Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model

We undertake inference for a stochastic form of the Lanchester combat model. In particular, given battle data, we assess the type of battle that occurred and whether or not it makes any difference to the number of casualties if an army is attacking or defending. Our approach is Bayesian and we use modern computational techniques to fit the model. We illustrate our method using data from the Ardennes campaign. We compare our results with previous analyses of these data by Bracken and Fricker. Our conclusions are somewhat different to those of Bracken. Where he suggests that a linear law is appropriate, we show that the logarithmic or linear‐logarithmic laws fit better. We note however that the basic Lanchester modeling assumptions do not hold for the Ardennes data. Using Fricker's modified data, we show that although his “super‐logarithmic” law fits best, the linear, linear‐logarithmic, and logarithmic laws cannot be ruled out. We suggest that Bayesian methods can be used to make inference for battles in progress. We point out a number of advantages: Prior information from experts or previous battles can be incorporated; predictions of future casualties are easily made; more complex models can be analysed using stochastic simulation techniques. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 541–558, 2000     

Note on “An Optimal Recursive Method for Various Inventory Replenishment Models with Increasing Demand and Shortages” by Teng et al.

In a recent paper, Teng, Chern, and Yang consider four possible inventory replenishment models and determine the optimal replenishment policies for them. They compare these models to identify the best alternative on the basis of minimum total relevant inventory costs. The total cost functions for Model 1 and Model 4 as derived by them are not exact for the comparison. As a result, their conclusion on the least expensive replenishment policy is incorrect. The present article provides the actual total costs for Model 1 and Model 4 to make a correct comparison of the four models. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 602–606, 2000     

美国海军“大白色舰队”的环球航行

1907年11月16日,是美国海军史上具有重要意义的一天.这天,美国海军最先进的16艘战列舰全部漆成华丽的银白色,整齐地排列在切萨皮克军港,正准备开始美国历史上首次大编队环球航行.     

Minimizing weighted mean absolute deviation of flow times in single machine systems

We discuss the problem of scheduling several jobs on a single machine with the objective of minimizing the weighted mean absolute deviation of flow times around the weighted mean flow time. We first show that the optimal schedule is W-shaped. For the unweighted case, we show that all optimal schedules are V-shaped. This characterization enables us to show that the problem is NP-hard. We then provide a pseudopolynomial algorithm for the unweighted problem. Finally, we consider three heuristic algorithms for the unweighted problem and report computational experience with these algorithms. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 297–311, 1998     

Analysis of the greedy approach in problems of maximum k-coverage

In this paper, we consider a general covering problem in which k subsets are to be selected such that their union covers as large a weight of objects from a universal set of elements as possible. Each subset selected must satisfy some structural constraints. We analyze the quality of a k-stage covering algorithm that relies, at each stage, on greedily selecting a subset that gives maximum improvement in terms of overall coverage. We show that such greedily constructed solutions are guaranteed to be within a factor of 1 − 1/e of the optimal solution. In some cases, selecting a best solution at each stage may itself be difficult; we show that if a β-approximate best solution is chosen at each stage, then the overall solution constructed is guaranteed to be within a factor of 1 − 1/e^β of the optimal. Our results also yield a simple proof that the number of subsets used by the greedy approach to achieve entire coverage of the universal set is within a logarithmic factor of the optimal number of subsets. Examples of problems that fall into the family of general covering problems considered, and for which the algorithmic results apply, are discussed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 615–627, 1998     

Automated air load planning

We describe the development of a heuristic algorithm for determining efficient 2-dimensional packings in cargo aircraft where cargo placement constraints are critically important in determining the feasibility of packing locations. We review the performance of a new algorithm versus some traditional ones for aircraft loading. The algorithm is also tested in a more generalized setting where there exist no additional constraints on items, to suggest applicability in other environments. The new algorithm has been used worldwide in the Automated Air Load Planning System (AALPS) for cargo aircraft loading, with much success. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 751–768, 1998     

Discretization of the continuous ambush game

This article further considers the two‐person continuous ambush game introduced by Ruckle. This article extends the work of Ruckle, Baston and Bostock, and Lee by considering the game for a general number of barriers. By supplanting optimal strategies from a discretized version of the game, we show that there always exists a value for the game, which, furthermore, can be found using linear programming techniques. Further to this, we show that the discrete ambush game considered by Garnaev has the same value as a continuous game, allowing many new results to be obtained in both games. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 515–529, 2003