Expected waiting time rankings in extended machine-repair models

The present paper studies the relative magnitudes of expected waiting times in extended machine-repair models, when processing times are of two Erlang types. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 864–870, 1999     

无人机先进地面站关键技术综述

具有沉浸显示、智能辅助、自然化人机交互等先进控制能力的新型无人机地面站已成为当前无人机控制领域的研究热点。为分析其中的技术脉络,系统性地梳理国内外一系列无人机先进地面站的功能要点及设计理念,在此基础上从无人机地面站指挥控制的观察—判断—决策—行动回路出发,归纳提炼了其技术体系构成,分析指出了其中的任务环境构建、战场态势沉浸式显示、智能化辅助决策和自然化人机交互等关键技术,并对各项技术的主要研究方法进行了深入剖析,还对无人机先进地面站目前存在的挑战和未来发展趋势进行了研判。该研究对新型地面站的研制具有指导和借鉴意义。     

The impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect

An important phenomenon often observed in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect, implies that demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain, i.e., as one moves away from customer demand. In this paper we quantify this effect for simple, two‐stage, supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. We demonstrate that the use of an exponential smoothing forecast by the retailer can cause the bullwhip effect and contrast these results with the increase in variability due to the use of a moving average forecast. We consider two types of demand processes, a correlated demand process and a demand process with a linear trend. We then discuss several important managerial insights that can be drawn from this research. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 269–286, 2000     

Interpreting the Ribchester Helmet

In 1796 a 13-year-old boy playing on wasteland behind his father’s house in Ribchester, Lancashire discovered an assemblage of over 30 Roman artefacts, including a decorated brass helmet. Although partially corroded the Ribchester helmet is a fine example of a first-century AD cavalry sports helmet. This article considers how the interpretation of the helmet has evolved since its discovery. The multi-faceted iconography of the helmet with its mural crown diadem is that of an elite soldier and is paralleled in other examples of cavalry sports helmets of the Ribchester type. The long-neglected imagery on the helmet bowl is reinterpreted and seen not as a haphazard collection of randomly placed combatants but as a highly structured, symmetrical composition specifically designed to be viewed from different directions.     

The Persistent Deficit of Militia Officers in the Swiss Armed Forces: An Opportunity Cost Explanation

The Swiss Armed Forces are suffering from a structural deficit of militia officers despite good pay and a general supportive attitude in the population. Whereas, prior studies have focused on motivation to explain understaffing in armed forces, we offer an alternative approach based on opportunity cost. We model decision alternatives both within and outside a military organization, taking private sector employment as the reference point. We then monetize opportunity costs of leisure, fringe benefits, and private sector income not compensated. Our results suggest that in terms of opportunity cost, service as a militia officer is the least attractive option, an effect that we believe explains the persistent staff deficit. Implications of these findings for the literature and recruitment policy are discussed.     

舰炮身管的模态分析与多目标优化

舰炮的炮口扰动是影响舰炮射击精度的重要因素。为了减少舰炮的炮口扰动,优化身管结构,建立了柔性身管的ABAQUS有限元模型,将有限元模型的模态计算值与模态试验值进行比较,发现建立的柔性身管有限元模型是合理可行的。提出了混沌量子粒子群算法与动力学联合优化的方法,进行身管和炮口的多目标优化。优化结果表明,优化后炮口中心的线速度、角速度和角位移与优化前相比显著减小,身管质量有所降低,结构更加合理,该优化方法有效可行,为下一步全炮总体优化设计提供了一定的借鉴。     

Violence in context: Mapping the strategies and operational art of irregular warfare

The malaise that the United States, and the West, have experienced in recent campaigns stems in large part from unclear thinking about war, its political essence, and the strategies needed to join the two. Instead, analysis and response are predicated on entrenched theoretical concepts with limited practical utility. The inadequacy of understanding has spawned new, and not so new, terms to capture unanticipated trends, starting with the re-discovery of “insurgency” and “counterinsurgency” and leading to discussion of “hybrid threats” and “gray-zone” operations. New terminology can help, but the change must go deeper. Challenging analytical orthodoxy, this article sets out a unifying approach for the study of political violence, or more accurately: violent politics. It provides a conceptual foundation that helps to make sense of recent shifts in warfare. In effect, it offers sorely needed theoretical insights into the nature of strategy and guides the process of responding to nontraditional threats.     

On scheduling with ready-times,due-dates and vacations

A single machine sequencing problem is considered in which there are ready-time and due-date constraints on jobs and vacation constraints on the machine. Each vacation has fixed starting and finish time and no preemption is allowed for the jobs. The objective is to minimize maximum lateness. An intriguing feature of this formulation is that it allows sequencing in disconnected time windows. A relaxation of the problem is obtained by modeling the vacations as a set of jobs with flexible ready-times and artificial due-dates and a branch and bound algorithm is developed for the problem. In the algorithm, the search is not only guided by the bounds but also by a careful manipulation of the artificial due-dates. Consequently; while searching in the relaxed solution space, solutions of the original problem are implicitly enumerated. Computational results indicate that the algorithm can satisfactorily solve problems with multiple vacations.     

A new heuristic solution method in resource-constrained project scheduling

A new heuristic method is presented for the resolution of multiresource constrained conflicts in project scheduling. In attempting to find a minimal makespan solution, the algorithm employs a simple procedure to generate a feasible solution with no backtracking. A postanalysis phase then applies a hill-climbing search. The solution method is different from existing heuristic methods in that it repairs resource conflicts rather than constructs detailed schedules by dispatching activities. Resource-violating sets of activities are identified which must be prevented from concurrent execution because this would violate resource constraints. Repairs are made by imposing an arc to sequence two activities in such a resource violating set. Computational results are compared with those of existing heuristics for the minimal makespan problem.