Min/max bounds for dynamic network flows

This paper presents an algorithm for determining the upper and lower bounds for arc flows in a maximal dynamic flow solution. The procedure is basically an extended application of the Ford-Fulkerson dynamic flow algorithm which also solves the minimal cost flow problem. A simple example is included. The presence of bounded optimal are flows entertains the notion that one can pick a particular solution which is preferable by secondary criteria.     

Armor configurations via dynamic programming

The problem of selecting materials, their thicknesses and order for armor designed for the defeat of shaped charge threats, has been formulated as a constrained optimization problem. The mathematical model provides an optimal order and thickness of each layer of material such that the resulting armor configuration will be of minimum mass per unit area subject to constraints on total thickness and shaped charge jet tip exit velocity.     

Confidence bounds and propagation of uncertainties in system availability and reliability computations

This paper develops bounds on the uncertainties in system availabilities or reliabilities which have been computed from structural (series, parallel, etc.) relations among uncertain subsystem availabilities or reliabilities. It is assumed that the highly available (reliable) subsystems have been tested or simulated to determine their unavailabilities (unreliabilities) to within some small percentages of uncertainty. It is shown that series, parallel and r out of n structures which are nominally highly available will have unavailability uncertainties whose percentages errors are of the same order as the subsystem uncertainties. Thus overall system analysis errors, even for large systems, are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainties in the component probabilities. Both systematic (bias type) uncertainties and independent random uncertainties are considered.     

A mixed optimization technique for the generalized machine replacement problem

A mixed optimization technique for optimal machine replacement is presented which allows much more flexibility than previous models. Optimal purchase, maintenance and sale of a given machine between any two given points in time is treated as a subproblem, which one may choose to solve via control theory, dynamic programming, or practical engineering considerations. (A control theory formulation is used in the paper as an illustration.) These subproblem solutions are then incorporated into a Wagner-Whitin formulation for solution of the full problem. The technique is particularly useful for problems with such asymmetries as an existing initial machine or uneven technological change. A simple numerical example is solved in the Appendix.     

Systems analysis and planning-programming-budgeting systems (PPBS) for defense decision making

Systems analysis office titles have permeated both government and business organization charts in recent years. Systems analysis as a discipline, however, even though increasingly accepted, has eluded precise definition. For the most part, it has been loosely described as “quantitative common sense” and “the general application of the scientific method.” Emphasis is placed upon the application of eclectic disciplines to a wide variety of problems. Concepts and techniques have been drawn heavily from economics, mathematics, and political science. In the Department of Defense, systems analysis has been used extensively in the evaluation of weapon systems during the last 9 years. During the 1960's, it provided the underlying concepts for the control system PPBS (Planning-Programming-Budgeting System). This article traces the origins of systems analysis within the Department of Defense and describes and analyzes the application of the technique. Although there always exists disagreement, it is generally accepted that the origin of systems analysis coincided with the inception of R. S. McNamara's administration of the Department of Defense. McNamara organized the Systems Analysis office under Mr. Charles Hitch, who had previously developed many basic systems analysis concepts at project RAND. From Hitch's basic concepts, the approach became increasingly sophisticated in evaluating complex weapons systems. Coincidently, the organizational procedures for implementing systems analysis also evolved. Under the current Department of Defense administration, the new organizational procedures emerging are contrasted with the old.     

Optimal multicommodity network flows with resource allocation

The problem of determining multicommodity flows over a capacitated network subject to resource constraints may be solved by linear programming; however, the number of potential vectors in most applications is such that the standard arc-chain formulation becomes impractical. This paper describes an approach—an extension of the column generation technique used in the multicommodity network flow problem—that simultaneously considers network chain selection and resource allocation, thus making the problem both manageable and optimal. The flow attained is constrained by resource availability and network capacity. A minimum-cost formulation is described and an extension to permit the substitution of resources is developed. Computational experience with the model is discussed.     

On the reliability,availability and bayes confidence intervals for multicomponent systems

The problem of computing reliability and availability and their associated confidence limits for multi-component systems has appeared often in the literature. This problem arises where some or all of the component reliabilities and availabilities are statistical estimates (random variables) from test and other data. The problem of computing confidence limits has generally been considered difficult and treated only on a case-by-case basis. This paper deals with Bayes confidence limits on reliability and availability for a more general class of systems than previously considered including, as special cases, series-parallel and standby systems applications. The posterior distributions obtained are exact in theory and their numerical evaluation is limited only by computing resources, data representation and round-off in calculations. This paper collects and generalizes previous results of the authors and others. The methods presented in this paper apply both to reliability and availability analysis. The conceptual development requires only that system reliability or availability be probabilities defined in terms acceptable for a particular application. The emphasis is on Bayes Analysis and the determination of the posterior distribution functions. Having these, the calculation of point estimates and confidence limits is routine. This paper includes several examples of estimating system reliability and confidence limits based on observed component test data. Also included is an example of the numerical procedure for computing Bayes confidence limits for the reliability of a system consisting of N failure independent components connected in series. Both an exact and a new approximate numerical procedure for computing point and interval estimates of reliability are presented. A comparison is made of the results obtained from the two procedures. It is shown that the approximation is entirely sufficient for most reliability engineering analysis.     

Optimal replacement of parts having observable correlated stages of deterioration

A single component system is assumed to progress through a finite number of increasingly bad levels of deterioration. The system with level i (0 ≤ i ≤ n) starts in state 0 when new, and is definitely replaced upon reaching the worthless state n. It is assumed that the transition times are directly monitored and the admissible class of strategies allows substitution of a new component only at such transition times. The durations in various deterioration levels are dependent random variables with exponential marginal distributions and a particularly convenient joint distribution. Strategies are chosen to maximize the average rewards per unit time. For some reward functions (with the reward rate depending on the state and the duration in this state) the knowledge of previous state duration provides useful information about the rate of deterioration.