Adaptive forecasting of the size of a work force subject to random withdrawals

Adaptive forecasting procedures are developed for predicting the size of a work force which is subject to random withdrawals. The procedures are illustrated using Marine Corps data in which four stages of service for incoming cohorts are distinguished. Using these data, three forecasting procedures—conditional maximum likelihood estimation of prediction intervals; tolerance intervals; and Bayes prediction intervals—are compared.     

A note on the relationship between correlation and circular error probability (CEP)

This note investigates the effects of ignoring correlation (p) as is sometimes done when estimating or placing confidence intervals on circular error probability (CEP). It is shown that better estimates of CEP can be made if the axis is rotated [5] so that the estimate of p is zero. It is also shown that ignoring variability in estimating correlation can affect the confidence intervals on CEP or the placing of a lower bound on the probability content of a circle.     

Optimum sequential search with discrete locations and random acceptance errors

Much work has been done in search theory; however, very little effort has occurred where an object's presence at a location can be accepted when no object is present there. The case analyzed is of this type. The number of locations is finite, a single object is stationary at one location, and only one location is observed each step of the search. The object's location has a known prior probability distribution. Also known are the conditional probability of acceptance given the object's absence (small) and the conditional probability of rejection given the object's presence (not too large); these Probabilities remain fixed for all searching and locations. The class of sequential search policies which terminate the search at the first acceptance is assumed. A single two-part optimization criterion is considered. The search sequence is found which (i) minimizes the probability of obtaining n rejections in the first n steps for all n, and (ii) maximizes the probability that the first acceptance occurs within the first n steps and occurs at the object's location for all n. The optimum sequential search policy specifies that the next location observed is one with the largest posterior probability of the object's presence (evaluated after each step from Bayes Rule) and that the object is at the first location where acceptance occurs. Placement at the first acceptance seems appropriate when the conditional probability of acceptance given the object's absence is sufficiently small. Search always terminates (with probability one). Optimum truncated sequential policies are also considered. Methods are given for evaluating some pertinent properties and for investigating the possibility that no object occurs at any location.     

Least-absolute-value estimators for one-way and two-way tables

This paper concerns itself with the problem of estimating the parameters of one-way and two-way classification models by minimization of the sum of the absolute deviations of the regression function from the observed points. The one-way model reduces to obtaining a set of medians from which optimal parameters can be obtained by simple arithmetic manipulations. The two-way model is transformed into a specially structured linear programming problem, and two algorithms are presented to solve this problem. The occurrence of alternative optimal solutions in both models is discussed, and numerical examples are presented.     

A note on the limitations of goal programming as observed in resource allocation for marine environmental protection

After first formulating the problem of the Marine Environmental Protection program of the Coast Guard as a multiple-objective linear program, we investigate the applicability and limitations of goal programming. We point out how the preemptive goal-programming approach is incompatible with utility preferences. Then we observe the tendency of optimal solutions for standard linear goal programs to occur at extreme points. We also note problems of more general approaches, such as dealing with additively separable approximations to preferences.     

A simulated port facility in a theatre of operations

A hypothetical port facility in a theatre of operations is modeled and coded in a special purpose simulation language, for the purpose of conducting simulation experiments on a digital computer. The experiments are conducted to investigate the resource requirements necessary for the reception, discharge, and clearance of supplies at the port. Queue lengths, waiting times, facility utilizations, temporary storage levels, and ship turn-around times are analyzed as functions of transportation and cargo handling resources, using response surface methodology. The resulting response surfaces are revealing in regard to the sensitivity of port operations to transportation resource levels and the characteristics of the port facility's load factor. Two specific conclusions of significant value are derived. First, the simulation experiments clearly show that the standard procedures for determining discharge and clearance capacities take insufficient account of the effects of variability. Second, the response surfaces for ship turn-around times and temporary storage levels indicate that an extremely steep gradient exists as a function of troop levels.     

Markov chain analyses of multiprogrammed computer systems

Most operating systems for large computing facilities involve service disciplines which base, to some extent, the sequencing of object program executions on the amount of running time they require. It is the object of this paper to study mathematical models of such service disciplines applicable to both batch and time-shared processing systems. In particular, Markov queueing models are defined and analyzed for round-robin and foreground-background service disciplines. With the round-robin discipline, the service facility processes each program or job for a maximum of q seconds; if the program's service is completed during this quantum, it leaves the system, otherwise it returns to the end of the waiting line to await another quantum of service. With the foreground-background discipline each new arrival joins the end of the foreground queue and awaits a single quantum of service. If it requires more it is subsequently placed at the end of the background queue which is allocated service only when the foreground queue is empty. The analysis focuses on the efficiency of the above systems by assuming a swap or set-up time (overhead cost) associated with the switching of programs on and off the processor. The analysis leads to generating functions for the equilibrium queue length probabilities, the moments of this latter distribution, and measures of mean waiting times. The paper concludes with a discussion of the results along with several examples.