Dying to prove a point: The methodology of Dying to Win

Dying to Win is one of the most important works on suicide terrorism. It purports to unravel the strategic, social, and individual logic that gives suicide terrorism its coercive value. The methodology that Pape uses to support his various assertions is problematic for three reasons. First, he defines his key terms in such a way as to artificially set suicide terrorism apart from other forms of political violence. Second, in a number of cases Pape selects data from single sources to support particular assertions when other sources of data, used together, could provide more rigorous and useful insights into the phenomenon of suicide bombing. Finally, Pape codes his data on suicide attacks according to a loose set of criteria which, if recoded, calls into question some of his broader conclusions about the strategic utility of suicide terrorism campaigns.     

利用主成分分析的通信调制识别通用对抗攻击方法

深度学习容易被对抗样本所攻击。以通信调制识别为例,在待传输的通信信号中加入对抗性扰动,可以有效防止非合作的用户利用深度学习方法识别信号的调制方式,进而提升通信安全。针对现有对抗样本生成技术难以满足自适应和实时性的问题,通过对数据集中抽取的小部分数据产生的对抗扰动进行主成分分析,得到适用于整个数据集的通用对抗扰动。通用对抗扰动的计算可以在离线条件下进行,然后实时添加到待发射的信号中,可以满足通信的实时性要求,实现降低非合作方调制识别准确率的目的。实验结果表明该方法相对基线方法具有更优的欺骗性能。     

Efficient distributions of arms‐control inspection effort

A rule that constrains decision‐makers is enforced by an inspector who is supplied with a fixed level of inspection resources—inspection personnel, equipment, or time. How should the inspector distribute its inspection resources over several independent inspectees? What minimum level of resources is required to deter all violations? Optimal enforcement problems occur in many contexts; the motivating application for this study is the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in support of the Treaty on the Non‐Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Using game‐theoretic models, the resource level adequate for deterrence is characterized in a two‐inspectee problem with inspections that are imperfect in the sense that violations can be missed. Detection functions, or probabilities of detecting a violation, are assumed to be increasing in inspection resources, permitting optimal allocations over inspectees to be described both in general and in special cases. When detection functions are convex, inspection effort should be concentrated on one inspectee chosen at random, but when they are concave it should be spread deterministicly over the inspectees. Our analysis provides guidance for the design of arms‐control verification operations, and implies that a priori constraints on the distribution of inspection effort can result in significant inefficiencies. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Waypoint analysis for command and control

Command and Control (C2) in a military setting can be epitomized in battles‐of‐old when commanders would seek high ground to gain superior spatial‐temporal information; from this vantage point, decisions were made and relayed to units in the field. Although the fundamentals remain, technology has changed the practice of C2; for example, enemy units may be observed remotely, with instruments of varying positional accuracy. A basic problem in C2 is the ability to track an enemy object in the battlespace and to forecast its future position; the (extended) Kalman filter provides a straightforward solution. The problem changes fundamentally if one assumes that the moving object is headed for an (unknown) location, or waypoint. This article is concerned with the new problem of estimation of such a waypoint, for which we use Bayesian statistical prediction. The computational burden is greater than an ad hoc regression‐based estimate, which we also develop, but the Bayesian approach has a big advantage in that it yields both a predictor and a measure of its variability. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

On the median residual lifetime and its aging properties: A characterization theorem and applications

This paper is devoted to study several aspects of the median residual life function (MERLF). In reliability studies, it is well known that, although the MERLF have several advantages over the mean residual life function (MRLF), the MRLF has the good property of uniquely determine a life distribution whereas either the median residual life function (MERLF) or an α‐percentile residual life do not have such good property. We shall give a characterization result where knowledge of both the MERLF and the survival function on an interval does uniquely determine the distribution. Moreover, in order to apply this characterization in practical situations, we propose a method to estimate the necessary information of the survival function. Relationships between analytical properties of the survival function and its associated MERLF are also obtained. Bryson and Siddiqui [J Am Statist Assoc 64 (1969), 1472–1483] proved relationships among seven criteria for aging, out of which two contained the MRLF (decreasing MRLF and net decreasing MRLF). In this paper, we prove that the same pattern of relationships holds if the MRLF is replaced by the MERLF. We also examine the aging criteria corresponding to an increasing MERLF and show that there is no relation between the behavior (increasing or decreasing) of the MERLF and of the MRLF. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

Single machine scheduling with a restricted rate‐modifying activity

In this paper we consider the problem of scheduling a set of jobs on a single machine on which a rate‐modifying activity may be performed. The rate‐modifying activity is an activity that changes the production rate of the machine. So the processing time of a job is a variable, which depends on whether it is scheduled before or after the rate‐modifying activity. We assume that the rate‐modifying activity can take place only at certain predetermined time points, which is a constrained case of a similar problem discussed in the literature. The decisions under consideration are whether and when to schedule the rate‐modifying activity, and how to sequence the jobs in order to minimize some objectives. We study the problems of minimizing makespan and total completion time. We first analyze the computational complexity of both problems for most of the possible versions. The analysis shows that the problems are NP‐hard even for some special cases. Furthermore, for the NP‐hard cases of the makespan problem, we present a pseudo‐polynomial time optimal algorithm and a fully polynomial time approximation scheme. For the total completion time problem, we provide a pseudo‐polynomial time optimal algorithm for the case with agreeable modifying rates. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

Commitment decisions with partial information updating

In this paper, we extend the results of Ferguson M. Naval Research Logistics 8 . on an end‐product manufacturer's choice of when to commit to an order quantity from its parts supplier. During the supplier's lead‐time, information arrives about end‐product demand. This information reduces some of the forecast uncertainty. While the supplier must choose its production quantity of parts based on the original forecast, the manufacturer can wait to place its order from the supplier after observing the information update. We find that a manufacturer is sometimes better off with a contract requiring an early commitment to its order quantity, before the supplier commits resources. On the other hand, the supplier sometimes prefers a delayed commitment. The preferences depend upon the amount of demand uncertainty resolved by the information as well as which member of the supply chain sets the exchange price. We also show conditions where demand information updating is detrimental to both the manufacturer and the supplier. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

A squared-euclidean distance location-allocation problem

This article is concerned with the analysis of a squared-Euclidean distance location-allocation problem with balanced transportation constraints, where the costs are directly proportional to distances and the amount shipped. The problem is shown to be equivalent to maximizing a convex quadratic function subject to transportation constraints. A branch-and-bound algorithm is developed that utilizes a specialized, tight, linear programming representation to compute strong upper bounds via a Lagrangian relaxation scheme. These bounds are shown to substantially dominate several other upper bounds that are derived using standard techniques as problem size increases. The special structure of the transportation constraints is used to derive a partitioning scheme, and this structure is further exploited to devise suitable logical tests that tighten the bounds implied by the branching restrictions on the transportation flows. The transportation structure is also used to generate additional cut-set inequalities based on a cycle prevention method which preserves a forest graph for any partial solution. Results of the computational experiments, and a discussion on possible extensions, are also presented.