Nuclear Subsidies and Proliferation: Clarifying the Link

ABSTRACT

In March 2015, the South Australian state government established a royal commission to investigate the financial, social, technical, diplomatic, and nonproliferation benefits and risks of expanding its nuclear industry, including activities related to uranium mining; enriching, reprocessing, and fabricating nuclear fuels for both domestic use and export; producing nuclear power; and storing radiological waste, including foreign spent reactor fuel. Given its enormous uranium reserves and current mining activities, some Australians have argued that Australia could benefit financially by expanding the mining sector and by adding value to its uranium exports by enriching the material and fabricating it into reactor fuel assemblies. Others have maintained that Australia can realize significant economic benefits by recycling and storing foreign spent fuel and producing carbon-free nuclear power. In the end, the commission recommended that Australia consider opening up a high-level waste repository to take in foreign spent fuel. It did not recommend any other nuclear activities at this time. The following viewpoint is based on testimony I delivered to the commission on the nuclear weapon proliferation implications of the proposed activities. If Australia wants to avoid the temptation of selling nuclear goods to states that might use these goods to make bombs, it should only consider new nuclear activities that can be entirely financed by the private sector and turn a profit without having to resort to foreign sales. This policy would also enable Australia to set an important, new international nonproliferation standard.     

Counterinsurgency as armed reform: The political history of the Malayan Emergency

Despite the emphasis in doctrine and academia that counterinsurgency is in its essence political, these operations are all too commonly discussed and approached as primarily military endeavors. Informed by the need to refocus counterinsurgency studies, this article revisits a foundational case of the canon – the Malayan Emergency – to discuss its political (i.e., not military) unfolding. The analysis distinguishes itself by emphasizing the diplomatic processes, negotiations, and deals that gave strategic meaning to the military operations underway. In so doing, the article also generates insight on the use of leverage and elite bargains in creating new political settlements and bringing insurgent conflicts to an end.     

The fast deployment logistic ship project: Economic design and decision technique

This paper describes the way in which economic analyses, particularly life-cycle cost analyses and tradeoffs were structured for use as an integrated analysis and design technique at all levels of the Contract Definition of the Fast Deployment Logistic Ship. It describes system, subsystem and major component economic analysis and design methodology as well as economic analyses of special subjects such as the ship production facility design. Illustrations are provided of several major system parametric studies and of shipyard and manning/automation analyses.     

Inference for the maximum cell probability under multinomial sampling

This article investigates inference for p_max, the largest cell probability in multinomial trials for the case of a small to moderate number of trials. Emphasis focuses on point and interval estimation. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are developed. The results of extensive simulation investigation are included as well as the analysis of a set of crime data for the city of New Orleans taken from the National Crime Survey.     

基于SDG的物资供应动态过程定性模型的建立

针对物资供应过程仿真中仿真信息不明确、不完整、比较模糊而又难于定量化描述的问题,引入定性仿真中符号定向图(SDG)法,定性分析了通用物资供应的过程.首先,提取物资供应过程中各定性环节要素,对其建立定性关系方程和定性模型(SDG模型图),然后,根据方程和模型仿真结果给出具体环节因素的取值标准.通过实例验证得出了用定性建模的方法研究物资供应动态过程更加简明实际的结论.     

飞机电传操纵系统控制律的神经网络实现

现代多功能战机多用电传操纵系统替代传统的机械杆系,但由于飞机的多变量、强耦合和不稳定等强非线性特点,使得其电传控制律的工程实现相当复杂.为此,对电传操纵系统控制律的神经网络实现方法进行了研究.通过利用径向基函数(RBF)网络良好的非线性跟踪性能,探讨了用RBF网络实现电传控制律的一般方法,并以某型飞机电传操纵系统纵向通道为例,对该方法进行了验证.     

Combining standardized time series area and Cramér–von Mises variance estimators

We propose three related estimators for the variance parameter arising from a steady‐state simulation process. All are based on combinations of standardized‐time‐series area and Cramér–von Mises (CvM) estimators. The first is a straightforward linear combination of the area and CvM estimators; the second resembles a Durbin–Watson statistic; and the third is related to a jackknifed version of the first. The main derivations yield analytical expressions for the bias and variance of the new estimators. These results show that the new estimators often perform better than the pure area, pure CvM, and benchmark nonoverlapping and overlapping batch means estimators, especially in terms of variance and mean squared error. We also give exact and Monte Carlo examples illustrating our findings.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007