Estimating reliability growth (or deterioration) using time series analysis

In this paper we propose a method for estimating reliability growth (or deterioration) using time series analysis. Our method does not call for the specification of a particular model, and estimates the growth in the presence of periodicity. We illustrate our procedure by considering some binomial failure data generated during the testing of a large system of the U.S. Navy.     

An algorithm for a class of loading problems

The loading problem we consinder is to assign a set of discrete objects, each having a weight, to a set of boxes, each of which has a capacity limit, in such a way that every object is assigned to a box and the number of boxes used is minimized. A characterization of the assignments is offered and used to develop a set of rules for generating nonredundant assignments. The rules are incorporated into an implicit enumeration algorithm. The algorithm is tested against a very good heuristic. Computational experience shows that the algorithm is highly efficient, solving problems of up to 3600 0-1 variables in a CPU second.     

An algorithm for 0-1 multiple-knapsack problems

The 0-1 multiple-knapsack problem is an extension of the well-known 0-1 knapsack problem. It is a problem of assigning m objects, each having a value and a weight, to n knapsacks in such a way that the total weight in each knapsack is less than its capacity limit and the total value in the knapsacks is maximized. A branch-and-bound algorithm for solving the problem is developed and tested. Branching rules that avoid the search of redundant partial solutions are used in the algorithm. Various bounding techniques, including Lagrangean and surrogate relaxations, are investigated and compared.     

Markov chain with taboo states and reliability

A computationally feasible matrix method is presented to find the first-passage probabilities in a Markov chain where a set of states is taboo during transit. This concept has been used to evaluate the reliability of a system whose changes in strength can be thought of as a Markov chain, while the environment in which it is functioning generates stresses which can also be envisaged as another Markov chain.     

Cost analysis of warranty policies

This article analyzes two general warranty policies involving an initial free replacement period, followed by a pro rata period. We examine the short-run total costs and longrun average costs under these policies. Formulas for both consumer costs and manufacturer profits under warranty are derived. We also study the expected number of purchases over the product life cycle under both policies. Bounds for the expected total costs and expected number of purchases are obtained for the case where the failure distribution of the item is new better than used.     

Minimizing costs of sequential and parallel personnel testing programs

We consider groups of tests for personnel selection purposes in which each test has a known a priori probability of being failed, such failure resulting in outright rejection and termination of testing. Each test has a fixed cost and given duration. We consider the minimization of the total expected cost due to both the fixed costs and the delay costs when the tests may be conducted sequentially or in parallel. In the latter situation, a heuristic algorithm is proposed and illustrated.     

Flowshop/no-idle or no-wait scheduling to minimize the sum of completion times

This paper deals with flowshop/sum of completion times scheduling problems, working under a “no-idle” or a “no-wait” constraint, the former prescribes for the machines to work continuously without idle intervals and the latter for the jobs to be processed continuously without waiting times between consecutive machines. Under either of the constraints the problem is unary NP-Complete for two machines. We prove some properties of the optimal schedule for n/2/F, no-idle/σC_i. For n/m/P, no-idle/σC_i, and n/m/P, no-wait/σC_i, with an increasing or decreasing series of dominating machines, we prove theorems that are the basis for polynomial bounded algorithms. All theorems are demonstrated numerically.     

A finite capacity GI/PH/1 queue with group services

We consider a finite-capacity single-server queue in which arrivals occur one at a time, according to a renewal process. The successive service times are mutually independent and have a common phase-type distribution. The customers are served in groups of size at least L, a preassigned threshold value. Explicit analytic expressions for the steady-state queue-length densities at arrivals and at arbitrary time points, and the throughput of the system are obtained. The Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the stationary waiting-time distribution of an admitted customer at points of arrivals is computed. It is shown to be of phase type when the arrival process is also of phase type. Efficient algorithmic procedures for the steady-state analysis of the model are presented. These procedures are used in arriving at an optimal value for L that minimizes the mean waiting time of an admitted customer. A conjecture on the nature of the mean waiting time is proposed.     

A multiserver queue with markovian arrivals and group services with thresholds

We consider a multiserver queueing system in which arrivals are governed by a Markovian arrival process. The system is attended by K identical exponential servers. Under a dynamic probabilistic service rule which depends on two threshold parameters, this model is studied as a Markov process. The steady-state probability vector is shown to be of (modified) matrix-geometric type. Efficient algorithmic procedures for the computation of the steady-state probability vector and some key performance measures of the system are developed. Some numerical examples are discussed. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.