Slow failure: Understanding America’s quagmire in Afghanistan

ABSTRACT

The United States government has no organised way of thinking about war termination other than seeking decisive military victory. This implicit assumption is inducing three major errors. First, the United States tends to select military-centric strategies that have low probabilities of success. Second, the United States is slow to modify losing or ineffective strategies due to cognitive obstacles, internal frictions, and patron-client challenges with the host nation government. Finally, as the U.S. government tires of the war and elects to withdraw, bargaining asymmetries prevent successful transitions (building the host nation to win on its own) or negotiations.     

Scheduling workers in a constricted area

A generalization of the equi-partitioning problem, termed the 2D-Partition Problem, is formulated. The motivation is an aircraft maintenance scheduling problem with the following characteristics. The complete maintenance overhaul of a single aircraft requires the completion of some 350 tasks. These tasks require a varying number of technicians working at the same time. For large subsets of these 350 tasks, the constraining resource is physical space—tasks must be completed in a physical space of limited size such as the cockpit. Furthermore, there is no precedence relationship among the tasks. For each subset, the problem is to schedule the tasks to minimize makespan. Let m denote the maximum number of technicians that can work at the same time in the physical area under consideration. We present optimization algorithms for m = 2 and 3. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A lost sales (S — 1, S) perishable inventory system with renewal demand

This article analyzes a one-to-one ordering perishable inventory model with renewal demands and exponential lifetimes. The leadtimes are independently and exponentially distributed and the demands that occur during stock out periods are lost. Although the items are assumed to decay at a constant rate, the output process is not renewal and the Markov renewal techniques are successfully employed to obtain the operating characteristics. The problem of minimizing the long run expected cost rate is discussed and numerical values of optimal stock level are also provided. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An evaluation of scheduling heuristics for dynamic single-processor scheduling with early/tardy costs

In an endeavor to broaden the application of scheduling models to decisions involving the use of a manager's time we use simulation to investigate the performance of a number of simple algorithms (including eight priority rules and a construction heuristic) in a dynamic setting with tasks arriving (randomly) and scheduling decisions being made, over time. We compare these simple methods relative to a bound that uses an adjacent pairwise interchange algorithm. We model uncertainty in task durations, and costs being incurred for early and tardy task completion (representative of JIT settings). In addition to evaluating the efficacy of the scheduling rules and various preemption strategies (using ANOVA), we highlight the managerial implications of the effects of eight environmental parameters. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Ordering policies for an inventory system with three supply modes

This article explores ordering policies for inventory systems with three supply modes. This model is particularly interesting because the optimal ordering decision needs to balance the inventory and purchase costs, as well as the costs for earlier and later periods. The latter cost trade-off is present only in inventory systems with three or more supply modes. Therefore, the result not only offers guidelines for the operation of the concerned inventory systems, but also provides valuable insight into the complex cost trade-offs when more supply modes are available. We assume that the difference between the lead times is one period, and the inventory holding and shortage costs are linear. We analyze two cases and obtain the structure of the optimal ordering policy. Moreover, in the first case, explicit formulas are derived to calculate the optimal order-up-to levels. In the second case, although the optimal order-up-to levels are functions of the initial inventory state and are not obtained in closed form, their properties are discussed. We also develop heuristic ordering policies based on the news-vendor model. Our numerical experiments suggest that the heuristic policies perform reasonably well. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The single-machine absolute-deviation early-tardy problem with random completion times

We consider sequencing n jobs on a single machine subject to job completion times arising from either machine breakdowns or other causes. The objective is to minimize an expected weighted combination of due dates, completion times, earliness, and tardiness penalties. The determination of optimal distinct due dates or optimal common due dates for a given schedule is investigated. The scheduling problem for a fixed common due date is considered when random completion times arise from machine breakdowns. The optimality of a V-shaped about (a point) T sequence is established when the number of machine breakdowns follows either a Poisson or a geometric distribution and the duration of a breakdown has an exponential distribution. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An exact algorithm for the maximal covering problem

This article develops a robust, exact algorithm for the maximal covering problem (MCP) using dual-based solution methods and greedy heuristics in branch and bound. Based on tests using randomly generated problems with problem parameters similar to those in the existing literature, the hybrid approach developed in this work appears to be effective over a wide range of MCP model parameters. The method is further validated on problems constructed from three real-world data sets. The extensive computational study compares the new method with other existing exact methods using problems that are as big, or larger than, those used in previous work on MCP. The results show that the proposed method is effective in most instances of MCP. In particular, it is shown that bounding schemes using Lagrangian relaxation are effective on MCP as a method of obtaining both exact and heuristic solutions. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

General solution to many-on-many heterogeneous stochastic combat

Stochastic combat models are more realistic than either deterministic or exponential models. Stochastic combat models have been solved analytically only for small combat sizes. It is very difficult, if not impossible, to extend previous solution techniques to larger-scale combat. This research provides the solution for many-on-many heterogeneous stochastic combat with any break points. Furthermore, every stage in stochastic combat is clearly defined and associated aiming and killing probabilities are calculated. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.