Expected waiting time rankings in extended machine-repair models

The present paper studies the relative magnitudes of expected waiting times in extended machine-repair models, when processing times are of two Erlang types. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 864–870, 1999     

The impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect

An important phenomenon often observed in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect, implies that demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain, i.e., as one moves away from customer demand. In this paper we quantify this effect for simple, two‐stage, supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. We demonstrate that the use of an exponential smoothing forecast by the retailer can cause the bullwhip effect and contrast these results with the increase in variability due to the use of a moving average forecast. We consider two types of demand processes, a correlated demand process and a demand process with a linear trend. We then discuss several important managerial insights that can be drawn from this research. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 269–286, 2000     

Interpreting the Ribchester Helmet

In 1796 a 13-year-old boy playing on wasteland behind his father’s house in Ribchester, Lancashire discovered an assemblage of over 30 Roman artefacts, including a decorated brass helmet. Although partially corroded the Ribchester helmet is a fine example of a first-century AD cavalry sports helmet. This article considers how the interpretation of the helmet has evolved since its discovery. The multi-faceted iconography of the helmet with its mural crown diadem is that of an elite soldier and is paralleled in other examples of cavalry sports helmets of the Ribchester type. The long-neglected imagery on the helmet bowl is reinterpreted and seen not as a haphazard collection of randomly placed combatants but as a highly structured, symmetrical composition specifically designed to be viewed from different directions.     

The Persistent Deficit of Militia Officers in the Swiss Armed Forces: An Opportunity Cost Explanation

The Swiss Armed Forces are suffering from a structural deficit of militia officers despite good pay and a general supportive attitude in the population. Whereas, prior studies have focused on motivation to explain understaffing in armed forces, we offer an alternative approach based on opportunity cost. We model decision alternatives both within and outside a military organization, taking private sector employment as the reference point. We then monetize opportunity costs of leisure, fringe benefits, and private sector income not compensated. Our results suggest that in terms of opportunity cost, service as a militia officer is the least attractive option, an effect that we believe explains the persistent staff deficit. Implications of these findings for the literature and recruitment policy are discussed.     

Violence in context: Mapping the strategies and operational art of irregular warfare

The malaise that the United States, and the West, have experienced in recent campaigns stems in large part from unclear thinking about war, its political essence, and the strategies needed to join the two. Instead, analysis and response are predicated on entrenched theoretical concepts with limited practical utility. The inadequacy of understanding has spawned new, and not so new, terms to capture unanticipated trends, starting with the re-discovery of “insurgency” and “counterinsurgency” and leading to discussion of “hybrid threats” and “gray-zone” operations. New terminology can help, but the change must go deeper. Challenging analytical orthodoxy, this article sets out a unifying approach for the study of political violence, or more accurately: violent politics. It provides a conceptual foundation that helps to make sense of recent shifts in warfare. In effect, it offers sorely needed theoretical insights into the nature of strategy and guides the process of responding to nontraditional threats.     

On scheduling with ready-times,due-dates and vacations

A single machine sequencing problem is considered in which there are ready-time and due-date constraints on jobs and vacation constraints on the machine. Each vacation has fixed starting and finish time and no preemption is allowed for the jobs. The objective is to minimize maximum lateness. An intriguing feature of this formulation is that it allows sequencing in disconnected time windows. A relaxation of the problem is obtained by modeling the vacations as a set of jobs with flexible ready-times and artificial due-dates and a branch and bound algorithm is developed for the problem. In the algorithm, the search is not only guided by the bounds but also by a careful manipulation of the artificial due-dates. Consequently; while searching in the relaxed solution space, solutions of the original problem are implicitly enumerated. Computational results indicate that the algorithm can satisfactorily solve problems with multiple vacations.     

When is greedy module assembly optimal?

Many coherent systems are configurations of identically structured modules, each consisting of a number of different components. The objective is to assemble the modules out of a collection of available components, and to install the modules in the system in a way that maximizes reliability. The greedy assembly rule builds one module out of the best available components, another out of the best remaining components, and so on. This article shows that greedy assembly is optimal whenever the modules have a series structure, no matter what the structure of the system in which the modules will be used might be, provided that the modules, once assembled, are installed in the system in an optimal way. The article also demonstrates that series modules are unique in this regard.     

The frequency assignment problem: A solution via nonlinear programming

This paper gives a mathematical programming model for the problem of assigning frequencies to nodes in a communications network. The objective is to select a frequency assignment which minimizes both cochannel and adjacent-channel interference. In addition, a design engineer has the option to designate key links in which the avoidance of jamming due to self interference is given a higher priority. The model has a nonconvex quadratic objective function, generalized upper-bounding constraints, and binary decision variables. We developed a special heuristic algorithm and software for this model and tested it on five test problems which were modifications of a real-world problem. Even though most of the test problems had over 600 binary variables, we were able to obtain a near optimum in less than 12 seconds of CPU time on a CDC Cyber-875.