The Rebirth of Insurgency in Peru

Peru has battled two major insurgent movements since 1980. Around 25,000 Peruvians have died in this war between the government against the Shining Path and the MRTA. The Peruvian military has been incapable of achieving total victory after several major operations and the capture of just about every major rebel leader. Even worse, after a few years of almost no activity, Shining Path seems to be re-emerging. The last remaining members of this insurgent group have made alliances with foreign terrorist groups, used drug traffic to fund their fight and sweet talked people who are very disappointed and mad at the current Toledo administration, to gain more supporters. Major changes have to occur to prevent both groups from becoming threats to national security and society as a whole, taking the country back to times when around half of the nation was declared to be under terrorist control. The defense budget must be increased to open new bases, buy new equipment and train soldiers better to fight the insurgents more effectively. At the same time, major social changes need to occur; Toledo and his government must gain the trust and sympathy of Peruvians again by working for and with them.     

Book reviews

Norman Cigar, Genocide in Bosnia: The Policy of “Ethnic Cleansing”. College Station, Texas: Texas A&M University Press, 1995. Pp.xiv + 247; app., map, notes, cartoon.

Maria Jose Moyano, Argentina's Lost Patrol: Armed Struggle, 1969–1979. New Haven: Connecticut Yale University Press, 1995. Pp.xiii + 226, biblio., abbreviations, 10 figures, 1 map, tables, index; $25/£16.95. ISBN 0–300–01622–6.

Donald E. Schulz and Deborah Sundloff Schulz, The United States, Honduras, and the Crisis in Central America, Westview Thematic Studies in Latin America, Boulder, Co: Westview, 1994. Pp.368, map, figure, select biblio., abbreviations, index. $52.50/£37.50; (cloth) $17.95/£11.95 (paper). ISBN 0–8133–1324–4 and 1323–6.

Joseph H. Alexander and Merrill L. Bartlett, Sea Soldiers in the Cold War: Amphibious Warfare 1945–1991. Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1995. Pp.iii + 178, 1 map, 29 illus, biblio, index. $32.95. ISBN

Gary P. Cox, The Halt in the Mud: French Strategic Planning from Waterloo to Sedan. Westview Press, 1994. Pp.258, maps, notes, biblio, index. £33.50. ISBN 0–133–1536–0.     

Ho Chi Minh and the origins of the Vietnamese doctrine of guerrilla tactics

In a very important sense, the Vietnamese military history of the communist era began in 1941, when Ho Chi Minh prepared ‘Guerrilla Tactics’ (Cach Danh Du Kich).1 ?1. Ministry of Defense Center for the Military Encyclopedia Ministry of Defense Center for the Military Encyclopedia. 1996. Tu Dien Bach Hoa Quan Su Vietnam, Hanoi: People's Army Publishing Company.  [Google Scholar], Tu Dien Bach Hoa Quan Su Vietnam, 69. The publication of this essay, which was a manual on the tactics, techniques, and procedures of guerrilla warfare, preceded the founding of the first armed propaganda unit (Tuyen Truyen Doi Vo Trang) on 22 December 1944, which later became the People's Army of Vietnam (PAVN, Quan Doi Nhan Dan); as well as the revolutionary writings of Truong Chinh (1946–1947) and Vo Nguyen Giap (1959). The fact that ‘Tactics’ was published by the Viet Minh reinforces the claim made by the PAVN that it was the first authoritative Vietnamese writing on this important subject.     

It's all the rage: why mechanization doesn't explain COIN outcomes

A recent article, ‘Rage Against the Machines’, does a disservice to the debate over what explains counterinsurgency (COIN) success. While it establishes a negative correlation between the diffusion of military mechanization in the state system and COIN success, its theoretical argument does not hold up under close scrutiny and its micro-case comparison of two units in Iraq during 2003–2004 ignores obvious counter-examples and factors that influence COIN success, such as leadership. A deeper inquiry would have revealed that there is much more to COIN success than simply not having access to vehicles.     

Whatever happened to South America's splendid little wars?

South America has gained international media attention due to its ongoing arms race, with politicians and analysts warning about the possibility of war. Nevertheless, since the Chaco War in the 1930s, the region has seldom faced major inter-state wars, all of which have been short-lived and with relatively few casualties. This article will discuss in greater detail the ongoing arms race in South America, portraying it as a race ‘of levels’, with not all countries carrying out massive weaponry purchases. Finally, I will discuss regional geopolitics, geosecurity and integration as part of an analysis regarding the unlikelihood of war.     

Life distribution analysis based on Lévy subordinators for degradation with random jumps

For a component or a system subject to stochastic degradation with sporadic jumps that occur at random times and have random sizes, we propose to model the cumulative degradation with random jumps using a single stochastic process based on the characteristics of Lévy subordinators, the class of nondecreasing Lévy processes. Based on the inverse Fourier transform, we derive a new closed‐form reliability function and probability density function for lifetime, represented by Lévy measures. The reliability function derived using the traditional convolution approach for common stochastic models such as gamma degradation process with random jumps, is revealed to be a special case of our general model. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate that our model performs well for different applications, when compared with the traditional convolution method. More importantly, it is a general and useful tool for life distribution analysis of stochastic degradation with random jumps in multidimensional cases. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 483–492, 2015     

Estimated UK employment dependent on ministry of defence expenditure and defence exports

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has published estimates of the number of average full‐time UK industry employees dependent on MOD expenditure and defence exports for a number of years. This paper provides the outcome of a recent review of the process used. The method of deriving MOD and defence export final demand vectors, and calculating from these estimates of direct employment (i.e. that in supplying companies) and indirect employment (i.e. that incurred through the supply chain) are described. Difficulties with the data are explored. Alternative approaches, methods used in other countries and challenges posed by changing MOD administrative systems are briefly discussed.     

Ridge regression analysis of the defence‐growth tradeoff in the United States

An examination of past analyses suggests that today's sailors may be less responsive to compensation changes than previous generations. Such a change could make recruiting and retaining high‐quality sailors more difficult. However, variation in researchers' decisions over time may simply have created the appearance of such a change. Our results suggest there is little variation in the pay elasticity over time. In contrast, the different reduced‐form models we use to measure this relationship can explain most of the variation in the literature. Therefore, the evidence suggests that while sailors may have changed over time, their response to compensation has not.