Bounds and properties of the expected value of sample information for a project-selection problem

In this article we extend the work of Mehrez and Stulman [5] on the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) to the expected value of sample information (EVSI) for a class of economic problems dealing with the decision to reject or accept an investment project. It is shown that shifting the mean of the underlying a priori distribution of X, the project's monetary value from zero in either direction will decrease the associated EVSI of Y, the random sampled information. A theorem is then presented which gives an upper bound on the EVSI over all distributions of Y, as well as the structure of the posterior mean E[X|Y] for which this upper bound is achieved. Finally, the case where E[X|Y] is linear in Y is discussed and its performance compared with that of the optimal case.     

Some order relations in closed networks of queues with multiserver stations

Consider a closed network of queues of the “product-form” type, where each station has s servers (s ≥ 1 is identical for all stations). We show that the throughput function of the network is Schur concave with respect to the loading of the stations and arrangement increasing with respect to the assignment of server groups. Consequently, different loading/assignment policies can be compared under majorization/arrangement orderings and their relative merits decided according to the yields of throughput. The results can be used to support planning decisions in computer and production systems which are modeled as closed networks of queues.     

Strength in Numbers: The Labour Government and the Size of the Polaris Force

Previous historical accounts have simplified the Labour government's decision to commission a four-boat strategic nuclear deterrent, or ‘Polaris force’, in early 1965. Utilising previously classified sources, this article shows that a number of key strategic concerns led the decision-making process. Nevertheless, broader economic and diplomatic considerations were also important in determining the size of the Polaris force. A tremendous balance of payments deficit and ongoing debates regarding levels of conventional and nuclear involvement in NATO certainly influenced the government's final decision. Moreover, competing strategic and economic interests resulted in continued debate throughout the decision-making process.     

Aiming to Break Will: America's World War II Bombing of German Morale and its Ramifications

This article examines the implications of the proliferation of cyberwarfare capabilities for the character and frequency of war. Consideration of strategic logic, perceptions, and bargaining dynamics finds that the size of the effect of the proliferation of cyberwarfare capabilities on the frequency of war will probably be relatively small. This effect will not be constant across all situations; in some cases the advent of cyberwarfare capabilities may decrease the likelihood of war. On the other hand, the use of computer network attack as a brute force weapon will probably become increasingly frequent.     

Jonathan Boff Winning and Losing on the Western Front. The British Third Army and the Defeat of Germany in 1918.

Building indigenous armies in Asia with military advisory and aid programs has been a mission of the United States Army for over 100 years. Creation of an indigenous army was an early goal of American occupation policy in Korea, but little support and resources were assigned. Between 1946 and 1948, a minute American advisory effort partially trained and equipped a Korean Army cadre of 25,000 men. The unceasing efforts of a talented American advisor, Captain James Hausman, made success possible. He dominated the small advisory group, was given carte blanche to implement his ideas, and left indelible changes on what became the South Korean Army.     

Sir Robert Thompson,Strategic Patience and Nixon’s War in Vietnam

Counter-insurgency scholars have long been familiar with Sir Robert Thompson’s classic work Defeating Communist Insurgency, which combined analysis of the insurgencies in Malaya and Vietnam with advice for counter-insurgents that emphasised the drawn-out nature of insurgency and the importance of focusing on population security. While historians have called attention to his role with the British Advisory Mission in South Vietnam and his later criticism of the US counter-insurgency campaign in Vietnam in his various books, less has been written about his subsequent role as a pacification advisor to the Nixon administration. This article explores Thompson’s relationship with Kissinger and Nixon and his views on the war in Vietnam from 1969 to 1974. An examination of Thompson’s thinking on Vietnam in the Nixon years reveals a theorist whose optimism on US prospects there was based on assumptions about elite and public patience for lengthy wars that were ultimately misplaced.     

Communications intelligence and the battle for convoy OG 71, 15–23 August 1941

In 1941, the British instituted a comprehensive system of convoys in the Atlantic. One of the first convoys, OG 71, while sailing between Britain and Gibraltar, was shadowed by German aircraft and attacked by U‐boats. In the ensuing August battle, while no U‐boats were sunk, the British lost, out of a convoy consisting of 22 vessels, two escorts and eight merchant ships. The German victory was not complete owing to the inability of the German aircraft and U‐boats to cooperate successfully as well as the failure of the U‐boats to fight the battle effectively and aggressively. The British also made many mistakes during the defence of Convoy OG 71. The surface escorts made many errors of tactics; as for the British aircraft, owing to an inability to cooperate with the surface forces, they became almost totally ineffective. One bright spot for the British during the battle, however, was communications intelligence. The battle saw the first use of high frequency direction finders and on several occasions skillful use was made of information obtained from enemy radio transmissions. In fact important lessons were learned by the British from such use of communications intelligence which would pave the way for a more effective implementation of such information in future convoy battles.     

The Naval Intelligence Underpinnings of Reagan's Maritime Strategy

Washington's so-called Maritime Strategy, which sought to apply US naval might against Soviet vulnerabilities on its maritime flanks, came to full fruition during the 1980s. The strategy, which witnessed a major buildup of US naval forces and aggressive exercising in seas proximate to the USSR, also explicitly targeted Moscow”s strategic missile submarines with the aim of pressuring the Kremlin during crises or the early phases of global war. Relying on a variety of interviews and newly declassified documents, the authors assert that the Maritime Strategy represents one of the rare instances in history when intelligence helped lead a nation to completely revise its concept of military operations.     

Disregarding the Bear: How US Intelligence Failed to Estimate the Soviet Intervention in the Egyptian–Israeli War of Attrition 1

This article analyzes the main factors that contributed to the failure of the US intelligence community to alert against Soviet intentions and the intervention in the Egyptian–Israeli War of Attrition in 1969–70. Based on fresh archival sources, this research describes the US intelligence conception concerning the USSR; explains the crystallization of the intelligence estimate on the probability of Soviet intervention in 1970; deals with the intelligence data that were acquired but eventually ignored; and concludes with several plausible explanations for the intelligence blunder.     

MULTIPARTY DEMOCRACY IN TANZANIA

This article attempts to understand the manner in which the notion of good governance has been applied in the United Republic of Tanzania. In 1989, the World Bank issued a document which argued that Africa's development problems were in essence a crisis of governance. This became the basis for the imposition of conditionalities in order to establish liberal democratic governments. More than a decade later, good governance still dominates the donor agenda, which is reminiscent of the heyday of colonialism and the civilising mission that thrust Africa into the orbit of the European world, albeit as a ‘dark continent’. Although Tanzania has escaped the more overt political turmoil that plagued neighbouring countries, the country appears to be open to inter-ethnic rivalry due largely to Zanzibar, the site of the greatest opposition to the ruling party, in power since independence. The challenge is to deal with the dysfunctional economy and to meet the growing demands of its population for adequate social services. The ideal of self-reliance espoused by Nyerere is no longer a choice but a necessity.