An informal framework to aid the analysis and design of military posture

The design of military posture is an exercise in confronting potential enemies’ capabilities within the context of geographic, technological, temporal, political and economic constraints. No formal model is capable of encapsulating the essentials of so complex an environment for closed or simulated analysis, but it is useful to have an informal framework within which to reason interactively within these dimensions.

This paper presents such a scaffolding, patterned on the notion of a military posture as the output of an economic process whose structure reflects important determinants of the characteristics and extents of weaponry and expenditures that are appropriate to the environment within the feasibility set determined by the constraints. The analysis remains at an abstract level, but it does highlight the important shifts toward preparation for littoral warfare, greater reliance on reserve rather than active forces, and necessary changes in missions among military departments.     

THE ROLLBACK OF LIBYA'S CHEMICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM

In 2003, Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi agreed to eliminate his country's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs and long-range Scud missiles under strict verification by U.S. and British experts and international inspectors. This article examines the negotiation and implementation of Libya's WMD rollback, with a primary focus on its chemical weapons program, and draws some lessons for the future. Although the Libyan case was unique in many ways, some aspects have relevance for other countries, including the critical role played by multilateral nonproliferation organizations, the utility of economic sanctions and export controls, the importance of a flexible U.S. disarmament funding mechanism, the value of rotating technical assistance teams in and out of the country that is disarming, and the desirability of remaining politically engaged with a former proliferator after rollback is complete.     

Machine maintenance with workload considerations

Machine maintenance is modeled in the setting of a single‐server queue. Machine deterioration corresponds to slower service rates and failure. This leads to higher congestion and an increase in customer holding costs. The decision‐maker decides when to perform maintenance, which may be done pre‐emptively; before catastrophic failures. Similar to classic maintenance control models, the information available to the decision‐maker includes the state of the server. Unlike classic models, the information also includes the number of customers in queue. Considered are both a repair model and a replacement model. In the repair model, with random replacement times, fixed costs are assumed to be constant in the server state. In the replacement model, both constant and variable fixed costs are considered. It is shown in general that the optimal maintenance policies have switching curve structure that is monotone in the server state. However, the switching curve policies for the repair model are not always monotone in the number of customers in the queue. Numerical examples and two heuristics are also presented. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Colombian Military Thinking and the Fight against the FARC-EP Insurgency, 2002–2014

This article attempts to place in historical perspective the latest effort by Colombia’s military (Colmil) to defeat the now half century old insurgency of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP). It argues that the ‘surge’ initiated under President Álvaro Uribe in 2002 with the assistance of the United States can only be fully analyzed in the context of the Colmil’s intellectual framework for counter-insurgency. Specifically, this article will explain how the protracted engagement with counter-insurgency has shaped the Colmil’s understanding of the nature of the conflict, as well as its attitudes towards its adversary, civil authority and the instrumentality of force. An understanding of the Colmil’s strategic tradition can also help to explain their apprehensions about the ongoing peace negotiations with the FARC-EP.     

The Determinants of Arms Production

This study analyzes the determinants of arms production in 15 countries using annual panel data from 1997 to 2002. The results suggest that real GDP per capita, military expenditures, arms exports, and arms imports are positively related to arms production.     

Development programs for one‐shot systems using multiple‐state design reliability models

Design reliability at the beginning of a product development program is typically low, and development costs can account for a large proportion of total product cost. We consider how to conduct development programs (series of tests and redesigns) for one‐shot systems (which are destroyed at first use or during testing). In rough terms, our aim is to both achieve high final design reliability and spend as little of a fixed budget as possible on development. We employ multiple‐state reliability models. Dynamic programming is used to identify a best test‐and‐redesign strategy and is shown to be presently computationally feasible for at least 5‐state models. Our analysis is flexible enough to allow for the accelerated stress testing needed in the case of ultra‐high reliability requirements, where testing otherwise provides little information on design reliability change. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

境外行政主体制度研究

行政主体理论自行政法成为公法重要组成部分时便成为行政法几个核心理论之一。自《中华人民共和国行政诉讼法》实施以来,行政主体理论研究成为我国行政法理论研究的重点之一。我国关于行政主体的内涵及外延,学术界各抒己见,至今缺乏统一的论断。境外一些行政法理论发达国家和地区的行政主体制度对于我们具有借鉴意义。