Warranty reserves for nonstationary sales processes

Estimation of warranty costs, in the event of product failure within the warranty period, is of importance to the manufacturer. Costs associated with replacement or repair of the product are usually drawn from a warranty reserve fund created by the manufacturer. Considering a stochastic sales process, first and second moments (and thereby the variance) are derived for the manufacturer's total discounted warranty cost of a single sale for single‐component items under four different warranty policies from a manufacturer's point of view. These servicing strategies represent a renewable free‐replacement, nonrenewable free‐replacement, renewable pro‐rata, and a nonrenewable minimal‐repair warranty plans. The results are extended to determine the mean and variance of total discounted warranty costs for the total sales over the life cycle of the product. Furthermore, using a normal approximation, warranty reserves necessary for a certain protection level, so that reserves are not completely depleted, are found. Results and their managerial implications are studied through an extensive example. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 499–513, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10023     

一种面向个性化服务的无需反例集的用户建模方法

随着WWW信息的快速增长 ,查找用户感兴趣的信息变得越来越耗时耗力。个性化服务能为不同的用户提供有针对性的服务 ,日益受到研究者的重视。用户建模是实现个性化服务的关键技术。传统的需要正、反例集作为训练例集的用户建模方法容易干扰用户的正常浏览 ,或者由于推断失误而引入噪声。基于遗传算法和k近邻方法提出了一种无需反例集的用户建模方法 ,该方法被应用于个性化信息过滤中。实验结果表明 ,基于无需反例集的用户建模方法的信息过滤算法可以达到 73 91%的过滤率和 94 4 4 %的过滤精度。无需反例集的用户建模方法是一种可行、高效的用户建模方法     

无感电阻网络分流器研制与性能分析

分析了雷电浪涌发生器短路电流波形的特点 ,研制了无感电阻网络分流器 ,实验证明该分流器测试结果的重复性和测试不同量值的雷电脉冲电流时的线性度 ,均符合国家标准GB/T176 2 6 5 - 1999和国际电工委员会标准IEC6 10 0 0 - 4- 5的要求。     

Rare‐event component importance for the consecutive‐k system

Various indices of component importance with respect to system reliability have been proposed. The most popular one is the Birnbaum importance. In particular, a special case called uniform Birnbaum importance in which all components have the same reliability p has been widely studied for the consecutive‐k system. Since it is not easy to compare uniform Birnbaum importance, the literature has looked into the case p = ½, p → 1, or p ≥ ½. In this paper, we look into the case p → 0 to complete the spectrum of examining Birnbaum importance over the whole range of p. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 159–166, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10001     

基于两阶段感染过程分析的蠕虫传播模型SSI

合理的蠕虫传播模型可以准确地描述蠕虫类恶意代码在网络中的传播行为,有助于在开展蠕虫防护、检测和抑制技术的研究时更深入地分析蠕虫的传播机制。通过引入和分析蠕虫的感染时间这个在经典的传染病模型研究中被忽略的重要因素,使用确定性建模分析方法推导得出SSI蠕虫传播模型,合理地反映网络中的脆弱性主机在蠕虫传播时可能的状态转换。模拟仿真表明,SSI模型可以相对准确地描述蠕虫类恶意代码在网络中的传播过程。     

落实“三个紧贴”战略要求 增强改进创新思想政治工作的实效

落实"三个紧贴"战略要求,增强改进创新思想政治工作的实效,必须深刻理解"三个紧贴"的科学内涵,真正把思想统一到胡主席的重要指示精神上来;坚持以科学发展观为统领,切实把握好改进创新思想政治工作的目标导向;始终围绕理论联系实际这个核心,努力增强思想政治教育的实效性;加大党委对这项工作的领导和指导力度,切实提高加强改进创新思想政治工作的质量.     

不断提高党委贯彻党的根本制度的质量

提高党委贯彻党的根本制度质量,要把抓好民主集中制的学习作为防止和克服党委工作行政化的紧迫任务和基础工程来抓,打牢"一班人"思想基础;把深刻理解根本制度的科学内涵和基本要求作为防止和克服党委工作行政化的前提基础,切实澄清模糊认识;把加强检查督导作为防止和克服党委工作行政化的重要保证,切实发挥正副书记的表率作用和制度机制的约束作用.     

The assignment of storage locations to containers for a container stack

Assigning storage locations to incoming or reshuffled containers is a fundamental problem essential to the operations efficiency of container terminals. The problem is notoriously hard for its combinatorial and dynamic nature. In this article, we minimize the number of reshuffles in assigning storage locations for incoming and reshuffled export containers. For the static problem to empty a given stack without any new container arrival, the optimum reshuffle sequence is identified by an integer program (IP). The integer program captures the evolution of stack configurations as a function of decisions and is of interest by itself. Heuristics based on the integer program are then derived. Their competitiveness in accuracy and time are established by extensive numerical runs comparing them with existing heuristics in literature and in practice as well as with extensions of the existing heuristics. Variants of the IP‐based heuristics are then applied to the dynamic problem with continual retrievals and arrivals of containers. Again, numerical runs confirm that the IP‐based heuristic is competitive. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

评估指标体系的简化研究与应用

建立评估指标体系是一种解决复杂问题评估的常见方法.为避免指标体系过于庞大,评估过程过于复杂,指标体系简化有着非常重要的意义.采用权重系数法和极大不相关法可以有效地对指标体系进行简化.通过对集团军装备保障能力评估指标体系简化的实例分析,表明所提出的方法较好地解决了简化和全面的矛盾.确保了评估的科学性.