Thailand and the Insurgency in the South

The insurgency in southern Thailand has proven to be intractable over the last few years. The insurgents, who comprise several different groups, have largely retained the initiative in a series of relatively unsophisticated operations. Although involving ethnic Malay Muslims – and marked by an increasingly strong Islamist ideology – the insurgency has been predominantly ethnic rather than religious. External jihadist involvement has been minimal at best. The recent coup in Thailand may improve the odds of reaching some form of accommodation with the southern insurgents; but it is likely that the south will remain a continuing security problem for Bangkok.     

Insurgency in amber: ethnic opposition groups in Myanmar

Multiple ethnic insurgencies have existed in Myanmar since independence. The military junta's response has been extremely brutal at the tactical level, but has shown some political astuteness at the strategic level, with a series of ceasefires with most of the ethnic groups. Despite these ceasefires – most of which have resulted in the continued existence of quasi-independent armed groups – other ethnic movements have continued their armed operations. The overall strategic picture is one of stalemate, with the ethnic movements continuing to exist, but with few realistic prospects of expanding their operations.     

基于区间数理论的空战目标威胁评估

针对空战目标威胁评估问题,提出了一种新的基于区间数理论的评估方法。在分析了现有的目标威胁评估方法中距离威胁模型存在不足的基础上,提出了改进的距离威胁模型。给出了区间数特征向量法求解威胁指标权重的计算步骤,建立了基于区间数理论的空战目标威胁评估的数学模型。最后给出了仿真算例,仿真结果表明该方法是合理和有效的。     

The Insurgency Environment in Northeast India

The northeast states of India have faced a series of insurgencies almost since independence. Most insurgent groups have been based on the competing demands of various ethnic groups, with conflicts not only between the insurgents and the government, but also between groups. The combination of anti-government and intercommunal violence shows little sign of ending. Although the Indian government has made progress in dealing with the largest groups, the continued existence of several dozen insurgent movements represents a significant security threat to internal stability in India.     

空投设备气囊缓冲系统的缓冲特性分析与匹配方法

采用解析分析法,根据排气口流量方程和载荷运动方程建立了无量纲的空投设备气囊缓冲过程数学模型,并根据此模型构造了气囊的匹配设计图。讨论了排气口面积、气囊高度、着陆初速度、载荷质量、气囊底面积及排气口开启压力等参数对气囊缓冲性能的影响,提出了空投设备气囊缓冲系统的参数匹配设计方法,为空投设备气囊缓冲系统的匹配设计提供了技术支持。     

Optimal selection with alternative information

This article examines the problem of optimally selecting from several unknown rewards when there are given alternative, costly sources of information. The optimal rule, indicating the information to be purchased and the reward to be selected, is specified as a function of the decision maker's prior probabilities regarding the value of each alternative. The rule is surprisingly complex, balancing prior beliefs, the “informativeness” of the relevant information system, and the cost of acquiring information.     

The asymptotic joint distribution of the state occupancy times in an alternating renewal process

An alternating renewal process starts at time zero and visits states 1,2,…,r, 1,2, …,r 1,2, …,r, … in sucession. The time spent in state i during any cycle has cumulative distribution function F_i, and the sojourn times in each state are mutually independent, positive and nondegenerate random variables. In the fixed time interval [0,T], let U_i(T) denote the total amount of time spent in state i. In this note, a central limit theorem is proved for the random vector (U_i(T), 1 ≤ i ≤ r) (properly normed and centered) as T → ∞.     

Optimal replacement for fault-tolerant systems

We consider the optimal replacement problem for a fault tolerant system comprised of N components. The components are distingushable, and the state of the system is given by knowing exactly which components are operationl and which have failed. The individual component failure rates depend on the state of the entire system. We assume that the rate at which the system produces income decreases as the system deteriorates and the system replacement cost rises. Individual components cannot be replaced. We give a greedy-type algorithm that produces the replacement policy that maximizes the long-run net system income per unit time.