On the evaluation of investment proposals having multiple attributes

A framework is developed for analyzing the likelihood of acceptance of an investment project proposal when objectives are uncertain. The foundation is a utility model of top management's choice process, modified if need be through a Bayesian approach which takes into account any apparent inconsistency in the history of past proposal acceptances and rejections.     

MARKOVIAN DETERIORATION WITH UNCERTAIN INFORMATION — A MORE GENERAL MODEL

A model of a deteriorating system with imperfect information is considered. The structures appropriate for such a model include failing machinery and depleted inventory systems. In an effort to add a new dimension to such models, it is assumed that the operator must pay an inspection cost to determine the precise state of the system. At the start of every time period, the operator is faced with three choices: repair, no action, or inspection. Under fairly general assumptions, the optimal policy for repair is found to be straightforward and intuitive. This result has two important areas of application.     

Optimal inventory policy when stockouts alter demand

An inventory model in which future demand is affected by stockouts has been considered recently by B. L. Schwartz. Some generalizations of Schwartz's model are presented in this paper and properties of the optimal policies are determined. In the case of deterministic demand, a set-up cost is included and a mixture of backlogged and nonbacklogged orders is allowed during stockout. It is proved that the optimal policy entails either no stockout or continual stockout, depending on the values of three parameters. For stochastic demand, the effect of stockouts on demand density is postulated, the resulting optimal inventory policy is discussed, and an example involving an exponential density function is then analyzed in detail.     

Armor configurations via dynamic programming

The problem of selecting materials, their thicknesses and order for armor designed for the defeat of shaped charge threats, has been formulated as a constrained optimization problem. The mathematical model provides an optimal order and thickness of each layer of material such that the resulting armor configuration will be of minimum mass per unit area subject to constraints on total thickness and shaped charge jet tip exit velocity.     

Optimal multicommodity network flows with resource allocation

The problem of determining multicommodity flows over a capacitated network subject to resource constraints may be solved by linear programming; however, the number of potential vectors in most applications is such that the standard arc-chain formulation becomes impractical. This paper describes an approach—an extension of the column generation technique used in the multicommodity network flow problem—that simultaneously considers network chain selection and resource allocation, thus making the problem both manageable and optimal. The flow attained is constrained by resource availability and network capacity. A minimum-cost formulation is described and an extension to permit the substitution of resources is developed. Computational experience with the model is discussed.     

A combined approach to solve binary multicriteria problems

An implicit enumeration algorithm is developed to determine the set of efficient points in zero-one multiple criteria problems. The algorithm is specialized for the solution of a particular class of facility location problems. The procedure is complemented with the use of the utility function of the decision maker to identify a subset of efficient point candidates for the final selection. Computational results are provided and discussed.     

An alternative proof of the IFRA property of some shock models

Let , where A (t)/t is nondecreasing in t, {P(k)^1/k} is nonincreasing. It is known that H(t) = 1 — H (t) is an increasing failure rate on the average (IFRA) distribution. A proof based on the IFRA closure theorem is given. H(t) is the distribution of life for systems undergoing shocks occurring according to a Poisson process where P (k) is the probability that the system survives k shocks. The proof given herein shows there is an underlying connection between such models and monotone systems of independent components that explains the IFRA life distribution occurring in both models.     

On a search for a moving target

We consider the problem of searching for a target that moves in discrete time and space according to some Markovian process. At each time, a searcher attempts to detect the target. If the searcher's action at each time is such as to maximize his chances of immediate detection, we call his strategy “myopic.” We provide a computationally useful necessary condition for optimality, and use it to provide an example wherein the myopic strategy is not optimal.