random on the real line according to some known distribution F, and a search is made for this point, beginning at some starting points s on the line, and moving along the line according to some function x(t). The objective of this article is to maximize the probability of finding the point while traveling at most d units. Characterizations of simple optimal searches are found for arbitrary distributions, for continuous distributions with continuous density everywhere (e.g., normal, Cauchy, triangular), and for continuous distributions with density which is continuous on its support (e.g., exponential, uniform). These optimal searches are also shown to be optimal for maximization of the expected number of points found if the points are placed on the line independently from a known distribution F.     

Capacity expansion under a service‐level constraint for uncertain demand with lead times

For a service provider facing stochastic demand growth, expansion lead times and economies of scale complicate the expansion timing and sizing decisions. We formulate a model to minimize the infinite horizon expected discounted expansion cost under a service‐level constraint. The service level is defined as the proportion of demand over an expansion cycle that is satisfied by available capacity. For demand that follows a geometric Brownian motion process, we impose a stationary policy under which expansions are triggered by a fixed ratio of demand to the capacity position, i.e., the capacity that will be available when any current expansion project is completed, and each expansion increases capacity by the same proportion. The risk of capacity shortage during a cycle is estimated analytically using the value of an up‐and‐out partial barrier call option. A cutting plane procedure identifies the optimal values of the two expansion policy parameters simultaneously. Numerical instances illustrate that if demand grows slowly with low volatility and the expansion lead times are short, then it is optimal to delay the start of expansion beyond when demand exceeds the capacity position. Delays in initiating expansions are coupled with larger expansion sizes. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Competitive location and capacity decisions for firms serving time‐sensitive customers

In this article we explore how two competing firms locate and set capacities to serve time‐sensitive customers. Because customers are time‐sensitive, they may decline to place an order from either competitor if their expected waiting time is large. We develop a two‐stage game where firms set capacities and then locations, and show that three types of subgame perfect equilibria are possible: local monopoly (in which each customer is served by a single firm, but some customers may be left unserved), constrained local monopoly (in which firms serve the entire interval of customers but do not compete with each other), and constrained competition (in which firms also serve the entire interval of customers, but now compete for some customers). We perform a comparative statics analysis to illustrate differences in the equilibrium behavior of a duopolist and a coordinated monopolist. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

An optimal critical level policy for inventory systems with two demand classes

Traditional inventory systems treat all demands of a given item equally. This approach is optimal if the penalty costs of all customers are the same, but it is not optimal if the penalty costs are different for different customer classes. Then, demands of customers with high penalty costs must be filled before demands of customers with low penalty costs. A commonly used inventory policy for dealing with demands with different penalty costs is the critical level inventory policy. Under this policy demands with low penalty costs are filled as long as inventory is above a certain critical level. If the inventory reaches the critical level, only demands with high penalty costs are filled and demands with low penalty costs are backordered. In this article, we consider a critical level policy for a periodic review inventory system with two demand classes. Because traditional approaches cannot be used to find the optimal parameters of the policy, we use a multidimensional Markov chain to model the inventory system. We use a sample path approach to prove several properties of this inventory system. Although the cost function is not convex, we can build on these properties to develop an optimization approach that finds the optimal solution. We also present some numerical results. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Algorithm to solve a chance‐constrained network capacity design problem with stochastic demands and finite support

We consider the problem of determining the capacity to assign to each arc in a given network, subject to uncertainty in the supply and/or demand of each node. This design problem underlies many real‐world applications, such as the design of power transmission and telecommunications networks. We first consider the case where a set of supply/demand scenarios are provided, and we must determine the minimum‐cost set of arc capacities such that a feasible flow exists for each scenario. We briefly review existing theoretical approaches to solving this problem and explore implementation strategies to reduce run times. With this as a foundation, our primary focus is on a chance‐constrained version of the problem in which α% of the scenarios must be feasible under the chosen capacity, where α is a user‐defined parameter and the specific scenarios to be satisfied are not predetermined. We describe an algorithm which utilizes a separation routine for identifying violated cut‐sets which can solve the problem to optimality, and we present computational results. We also present a novel greedy algorithm, our primary contribution, which can be used to solve for a high quality heuristic solution. We present computational analysis to evaluate the performance of our proposed approaches. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 236–246, 2016     

Northern Ireland and minimum force: the refutation of a concept?

The debate over whether there exists a British counter-insurgency tradition of minimum force is one that has been thoroughly discussed. Is there anything left to say? This study suggests there is further insight to be attained if one explicitly evaluates the concept of minimum force in relation to the conduct of the security forces in the years of the Northern Ireland conflict. Through an examination of three key periods in the conflict, it will be shown that while there was invariably an awareness of the need to act with restraint among senior officers at the strategic level, this was often difficult to apply at the tactical level in the heat of confrontation. The argument demonstrates that the British Army, and other instruments of the state, rarely acted in a manner that could be described as ‘minimal’. Instead, it was the broader liberal values of the British state that explains largely the degrees of restraint exhibited by the government and security forces.