Simulating nonhomogeneous poisson processes with proportional intensities

The purpose of this research is to investigate simulation algorithms for nonhomogeneous Poisson processes with proportional intensities. Two algorithmic approaches are studied: inversion and thinning. Motivated by industrial practices, the covariate vector involved in the simulation is permitted to change after every event (or observation). The algorithms are extended to permit the simulation of general nonhomogeneous Poisson processes with possible discontinuities both in baseline intensity and covariate vector. This latter extension can be used to facilitate a wide range of failure situations that can arise with repairable systems. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Local search techniques for the generalized resource constrained project scheduling problem

In this article we address the problem of scheduling a single project network with both precedence and resource constraints through the use of a local search technique. We choose a solution definition which guarantees precedence feasibility, allowing the procedure to focus on overcoming resource infeasibility. We use the 110-problem data set of Patterson to test our procedure. Our results indicate a significant improvement over the best heuristic results reported to date for these problems (Bell and Han [1]). Two major advantages of the local search algorithm are its ability to handle arbitrary objective functions and constraints and its effectiveness over a wide range of problem sizes. We present a problem example with an objective function and resource constraints which include nonlinear and non-continuous components, which are easily considered by the procedure. The results of our algorithm are significantly better than random solutions to the problem. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The Damoclean sword of offensive cyber: Policy uncertainty and collective insecurity

Cyberspace is a new domain of operation, with its own characteristics. Cyber weapons differ qualitatively from kinetic ones: They generate effects by non-kinetic means through information, technology, and networks. Their properties, opportunities, and constraints are comparable to the qualitative difference between conventional and nuclear weapons. New weapons and their target sets in a new domain raise a series of unresolved policy challenges at the domestic, bilateral, and international levels about deterrence, attribution, and response. They also introduce new risks: uncertainty about unintended consequences, expectations of efficacy, and uncertainty about both the target’s and the international community’s response. Cyber operations offer considerable benefits for states to achieve strategic objectives both covertly and overtly. However, without a strategic framework to contain and possibly deter their use, make state and non-state behavior more predictable in the absence of reciprocal norms, and limit their impact, an environment where states face persistent attacks that nonetheless fall below the threshold of armed conflict presents a policy dilemma that reinforces collective insecurity.     

Server scheduling on parallel dedicated machines with fixed job sequences

We consider server scheduling on parallel dedicated machines to minimize the makespan. Each job has a loading operation and a processing operation. The loading operation requires a server that serves all the jobs. Each machine has a given set of jobs to process, and the processing sequence is known and fixed. We design a polynomial‐time algorithm to solve the two‐machine case of the problem. When the number of machines is arbitrary, the problem becomes strongly NP‐hard even if all the jobs have the same processing length or all the loading operations require a unit time. We design two heuristic algorithms to treat the case where all the loading times are unit and analyze their performance.     

Safety in international security: a view point from the practice of accident investigation

While security points to a deliberate harming of humans and/or the environment, safety refers to unintended damage. In this view point, I will analyse how the distinction between safety and security matters in the practice of accident investigation and I will argue that the division between the fields is problematic for the assessment of security-related safety risks. Drawing on the case of the our accident investigation into the downing of flight MH17 above Ukraine in 2014, I highlight key dilemmas the Dutch Safety Board dealt with.     

Resilience in peacebuilding: Contesting uncertainty,ambiguity, and complexity

With the failure of liberal peace strategies in the Global South, resilience has recently become the risk management strategy par excellence in peacebuilding. Since it is not possible to predict when the next crisis will take place, peacebuilders must invest in bottom-up adaptive capacities to cope with external shocks. This article moves away from governmentality accounts of resilience which are overtly deterministic and depoliticizing. Instead, it posits that the uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity associated with resilience mean that we should expect opportunities for contestation and institutional agency. This argument will be illustrated by drawing upon the European Union’s adoption of the resilience approach in its peacebuilding and security policies. The article argues that while uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity constitute the ontological conditions that underpin the rise of resilience in peacebuilding, they are also likely to lead to its potential demise.     

Scheduling with tool changes to minimize total completion time: A study of heuristics and their performance

The machine scheduling literature does not consider the issue of tool change. The parallel literature on tool management addresses this issue but assumes that the change is due only to part mix. In practice, however, a tool change is caused most frequently by tool wear. That is why we consider here the problem of scheduling a set of jobs on a single CNC machine where the cutting tool is subject to wear; our objective is to minimize the total completion time. We first describe the problem and discuss its peculiarities. After briefly reviewing available theoretical results, we then go on to provide a mixed 0–1 linear programming model for the exact solution of the problem; this is useful in solving problem instances with up to 20 jobs and has been used in our computational study. As our main contribution, we next propose a number of heuristic algorithms based on simple dispatch rules and generic search. We then discuss the results of a computational study where the performance of the various heuristics is tested; we note that the well‐known SPT rule remains good when the tool change time is small but deteriorates as this time increases and further that the proposed algorithms promise significant improvement over the SPT rule. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

Confidence coefficient of approximate two-sided confidence intervals for the binomial probability

The confidence coefficient of a two-sided confidence interval for the binomial parameter p is the infimum of the coverage probability of the interval as p ranges between 0 and 1. The confidence coefficients for five different approximate confidence intervals are computed and compared to the confidence coefficient for the two-sided Clopper-Pearson confidence interval. Pratt's approximation method [10] yields virtually the same confidence coefficients as the Clopper-Pearson interval, and is easily computed without resorting to interative methods.     

Waiting time distributions for transient bulk queues with general vehicle dispatching strategies

A numerical approach is presented for determining the waiting time distribution in a transient bulk-arrival, bulk-service queue. Vehicle departures from the queue are governed by a general dispatch strategy that includes holding with a variable release function and vehicle cancellations. The waiting time distribution of a customer (in a group) arriving at a given point in time is calculated by simulating the process in discrete time and determining at each step the probability the customer has left the system. The dispatch strategies require knowing the total length of the queue as well as the position a customer holds in the queue. An exact approach is compared to an accurate approximation which is 50 to 100 times faster. Comparisons are made with other approaches in the context of steady-state systems.     

On the exponentially weighted moving variance

MacGregor and Harris (J Quality Technol 25 (1993) 106–118) proposed the exponentially weighted mean squared deviation (EWMS) and the exponentially weighted moving variance (EWMV) charts as ways of monitoring process variability. These two charts are particularly useful for individual observations where no estimate of variability is available from replicates. However, the control charts derived by using the approximate distributions of the EWMS and EWMV statistics are difficult to interpret in terms of the average run length (ARL). Furthermore, both control charting schemes are biased procedures. In this article, we propose two new control charts by applying a normal approximation to the distributions of the logarithms of the weighted sum of chi squared random variables, which are respectively functions of the EWMS and EWMV statistics. These new control charts are easy to interpret in terms of the ARL. On the basis of the simulation studies, we demonstrate that the proposed charts are superior to the EWMS and EWMV charts and they both are nearly unbiased for the commonly used smoothing constants. We also compare the performance of the proposed charts with that of the change point (CP) CUSUM chart of Acosta‐Mejia (1995). The design of the proposed control charts is discussed. An example is also given to illustrate the applicability of the proposed control charts. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009