Expected waiting time rankings in extended machine-repair models

The present paper studies the relative magnitudes of expected waiting times in extended machine-repair models, when processing times are of two Erlang types. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 864–870, 1999     

An exact algorithm for the batch sequencing problem in a two-machine flow shop with limited buffer

This paper deals with the problem of makespan minimization in a flow shop with two machines when the input buffer of the second machine can only host a limited number of parts. Here we analyze the problem in the context of batch processing, i.e., when identical parts must be processed consecutively. We propose an exact branch-and-bound algorithm, in which the bounds exploit the batching nature of the problem. Extensive computational results show the effectiveness of the approach, and allow us to compare it with a previous heuristic approach. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 141–164, 1998     

The impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect

An important phenomenon often observed in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect, implies that demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain, i.e., as one moves away from customer demand. In this paper we quantify this effect for simple, two‐stage, supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. We demonstrate that the use of an exponential smoothing forecast by the retailer can cause the bullwhip effect and contrast these results with the increase in variability due to the use of a moving average forecast. We consider two types of demand processes, a correlated demand process and a demand process with a linear trend. We then discuss several important managerial insights that can be drawn from this research. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 269–286, 2000     

Interpreting the Ribchester Helmet

In 1796 a 13-year-old boy playing on wasteland behind his father’s house in Ribchester, Lancashire discovered an assemblage of over 30 Roman artefacts, including a decorated brass helmet. Although partially corroded the Ribchester helmet is a fine example of a first-century AD cavalry sports helmet. This article considers how the interpretation of the helmet has evolved since its discovery. The multi-faceted iconography of the helmet with its mural crown diadem is that of an elite soldier and is paralleled in other examples of cavalry sports helmets of the Ribchester type. The long-neglected imagery on the helmet bowl is reinterpreted and seen not as a haphazard collection of randomly placed combatants but as a highly structured, symmetrical composition specifically designed to be viewed from different directions.     

The Persistent Deficit of Militia Officers in the Swiss Armed Forces: An Opportunity Cost Explanation

The Swiss Armed Forces are suffering from a structural deficit of militia officers despite good pay and a general supportive attitude in the population. Whereas, prior studies have focused on motivation to explain understaffing in armed forces, we offer an alternative approach based on opportunity cost. We model decision alternatives both within and outside a military organization, taking private sector employment as the reference point. We then monetize opportunity costs of leisure, fringe benefits, and private sector income not compensated. Our results suggest that in terms of opportunity cost, service as a militia officer is the least attractive option, an effect that we believe explains the persistent staff deficit. Implications of these findings for the literature and recruitment policy are discussed.     

Violence in context: Mapping the strategies and operational art of irregular warfare

The malaise that the United States, and the West, have experienced in recent campaigns stems in large part from unclear thinking about war, its political essence, and the strategies needed to join the two. Instead, analysis and response are predicated on entrenched theoretical concepts with limited practical utility. The inadequacy of understanding has spawned new, and not so new, terms to capture unanticipated trends, starting with the re-discovery of “insurgency” and “counterinsurgency” and leading to discussion of “hybrid threats” and “gray-zone” operations. New terminology can help, but the change must go deeper. Challenging analytical orthodoxy, this article sets out a unifying approach for the study of political violence, or more accurately: violent politics. It provides a conceptual foundation that helps to make sense of recent shifts in warfare. In effect, it offers sorely needed theoretical insights into the nature of strategy and guides the process of responding to nontraditional threats.     

On scheduling with ready-times,due-dates and vacations

A single machine sequencing problem is considered in which there are ready-time and due-date constraints on jobs and vacation constraints on the machine. Each vacation has fixed starting and finish time and no preemption is allowed for the jobs. The objective is to minimize maximum lateness. An intriguing feature of this formulation is that it allows sequencing in disconnected time windows. A relaxation of the problem is obtained by modeling the vacations as a set of jobs with flexible ready-times and artificial due-dates and a branch and bound algorithm is developed for the problem. In the algorithm, the search is not only guided by the bounds but also by a careful manipulation of the artificial due-dates. Consequently; while searching in the relaxed solution space, solutions of the original problem are implicitly enumerated. Computational results indicate that the algorithm can satisfactorily solve problems with multiple vacations.     

Estimating a survival curve when new is better than used with respect to a distinguished set

Hollander, Park, and Proschan define a survival function S of a positive random variable X to be new better than used at age t₀ (NBU-{t₀}) if S satisfies $ \begin{array}{*{20}c} {\frac{{S(x + t_0)}}{{S\left({t_0} \right)}} \le S\left(x \right),} & {{\rm for}\,{\rm all}\,x\, \ge \,0,} \\ \end{array}$ where S(x) = P(X > x). The NBU-{t₀} class is a special case of the NBU-A family of survival distributions, where A is a subset of [0, ∞). These families introduce a variety of modeling possibilities for use in reliability studies. We treat problems of nonparametric estimation of survival functions from these classes by estimators which are themselves members of the classes of interest. For a number of such classes, a recursive estimation technique is shown to produce closed-form estimators which are strongly consistent and converge to the true survival distribution at optimal rates. For other classes, additional assumptions are required to guarantee the consistency of recursive estimators. As an example of the latter case, we demonstrate the consistency of a recursive estimator for S ∈ NBU-[t₀, ∞) based on lifetime data from items surviving a preliminary “burn-in” test. The relative precision of the empirical survival curve and several recursive estimators of S are investigated via simulation; the results provide support for the claim that recursive estimators are superior to the empirical survival curve in restricted nonparametric estimation problems of the type studied here.