The Odyssey of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

This study examines the failures of the William J. Clinton and Barack Obama administrations to secure ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). It applies an integrated analytical framework for assessing treaty ratification that builds upon previous research in order to understand why the Clinton administration failed to achieve CTBT ratification in 1999 and why the Obama administration has so far failed to advance the treaty in the Senate. The study concludes that CTBT ratification, despite Obama administration pledges of support, remains highly unlikely. Finally, the study analyzes the common domestic political factors present in both cases and suggests areas for further research.     

Tests for transient means in simulated time series

We present a family of tests to detect the presence of a transient mean in a simulation process. These tests compare variance estimators from different parts of a simulation run, and are based on the methods of batch means and standardized time series. Our tests can be viewed as natural generalizations of some previously published work. We also include a power analysis of the new tests, as well as some illustrative examples. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

On compounded bivariate poisson distributions

A unified treatment is given for a class of discrete distributions derived by compounding a bivariate Poisson with a bivariate discrete or continuous distribution. Using generating functions a number of interesting results are obtained for probabilities, moments, cumulants, factorial moments, and factorial cumulants. Conditional distributions and regression functions are also examined. Five illustrative examples are presented in detail. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Book Reviews

National Security Concepts of States: New Zealand. By Kennedy Graham. Taylor & Francis, London (1989), ISBN 0-8448-1614-0, £27.00

Power and Prestige in the British Army. By R.G. L. von Zugbach. Gower, Aldershot (1988), ISBN 0-566-05561-9, £22.50

The American Civil War and the Origins of Modern Warfare—Ideas, Organization, and Field Command. By Edward Hagerman. Indiana University Press, Bloomington, IN (1988), ISBN 0-253-30546-2, $37.50 (£23.29)

British Seapower and Procurement between the Wars: a Reappraisal of Rearmament. By G. A. H. Gordon. Macmillan, London (1988), ISBN 0-333-42332-1. £29.50

Armies in Low-intensity Conflict: a Comparative Analysis. Edited by David A. Charters and Maurice Tugwell. Brassey's Defence Publishers, London (1989), ISBN 0-08-036253-2, £25.00 ($45.00); Deadly Paradigms: the Failure of U.S. Counterinsurgency Policy. By Michael Shafer, Leicester University Press, Leicester (1988), ISBN 0-7185-1311-8, £28.00

British Defence Policy Striking the Right Balance. By J. Baylis. Macmillan, London (1989), ISBN 0-333-49133-5, £29.50 or £9.99     

Sequential and systematic sampling plans for the Markov‐dependent production process

Acceptance sampling plans are used to assess the quality of an ongoing production process, in addition to the lot acceptance. In this paper, we consider sampling inspection plans for monitoring the Markov‐dependent production process. We construct sequential plans that satisfy the usual probability requirements at acceptable quality level and rejectable quality level and, in addition, possess the minimum average sample number under semicurtailed inspection. As these plans result in large sample sizes, especially when the serial correlation is high, we suggest new plans called “systematic sampling plans.” The minimum average sample number systematic plans that satisfy the probability requirements are constructed. Our algorithm uses some simple recurrence relations to compute the required acceptance probabilities. The optimal systematic plans require much smaller sample sizes and acceptance numbers, compared to the sequential plans. However, they need larger production runs to make a decision. Tables for choosing appropriate sequential and systematic plans are provided. The problem of selecting the best systematic sampling plan is also addressed. The operating characteristic curves of some of the sequential and the systematic plans are compared, and are observed to be almost identical. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 451–467, 2001     

Balancing and optimizing a portfolio of R&D projects

A mathematical formulation of an optimization model designed to select projects for inclusion in an R&D portfolio, subject to a wide variety of constraints (e.g., capital, headcount, strategic intent, etc.), is presented. The model is similar to others that have previously appeared in the literature and is in the form of a mixed integer programming (MIP) problem known as the multidimensional knapsack problem. Exact solution of such problems is generally difficult, but can be accomplished in reasonable time using specialized algorithms. The main contribution of this paper is an examination of two important issues related to formulation of project selection models such as the one presented here. If partial funding and implementation of projects is allowed, the resulting formulation is a linear programming (LP) problem which can be solved quite easily. Several plausible assumptions about how partial funding impacts project value are presented. In general, our examples suggest that the problem might best be formulated as a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem, but that there is a need for further research to determine an appropriate expression for the value of a partially funded project. In light of that gap in the current body of knowledge and for practical reasons, the LP relaxation of this model is preferred. The LP relaxation can be implemented in a spreadsheet (even for relatively large problems) and gives reasonable results when applied to a test problem based on GM's R&D project selection process. There has been much discussion in the literature on the topic of assigning a quantitative measure of value to each project. Although many alternatives are suggested, no one way is universally accepted as the preferred way. There does seem to be general agreement that all of the proposed methods are subject to considerable uncertainty. A systematic way to examine the sensitivity of project selection decisions to variations in the measure of value is developed. It is shown that the solution for the illustrative problem is reasonably robust to rather large variations in the measure of value. We cannot, however, conclude that this would be the case in general. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 18–40, 2001