Book reviews

Managing International Conflict, From Theory to Practice: a Teaching Tool Using CASCON by Lincoln P. Bloomfield and Allen Moulton, New York: St Martin's Press, 1997, ISBN 0-312-13675-7 (pbk), £18.99.

The American Century: the Rise and Decline of the United States as a World Power by Donald W. White, London: Yale University Press, 1997, ISBN 0-300-05721-0 (hbk), £25.

Humanitarian Intervention in Contemporary Conflict by Oliver Ramsbotham and Tom Woodhouse, Cambridge: Blackwell, 1996.

The US Military/NGO Relationship in Humanitarian Interventions by Chris Seiple, Peacekeeping Institute, Center for Strategic Leadership, US Army War College, 1996.

Uncivil Wars: International Security and the New Internal Conflicts by Donald M. Snow, London: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1996, ISBN 1-55587-655-2 (pbk), £15.50, ISBN 1-55587-648-X (hbk), £33.50.

Intelligence Power in Peace and War by Michael Herman, Royal Institute for International Affairs, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, ISBN 0-521-56231-7 (hbk), £50, ISBN 0-521-56636 (pbk), £16.95.

UK Eyes Alpha: Inside British Intelligence by Mark Urban, London: Faber and Faber, 1996, ISBN 0-571-17689-5 (hbk), £16.99.

New Cloak, Old Dagger by Michael Smith, London: Victor Gollancz, 1996, ISBN 0-575-06150-2 (hbk), £20.

Conversion Survey 1997: Global Disarmament and Disposal of Surplus Weapons by Bonn International Center for Conversion, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997.

Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium 1996: World Inventories, Capabilities and Policies by David Albright, Frans Berkhout and William Walker, Oxford: SIPRI and Oxford University Press, 1997.

The Wars of Eduard Shevardnadze by Carolyn McGiffert Ekedahl and Melvin A. Goodman, University Park, PA: Penn State University Press, 1997.     

The traveling salesman problem: An update of research

During the course of the last few years, attacks on the traveling salesman problem have resulted in a variety of often innovative and rather powerful computational procedures. In this article, we present a review of these results for problems defined on weighted and unweighted graphs. Some account of computational behavior for exact algorithms is provided; however, the primary coverage deals with the strategy of particular procedures. In addition, we include some aspects of nonexact algorithms with major interest confined to the establishment of worst-case bounds.     

On estimating the reliability of a component subject to several different stresses (strengths)

This paper is concerned with estimating p = P(X₁ < Y …, X_n < Y) or q =P (X < Y₁, …, X < Y_n) where the X's and Y's are all independent random variables. Applications to estimation of the reliability p from stress-strength relationships are considered where a component is subject to several stresses X₁, X₂, …, X_N whereas its strength, Y, is a single random variable. Similarly, the reliability q is of interest where a component is made of several parts all with their individual strengths Y₁, Y₂ …, Y_N and a single stress X is applied to the component. When the X's and Y's are independent and normal, maximum likelihood estimates of p and q have been obtained. For the case N = 2 and in some special cases, minimum variance unbiased estimates have been given. When the Y's are all exponential and the X is normal with known variance, but unknown mean (or uniform between 0 and θ, θ being unknown) the minimum variance unbiased estimate of q is established in this paper.     

Calculation of the cost of warranty policies as a function of estimated life distributions

Two types of warranties are analyzed. These are the free-replacement warranty, under which failed items are replaced free of charge until a specified total operating time has been achieved, and the pro rata warranty, under which items that fail prior to a specified time are replaced at pro rata cost to the buyer. Both the buyer's and seller's points of view are considered. The basis of the analysis is a comparison of warranted and unwarranted (otherwise identical) items with regard to long-run cost to the buyer and long-run profit to the seller. Application of the results requires knowledge of certain characteristics of the life distribution of the items in question. Parametric and nonparametric methods of estimation of these characteristics from incomplete data are discussed. Single and multiple failure-mode situations are considered. Some solutions to the problem are illustrated using incomplete data on failure times of an aircraft component.     

Upper and lower bounds for a pattern bombing problem

This paper includes two simple analytic formulas for kill probability that are applicable in circumstances where shots should be fired in a pattern. The two formulas bracket the maximum kill probability achievable with an optimal pattern. The upper bound corresponds to an optimal nonfeasible pattern, and the lower bound to a nonoptimal feasible pattern.