忆郭化若中将两谈中央苏区第一次反"围剿"

上世纪70年代,江西永丰县龙岗为筹办中央苏区第一次反"围剿"陈列馆,笔者受命征集各种口碑资料,两次专程拜访我党军事理论家和军事教育家郭化若中将,因他当年在毛泽东、朱德身边工作,任红军总部参谋处长兼作战科长,草拟第一、第二、第三次反"围剿"作战命令,是战役指挥的高层亲历者,便请他追忆当年在赣南山区与国民党军周旋的所见所闻.     

Military deployment and international terrorism: do location and mission type matter?

Extant literature documents a relationship between military deployment and the risk of an international terrorist attack against citizens of the deploying country. It appears that deployment significantly increases the possibility of terrorist actions in the home country. In particular, if country A decides to send troops to nation B, then citizens of the former country are more likely to fall victim of an attack carried out by a terrorist organisation originating from the latter country. Contributing to this line of literature, we further refine this relationship by distinguishing between regions where the troops are sent as well as by introducing differences between types of deployment. Our results indicate that missions to Asia and the Middle East are more dangerous than missions to other regions as reflected by the terrorist threat in the home country. Robustness tests do however show that the significance of the location variable Asia is predominantly attributed to the mission to Afghanistan. As for types of deployment, only ad hoc missions seem to increase the risk of an attack, whereas no significant results are found for other missions such as operations under UN and NATO flag. Leaving out the missions to Iraq and Afghanistan however also increases the danger resulting from missions by fixed coalitions. Our results find however no evidence that ‘wearing a blue helmet’ increases the probability of a terrorist attack at home.     

An engagement model to optimize defense against a multiple attack assuming perfect kill assessment

We present an air-defense engagement model to counter an attack by multiple antiship missiles, assuming perfect kill assessment. In this model, the probability of shooting down all incoming missiles is maximized. A generating function is employed to produce an algorithm which is used to evaluate the outcomes. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 687–697, 1997     

论中国战略文化的近代流变

中华“天下观”把和谐的天下秩序作为基本的价值追求,并由此形成了求和平、谋统一、重防御的中国战略文化传统。近代以来,在西方“强权即是公理”的战略文化冲击下,为了实现救亡图存的历史使命,中国战略文化实现了文化革新,但其基本价值观念没有变,至今仍然影响着中国的对外战略选择。     

Storage life prediction under pre-strained thermally-accelerated aging of HTPB coating using the change of crosslinking density

In order to predict the storage life of a certain type of HTPB (hydroyl-terminated polybutadiene) coating at 25 C and analyze the influence of pre-strain on the storage life, the accelerated aging tests of HTPB coating at 40 C, 50 C, 60 C, 70 C with the pre-strain of 0%, 3%, 6%, 9%, respectively were carried out. The variation regularity of the change of crosslinking density was analyzed and the aging model of HTPB coating under pre-strained thermally-accelerated aging was proposed. The storage life of HTPB coating at 25 C was estimated by using the Berthelot equation as the end point of the aging life with a 30% decrease in maximum elongation. The results showed that the change of crosslinking density of HTPB coating increased with the increase of aging temperature and aging time, and decreased with the in-crease of pre-strain. Under 0% pre-strain, the relationship between the change of crosslinking density of HTPB coating and the aging time can be described by the logarithmic model with the confidence probability greater than 99%.The stress relaxation phenomenon existed under 3%, 6% and 9% pre-strained aging. The aging model considering chemical aging and pre-strain was established with the confidence probability greater than 90%. The storage life of HTPB coating was 15.2935 years at 25 C under 0% pre-strain, which was reduced by 13.9007%, 75.6949% and 89.7859% under 3%, 6% and 9% pre-strain, respectively. The existence of pre-strain has a serious impact on the storage life of HTPB coating, therefore, the pre-strain should be avoided as much as possible during the actual storage.     

Study on energy release characteristics of reactive material casings under explosive loading

Reactive Materials (RMs), a new material with structural and energy release characteristics under shock-induced chemical reactions, are promising in extensive applications in national defense and military fields. They can increase the lethality of warheads due to their dual functionality. This paper focuses on the energy release characteristics of RM casings prepared by alloy melting and casting process under explosive loading. Explosion experiments of RM and conventional 2A12 aluminum alloy casings were conducted in free field to capture the explosive fireballs, temperature distribution, peak overpressure of the air shock wave and the fracture morphology of fragments of reactive material (RM) warhead casings by using high-speed camera, infrared thermal imager temperature and peak overpressure testing and scanning electron microscope. Results showed that an increase of both the fireball temperature and air shock wave were observed in all RM casings compared to conventional 2A12 aluminum ally casings. The RM casings can improve the peak overpressure of the air shock wave under explosion loading, though the results are different with different charge ratios. According to the energy release characteristics of the RM, increasing the thickness of RM casings will increase the peak overpressure of the near-field air shock wave, while reducing the thickness will increase the peak overpressure of the far-field air shock wave.     

一种内陆环境溢油综合监测系统方案设计

针对内陆环境油品储存和运输场所面积大、植被多、地形多变、单一技术难以实现全范围溢油监测的情况,将复杂内陆环境下的油品储运区分为作业区、周围山地和水域3个主体区域,设计了一种基于无线通信的溢油综合监测系统方案。系统由综合监测报警中心和可燃气体、土壤溢油、水面浮油3个探测报警模块通过无线连接组成,各模块均包括若干相应的探测器和现场报警控制器,可对油品作业区及周围山地、水域进行全范围实时监测,及时报警泄漏溢油隐患,降低泄漏溢油事故发生几率。     

地面微型网域武器攻击方案

提出了地面微型网域武器的三种攻击方案,并分析了三种攻击方案的优缺点,对地面微型网域武器的三种攻击方案进行了MATLAB仿真分析。在综合考虑各个因素后,得出了一种最佳攻击方案。     

进军新疆

1949年10月12日,中国人民解放军第一野战军第1兵团第2军从酒泉出发进军新疆。新疆地域辽阔,从酒泉至喀什2500多公里,沿途峰峦叠嶂,沙漠瀚海,冰川雪岭,艰险异常。官兵们顶风沙、冒严寒,日夜兼程,除了同严酷的自然环境斗争外,还随时准备粉碎国民党顽固分子发动武装叛乱。进军新疆的胜利,为新生的人民共和国西部边陲,筑起了一道坚不可摧的钢铁屏障。     

Military support and transnational terrorism

Analysing the relationship between the provision of military support and the probability of becoming the target of a terrorist attack, this paper contributes to the literature on the causes of transnational terrorism. We find that deployment of military troops of country X in country Y increases the probability of a terrorist attack on citizens of country X by a terrorist group located in country Y. Exporting weapons to country Y seems to increase the probability of being attacked by the terrorists of this country Y as well. Deploying materials, however, does not seem to significantly influence the probability of attack. Including lagged values for our military support variables ensures that the causality direction is from military support to terrorist attacks. Moreover, these results indicate that while the effect of military deployment on the probability of attack lasts for more than 1 year, the effect is rather short-lived.