CIVIL CONTROL OF THE ZAMBIAN MILITARY SINCE INDEPENDENCE

Democratic rule requires, amongst other things, orderly civil-military relations. Zambia's military, with some exceptions, have generally remained under firm civilian control, unlike many forces in the region. Initially the military was based on the British colonial model but during the struggle for independence the force was indigenised. Instead of representing a colonial power, the military came to represent a specific political viewpoint: one party participatory democracy. President Kaunda, the leader of UNIP, was chiefly responsible for the politicisation of the military and ensuring its loyalty to the ruling party. Quasi-military institutions such as the Combined Cadet Force and the Home Guard Unit were useful links between civilian and military personnel. When Frederick Chiluba, leader of the MMD, took over in 1991 he tried to make the military more professional and curb its power over civilian affairs. A defence council and parliamentary regulation were instituted to avoid further military coups.     

Dual sourcing: Responsive hedging against correlated supply and demand uncertainty

This article analyzes dual sourcing decisions under stochastically dependent supply and demand uncertainty. A manufacturer faces the trade‐off between investing in unreliable but high‐margin offshore supply and in reliable but low‐margin local supply, where the latter allows for production that is responsively contingent on the actual demand and offshore supply conditions. Cost thresholds for both types of supply determine the optimal resource allocation: single offshore sourcing, single responsive sourcing, or dual sourcing. Relying on the concept of concordance orders, we study the effects of correlation between supply and demand uncertainty. Adding offshore supply to the sourcing portfolio becomes more favorable under positive correlation, since offshore supply is likely to satisfy demand when needed. Selecting responsive capacity under correlated supply and demand uncertainty is not as straightforward, yet we establish the managerially relevant conditions under which responsive capacity either gains or loses in importance. Our key results are extended to the broad class of endogenous supply uncertainty developed by Dada et al. [Manufact Serv Operat Mange 9 (2007), 9–32].© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

A model for step‐stress accelerated life testing

Modern technology is producing high reliability products. Life testing for such products under normal use condition takes a lot of time to obtain a reasonable number of failures. In this situation a step‐stress procedure is preferred for accelerated life testing. In this paper we assume a Weibull and Lognormal model whose scale parameter depends upon the present level as well as the age at the entry in the present stress level. On the basis of that we propose a parametric model to the life distribution for step‐stress testing and suggest a suitable design to estimate the parameters involved in the model. A simulation study has been done by the proposed model based on maximum likelihood estimation. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

Applying Order-of-Battle to Al Qaeda Operations

Since the global war on terror began, the pursuit of Al Qaeda is widely considered as warfare and not the pursuit of criminals. In light of counter-terrorism being redefined as war, the criteria applied for tracking militaries of conventional enemies may also be applicable to Al Qaeda. Intelligence analysts have long used the nine order-of-battle (OB) criteria as part of the estimative process for conventional, or nation-state, enemies. Applying OB criteria to Al Qaeda may assist intelligence analysts in knowing the enemy and identifying changes that will allow for predictive analysis. Many elements of Al Qaeda's OB prior to the events of 11 September were viewed as clutter and not significant changes that might have otherwise alerted intelligence analysts to the impending attack. This essay suggests how one might go about applying the nine OB criteria to analysis of Al Qaeda. Although more difficult and requiring modification, using an analytical procedure that has been tested successfully over many years is a logical step in the war on Al Qaeda. If all OB changes are tracked and analyzed using a systematic approach as outlined in this essay, Al Qaeda attacks may be predicted and/or curtailed in the future.     

One size does not fit all: personalized incentives in military compensation

A critical element in implementing a compensation scheme including nonmonetary incentives (NMIs) is recognizing that preferences vary widely across Service members. There are at least three sources of variability: across different population classes, across individuals within a population class, and across NMI packages for a particular individual. Surveys across different military communities, ranks, and years of Service show the difficulty of identifying any NMI that has significant value for even 50% of the active duty force. At the same time, approximately 80% of the surveyed Service members expressed a significant positive value for at least one NMI. Therefore, one-size-fits-all incentive packages will not be nearly as effective as more personalized incentive packages. The authors discuss variability in Service member NMI preferences and outline an approach to implementing personalized NMI packages in military compensation through a sealed-bid reverse auction, where Service members select individual NMIs from a “cafeteria-style” menu of options.     

A branch and bound algorithm for the minimum storage‐time sequencing problem

The minimum storage‐time sequencing problem generalizes many well‐known problems in combinatorial optimization, such as the directed linear arrangement and the problem of minimizing the weighted sum of completion times, subject to precedence constraints on a single processor. In this paper we propose a new lower bound, based on a Lagrangian relaxation, which can be computed very efficiently. To improve upon this lower bound, we employ a bundle optimization algorithm. We also show that the best bound obtainable by this approach equals the one obtainable from the linear relaxation computed on a formulation whose first Chvàtal closure equals the convex hull of all the integer solutions of the problem. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 313–331, 2001     

On estimating survival for reliability models based on age-related stochastic comparisons

A new class of nonparametric reliability models is introduced and studied. A distribution is said to be better at age s than at age t (sBt) if the residual lifetime at age s is stochastically greater than or equal to the residual lifetime at age t. Applications to various forms of replacement policies, including the cannibalization of failed systems, are noted. For fixed s < t, the problem of estimating a survival curve assumed to belong to the sBt class is addressed using recursive methods. An sBt estimator is derived in closed form, and its uniform strong consistency at an optimal rate of convergence is demonstrated. A simulation study strongly supports the claim that the sBt estimator tends to outperform the empirical survivor function in small- and moderate-size samples. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Coalitions & the Legitimisation of UK Security Policy

Abstract

David Moore analyses the role of the Treasury in detemining and controlling defence policy and expenditure, and the place of the MoD within this function.