Impact of reseller's and sales agent's forecasting accuracy in a multilayer supply chain

We consider a three‐layer supply chain with a manufacturer, a reseller, and a sales agent. The demand is stochastically determined by the random market condition and the sales agent's private effort level. Although the manufacturer is uninformed about the market condition, the reseller and the sales agent conduct demand forecasting and generate private demand signals. Under this framework with two levels of adverse selection intertwined with moral hazard, we study the impact of the reseller's and the sales agent's forecasting accuracy on the profitability of each member. We show that the manufacturer's profitability is convex on the reseller's forecasting accuracy. From the manufacturer's perspective, typically improving the reseller's accuracy is detrimental when the accuracy is low but is beneficial when it is high. We identify the concrete interrelation among the manufacturer‐optimal reseller's accuracy, the volatility of the market condition, and the sales agent's accuracy. Finally, the manufacturer's interest may be aligned with the reseller's when only the reseller can choose her accuracy; this alignment is never possible when both downstream players have the discretion to choose their accuracy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 207–222, 2014     

碳纤维强度的统计特性及对复合材料线芯力学性能的影响

测试了国产T300级碳纤维的单丝和复丝拉伸强度,并用Weibull分布来描述碳纤维单丝平均拉伸强度。采用拉挤工艺制备出国产碳纤维复合线芯,测试了国产碳纤维复合线芯的弯曲强度和短梁剪切强度性能。结果表明:国产T300级碳纤维单丝拉伸强度性能达到东丽T300碳纤维水平,且分散性更小;复丝强度略低。国产T300级碳纤维集束性较差,在拉挤抽纱过程中,容易夹纱和起毛。在纤维体积含量基本相同情况下,国产T300级碳纤维复合线芯力学性能与东丽T700碳纤维复合线芯力学性能相差不大。     

Return policy: Hassle‐free or your money‐back guarantee?

This article compares the profitability of two pervasively adopted return policies—money‐back guarantee and hassle‐free policies. In our model, a seller sells to consumers with heterogeneous valuations and hassle costs. Products are subject to quality risk, and product misfit can only be observed post‐purchase. While the hassle‐free policy is cost advantageous from the seller's viewpoint, a money‐back guarantee allows the seller to fine‐tune the consumer hassle on returning the product. Thus, when the two return policies lead to the same consumer behaviors, the hassle‐free policy dominates. Conversely, a money‐back guarantee can be more profitable even if on average, high‐valuation consumers experience a lower hassle cost than the low‐valuation ones. The optimal hassle cost can be higher when product quality gets improved; thus, it is not necessarily a perfect proxy or signal of the seller's quality. We further allow the seller to adopt a mixture of these policies, and identify the concrete operating regimes within which these return policies are optimal among more flexible policies. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 403–417, 2014     

Strategic outsourcing under technology spillovers

We study a supply chain in which an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and a contract manufacturer (CM) compete in the finished goods market. The OEM can decide whether to outsource the intermediate good, a critical component for producing the finished good, from the CM or make in‐house production. Technology transition improves the CM's production efficiency, and it can take two different forms: a direct technology transfer from the OEM to the CM or technology spillovers through outsourcing from the OEM to the CM. We document the possibility of strategic outsourcing, that is, the CM supplies the intermediate good to the OEM when she is less efficient than the OEM's in‐house production. We find that technology spillovers can strengthen the incentive for strategic outsourcing. Furthermore, compared with direct technology transfers, outsourcing coupled with technology spillovers may generate more technology transition. Outsourcing is a particularly appropriate channel for implicit collusion when the OEM is not very efficient with the production of the intermediate good. Our results suggest that ex post competition on the finished goods can create room for ex ante collaboration and provide some implications on the OEM's outsourcing strategies when facing a competitive CM.© 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 501–514, 2014     

应用改进遗传算法优化天基光学监视平台轨道

针对地球遮挡、地影、太阳光干扰、月光干扰、空间目标相对观测平台的角速度等约束对空间目标可见性的影响问题,基于已编目空间目标双行轨道根数,研究以太阳同步晨昏圆轨道作为观测平台轨道,采用改进多变异位自适应遗传算法对单星观测平台轨道倾角进行优化设计。仿真结果表明,改进的多变异位自适应遗传算法有效地解决了多变异位自适应遗传算法不能保证收敛到所有种群中最优个体的问题,且随机抽取10%左右的目标样本可以达到与采用所有目标相当的性能,计算效率提高约1个量级。     

具有时滞的Cohen—Grossberg神经网络的Hopf分支全局存在性研究

摘要：利用泛函微分方程的度理论,研究一类具有时滞的Cohen-Grossberg神经网络的全局分支的存在性,研究结果为该类神经网络的应用设计提供理论基础．     

糕点状纳米金/聚3-甲苯噻吩复合物的制备及电催化性能

为了提高非酶传感器对葡萄糖的催化性能,制备了糕点状纳米金/聚3甲基噻吩复合物并用于电极的表面修饰。反应物浓度一定,纳米金经聚3甲苯噻吩诱导,自组装成为糕点状纳米金/聚3甲苯噻吩复合物。将纳米复合物滴涂在玻碳电极表面,制得纳米金/聚3甲苯噻吩复合物修饰电极。用循环伏安法研究修饰电极对葡萄糖的电催化作用。结果表明:在0.1 mol/L NaOH溶液中,葡萄糖在修饰电极上出现明显的氧化信号,修饰电极表现出良好的电催化性能。采用方波伏安法测定葡萄糖,峰电流与葡萄糖溶液的浓度在[0.50,4.32]mmol/L呈线性关系。     

现代花园洋房设计方法

花园洋房是具有悠久历史的住宅产品,现代花园洋房日益受到喜爱。为适应现代居住舒适、经济、安全的要求,寻求更加适合现代社会居住的花园洋房设计方法,基于花园洋房发展趋势与设计思想分析,结合具体设计方案,着重探讨套型叠加、空间过渡、下沉空间和洋房电梯等设计方法,从而为现代花园洋房设计方法的优化提供借鉴。     

面向故障仿真的环节及传递关系建模方法

针对半实物仿真方式在复杂装备维修训练中的需求,提出了一种基于系统功能属性的环节及传递关系建模方法,模型的应用对象主要面向半实物仿真建模.从系统功能到端口特性映射的角度出发,分析了模型的建模思路、基本模型及故障模型的构建方法,以实装部件半实物仿真建模为例,建立了相应的环节及传递关系模型与故障模型,实现了故障的注入及半实物仿真.该建模方法的提出为复杂系统半实物故障仿真提供了一种新的途径.     

基于HNC的命题逻辑推理方法

针对面向自然语言推理中计算机难以准确提取命题并进行符号化的难题,运用HNC(Hieratical Network of Concepts)理论中的语言逻辑概念与句类分析技术,从概念的角度出发,对自然语言描述的推理问题进行理解处理,使计算机能自动提取出推理条件中蕴涵的命题,然后将命题进行公式化处理,最后得到用自然语言描述的结论命题.试验结果表明:该方法能准确理解自然语言中的语义逻辑关系,完成命题逻辑推理.