The Fallujah awakening: a case study in counter-insurgency

The successful pacification of Fallujah in 2007 during the Anbar Awakening movement was due to the coordinated efforts of US and Iraqi forces to physically and psychologically separate the people from the insurgency. Efforts along security, political, and development lines along with a robust tribal effort eliminated the armed insurgency and set the basis for victory in the area. But a synchronized delivery of these resources was insufficient to defeat the insurgency by itself absent the population's decision to turn against the insurgents. This process began to occur in 2006 and was successfully capitalized upon by Coalition Forces in Fallujah in 2007.     

A comparison of waiting time approximations in series queueing systems

The determination of steady-state characteristics in systems of tandem queues has been left to computer simulation because of the lack of exact solutions in all but the simplest newtorks. In this paper, several methods developed for approximating the average waiting time in single-server queues are extended to systems of queues in series. Three methods, due to Fraker, Page, and Marchal, are compared along with results gathered through GPSS simulation. Various queueing networks with Erlangian service distributions are investigated.     

A finite descent theory for linear programming,piecewise linear convex minimization,and the linear complementarity problem

A descent algorithm simultaneously capable of solving linear programming, piecewise linear convex minimization, and the linear complementarity problem is developed. Conditions are given under which a solution can be found in a finite number of iterations using the geometry of the problem. A computer algorithm is developed and test problems are solved by both this method and Lemke's algorithm. Current results indicate a decrease in the number of cells visited but an increase in the total number of pivots needed to solve the problem.     

Remaking alliances for the war on terrorism

This essay contends that allies are vital for counterterrorism, but what we ask of them and their institutional form is quite different from what was asked of traditional alliance partners during the Cold War and its immediate aftermath. Despite these differences, some of the alliance dilemmas that plagued the United States in the past are likely to remain, though they will have different manifestations relevant to the war on terrorism. This essay concludes by arguing that, for purposes of the war on terrorism, the list of key allies has shifted and offers recommendations for improving US alliances.     

Decision costs in the intelligence cycle

John Terraine, The Smoke and the Fire: Myths and Anti‐Myths of War 1861–1945. London: Sidgwick &; Jackson, 1980. Pp. 240; £8.95.

Stephen Roskill, Admiral of the Fleet: Earl Beatty. London: Collins,1980. Pp. 430; £12.95.

Peter and Leni Gillman, ’Collar the Lot’. How Britain Interned and Expelled its Wartime Refugees. London: Quartet Books, 1980. Pp. 314; £8.95.

Frederic A. Bergerson, The Army Gels An Air Force: Tactics of Insurgent Bureaucratic Politics. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980. Pp. xiii + 216; £8.50.

Christoph Bertram (ed), Prospects of Soviet Power in the 1980s. London: Macmillan, and IISS, 1980. Pp. 126; £15.

James M. Roherty (ed.), Defense Policy Formulation: Towards Comparative Analysis. Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 1980. Pp. 315; $14.95.

Franklyn Griffiths and John C. Dolanyi, The Dangers of Nuclear War. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1979. $15.00.

Kenneth Mackenzie, Turkey under the Generals. London: Institute for the Study of Conflict, Conflict Studies. Number 126, January 1981. Pp. 31.     

Reviews

A. Hamish Ion and E.J. Errington (eds.), Great Powers and Little Wars: the Limits of Power. Westport, CT: Praeger, 1993. Pp.246, select biblio, index. $49.95. ISBN 0275–93965–0

John M. Rothgeb, Jr., Defining Power: Influence and Force in the Contemporary International System. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993. Pp.205. $39.95 (hbk); $18.70 (pbk). ISBN 0312–086–822 and 061–056

Brian L. Job (ed.), The Insecurity Dilemma: National Security in Third World States. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1992, Pp.257. $37. ISBN 1–55587–267–0

Edwin G. Corr and Stephen Sloan (eds.), Low‐Intensity Conflict: Old Threats in a New World. Westview Studies in Regional Security, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1992. Pp.310, maps, figures, index. $55 (hbk); $18.85 (pbk). ISBN 0–8133–8593–8 and 8594–6     

The myth of Afghan electoral democracy: the irregularities of the 2014 presidential election

ABSTRACT

This article systematically assesses the 2014 Afghanistan Presidential Election, the first transfer of power from President Hamid Karzai to an elected successor, using provincial voting data as well as explicit data from polling centers. The analysis finds unusual voting results in the April election, where no candidate received 50%+1 votes required by the Afghan constitution, versus the voting results realized for the June ‘runoff election.’ As in other Afghan voting analyses, this article finds voting based on ethno-linguistic preferences, and interestingly found Dr. Ashraf Ghani receiving almost all the swing votes in the runoff election even though the other leading candidate from the April election all endorsed Dr. Abdullah Abdullah. More importantly, however, the research presented here clearly finds extremely strange voting patterns. For example, the polling data center analysis finds 606 polling places where Ghani received all 600 votes and Abdullah received none and another 900 polling centers that gave virtually all its votes to Ghani. These results in combination with other analyses raise the very real possibility that the election results were illegitimate. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of the research to future Afghan elections and their processes as well as to the long-standing conflict in the country.