Bayes adaptive control of two-echelon inventory systems i: development for a special case of one-station lower echelon and monte carlo evaluation

Bayes adaptive control policies are developed in the present paper for the special case of a one-station lower echelon: a Poisson distribution of demand, whose mean is assumed to have a prior gamma distribution. The cost structure is of a common type. The ordering policy for the upper echelon, which minimizes expected cost, is replaced by a new type of policy, called Bayes prediction policy. This policy does not require tedious computations, of the sort required by dynamic programming solutions. The characteristics of the policies are studied by Monte Carlo simulation, and supplemented by further theoretical development.     

A sequential bayes procedure for reliability demonstration

A common problem in life testing is to demonstrate that the mean time to failure, θ, exceeds some minimum acceptable value, say θ₁, with a given confidence coefficient γ. When this is true, it is said that “θ₁ has been demonstrated with a confidence γ”. In this paper a Sequential Bayes Procedure (SBP) for demonstrating (by means of. a probability statement) that θ exceeds θ₁ is presented. The SBP differs from the classical procedure in the sense that a prior distribution is assumed on the parameter θ, calling for a Bayesian approach. The procedure is based on the sequence of statistics.     

Interception in a network

This paper presents an algorithm for determining where to place intercepting units in order to maximize the probability of preventing an opposing force from proceeding from one particular node in an undirected network to another. The usual gaming assumptions are invoked; namely, the strategy for placing the units is known to the opponent and he will choose a path through the network which, based on this knowledge, maximizes his probability of successful traverse. As given quantities, the model requires a list of the arcs and nodes of the network, the number of intercepting units available to stop the opposing force, and the probabilities for stopping the opposition at the arcs and nodes as functions of the number of intercepting units placed there. From these quantities, the algorithm calculates the probabilities for placing the unit at the arcs and nodes when one intercepting unit is available, and the expected numbers of units to place at the arcs and nodes when multiple intercepting units are available.     

Values for optimum reject allowances

Industrial situations exist where it is necessary to estimate the optimum number of parts to start through a manufacturing process in order to obtain a given number of completed good items. The solution to this problem is not straightforward when the expected number of rejects from the process is a random variable and when there are alternative penalties associated with producing too many or too few items. This paper discusses various aspects of this problem as well as some of the proposed solutions to it. In addition, tables of optimum reject allowances based on a comprehensive model are presented.     

测量聚合物在高应变率下力学性质的实验系统

本文介绍了一种用于测量材料在高应变率下单轴应力─应变性能的实验测量系统：落重与高速摄影实验系统。该系统在现有的落重装置的基础上,增加了高速摄影和应力过程的同时测量,使得在一次实验中可同时取到应力应变数据。从而避免了这类实验中常用的变形过程中体积不变的假设。通过高速实验提供的实验照片,我们还可以观察到聚合物在高应变率下从变形到断裂的发展过程。     

C~3CM系统构成原理研究

从Ｃ￣３ＣＭ系统分布式体系结构的需要出发,提出了总线型分布式Ｃ￣３ＣＭ系统的构成原理方案,在探讨Ｃ￣３ＣＭ系统的拓扑结构时,着重研究了ＮＯＶＥＬＬ网络的功能,亦提出了实现全分布式体系结构的主要技术支撑。     

基于知识的模型库管理系统

模型库管理系统是决策支持系统区别于其它计算杌信息系统的一个重要特征,着重介绍了如何将知识的表达技术(网络图)和推理机制(深度优先搜索)应用于模型库管理系统,从而实现模型的自动集成和选择,并给出了具体实现过程。