Optimal control of continuous-time terminal-value birth-and-death processes and airline overbooking

Consider a continuous-time airline overbooking problem that relates to a single-leg flight and a single service class with a stationary fare. Passengers may cancel their reservations at any time and receive a full refund. Therefore fares can be thought of as being paid at flight time. At that time, the airline bumps passengers in excess of flight capacity and pays a penalty for so doing. The wflight-time revenue, that is, fares received less bumping penalties paid, is quasiconcave in the number of reservations at that time. We model the reservations process as a continuous-time terminal-value birth-and-death process. A more general model than is necessary for an airline reservations system is considered, in which the airline controls both the reservation acceptance (birth) and the cancellation (death) rates. In current practice airlines do not control cancellation rates (though other industries do exercise such control, e.g., hotels) and control reservation acceptance rates by declining reservation requests. The more general model might be applied to other targeting applications, such as steering a vehicle through space toward a target location. For the general model a piecewise-constant booking-limit policy is optimal; that is, at all times the airline accepts reservation requests up to a booking limit if the current number of reservations is less than that booking limit, and declines reservation requests otherwise. When the airline is allowed to decline all reservation requests, as is the case in practice, the booking-limit optimal policy defined by using the greatest optimal booking limit at all times is piecewise constant. Moreover, these booking limits fall toward flight time. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An extreme-point approach for obtaining weighted ratings in qualitative multicriteria decision making

Many attempts have been made in the past to obtain estimates for the weights and ratings values of a multicriteria linear utility function. In particular, the problem arises when both criteria importance and alternatives' ratings are expressed in a qualitative ordinal manner. This article proposes an extreme-point approach for obtaining the overall ratings in the presence of ordinal preferences both for the criteria importance and the alternatives' rankings. In particular it is shown that Borda's method of scores is obtained as a special case. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A suboptimality bound for permutation policies in single machine stochastic scheduling

A general class of single machine stochastic scheduling problems incorporating precedence constraints is modelled as a family of competing Markov decision processes. A bound on the optimal return yields a suboptimality bound for permutation policies. This in turn leads to a generalised “used better than new” principle as a (highly intuitive) sufficient condition for the optimality of a permutation policy in the class of all (preemptive) policies. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Scheduling to minimize release-time resource consumption and tardiness penalties

We consider the problem of scheduling a set of jobs with a common due-date on a single-machine where the release time of a job is related to the amount of resource consumed. The objective is to minimize the total resource consumption and the total tardiness. While the problem is strongly NP-hard in general, we discuss two different special cases for which special properties are identified and used to develop efficient pseudo-polynomial time algorithms. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An exact branch‐and‐price algorithm for multitasking scheduling on unrelated parallel machines

We consider the multitasking scheduling problem on unrelated parallel machines to minimize the total weighted completion time. In this problem, each machine processes a set of jobs, while the processing of a selected job on a machine may be interrupted by other available jobs scheduled on the same machine but unfinished. To solve this problem, we propose an exact branch‐and‐price algorithm, where the master problem at each search node is solved by a novel column generation scheme, called in‐out column generation, to maintain the stability of the dual variables. We use a greedy heuristic to obtain a set of initial columns to start the in‐out column generation, and a hybrid strategy combining a genetic algorithm and an exact dynamic programming algorithm to solve the pricing subproblems approximately and exactly, respectively. Using randomly generated data, we conduct numerical studies to evaluate the performance of the proposed solution approach. We also examine the effects of multitasking on the scheduling outcomes, with which the decision maker can justify making investments to adopt or avoid multitasking.     

Aircraft sortie effectiveness model

A mathematical model describing the sortie of a single aircraft under enemy threats, attacking a single passive target, is developed. Emphasis is placed on the determination of the probabilities associated with the various events in the sortie. These probabilities are then used to derive appropriate measures of effectiveness. The optimum sortie time is analyzed.     

Stochastic production capacity: A bane or a boon for quick response supply chains?

The quick response (QR) system that can cope with demand volatility by shortening lead time has been well studied in the literature. Much of the existing literature assumes implicitly or explicitly that the manufacturers under QR can always meet the demand because the production capacity is always sufficient. However, when the order comes with a short lead time under QR, availability of the manufacturer's production capacity is not guaranteed. This motivates us to explore QR in supply chains with stochastic production capacity. Specifically, we study QR in a two-echelon supply chain with Bayesian demand information updating. We consider the situation where the manufacturer's production capacity under QR is uncertain. We first explore how stochastic production capacity affects supply chain decisions and QR implementation. We then incorporate the manufacturer's ability to expand capacity into the model. We explore how the manufacturer determines the optimal capacity expansion decision, and the value of such an ability to the supply chain and its agents. Finally, we extend the model to the two-stage two-ordering case and derive the optimal ordering policy by dynamic programming. We compare the single-ordering and two-ordering cases to generate additional managerial insights about how ordering flexibility affects QR when production capacity is stochastic. We also explore the transparent supply chain and find that our main results still hold.     

Saddam versus the inspectors: the impact of regime security on the verification of Iraq’s WMD disarmament

The discovery that Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in 2003 raised the question of why Saddam had prevented UN weapons inspectors from fully accounting for his disarmament. The leading explanation for Saddam’s behavior is that he valued ambiguity as part of a strategy of ‘deterrence by doubt’. This article argues that Iraq’s obstruction of inspectors in the late 1990s was motivated by his desire to shield Iraq’s regime security apparatus from UNSCOM’s intrusive counter-concealment inspections. The failure to understand how strongly Saddam’s concerns about his personal safety drove Iraq’s contentious relationship with UNSCOM set the stage for the invasion of Iraq in 2003.     

What explains the failure of U.S. army reconstruction in Afghanistan?

ABSTRACT

This author wrote his doctorate thesis on post-conflict army reconstruction, submitting it in 2011. Continued research on the subject in the intervening seven years indicates that his theoretical propositions can be refined and improved. This article examines refinements to the model, and then applies those refinements in detail to the Afghan case. In so doing, it shifts the focus from potentially altruistic state-building to a case that was driven by pure national-strategic interests. Issues surrounding the liberal peace ideology dominate recent army reconstruction in conflict-affected states. The liberal peace underpinning is of supreme importance, so much so that in many discussions, it is internalised and accepted virtually without thought. This paper will advance the body of knowledge by establishing, for the first time, a theoretical basis for the widespread failure of army reconstruction in Afghanistan. The empirical basis builds on extensive previous research by other scholars. The resulting model can also be applied to better explain outcomes in other similar cases.     

From the sea to outer space: The command of space as the foundation of spacepower theory

Colin Gray once lamented the absence of a ‘Mahan for the final frontier’ and spacepower theory in strategic studies. This article proposes the command of space as the fundamental concept of spacepower theory, and that Mahan himself has much to offer in the endeavour of spacepower theory-making than has hitherto been realised. The theory is advanced by tempering versions of the ‘command of space’, stressing its educational intent, and explaining the nuanced sub-concepts of space control and denial through understanding some precedents set by seapower theory. In the process, aspects of Mahanian and Corbettian seapower theory are unified.