Utility assessment procedures for polynomial-exponential functions

This article develops a methodology for testing constant exchange risk properties and identifying an appropriate form for a decision maker's utility function. These risk properties characterize six different utility functions which are sums of products of polynomials and exponential functions. Such functional forms are commonly used in decision analysis applications. The practical advantage of this methodology is that these constant exchange risk properties eliminate the usual arbitrariness in the selection of a parametric utility function and often reduce the data requirements for subsequent estimation. The procedure is straightforward to apply. The decision maker need only provide certainty equivalents for two-outcome gambles and determine the more-preferred gamble in paired comparisons. The technical details of the procedure can be handled by interactive computer software.     

A simulation study of the efficiency of empirical Bayes' estimators of multiple correlated probability vectors

Empirical Bayes' methods had been used by Brier, Zacks, and Marlow [1] for estimating performance characteristic vectors of success probabilities. The problem is that of estimating k-dimensional success probabilities of dependent binomial random variables, which are highly correlated. The present study reinforces the results of the previous one by showing, via simulations, that the relative efficiency of the empirical Bayes estimators, compared to the Stein-type and to the maximum-likelihood ones, is very high. This holds even if the success proportions are based on a small number of trials. We study the case of equicorrelation structure with positive correlations.     

An approach for solving discrete alternative multiple criteria problems involving ordinal criteria

The existence of ordinal criteria is a factor that complicates multiple criteria problems. In this article we develop an approach for the problem of choosing among discrete alternatives assuming that criteria are ordinal. The approach requires pairwise comparisons of alternatives by the decision maker. Based on these comparisons, presumably inferior alternatives are eliminated. Experience on randomly generated problems indicates that the approach usually chooses one of the most preferred alternatives and requires a small number of pairwise comparisons.     

The class of mifra lifetimes and its relation to other classes

In a previous paper, the authors have introduced a class of multivariate lifetimes (MIFRA) which generalize the univariate lifetimes with increasing failure rate average (IFRA). They have also shown that this class satisfies many fundamental properties. In this paper it is shown that other concepts of multivariate IFRA do not satisfy all of these properties. Relationships between MIFRA and these other concepts are given. Finally, positive dependence implications with respect to these classes are also discussed.     

Book reviews

Military Helicopters. By E. J. Everett‐Heath, G. M. Moss, A. W. Mowat and K. E. Reid. Brassey's, London (1990), ISBN 0–08–037341–0 (hardcover), ISBN 0–08–036716‐X (flexicover), £22.50 (hardcover), £12.95 (flexicover)

The Killing Ground: the British Army, the Western Front and the Emergence of Modern Warfare 1900–1918. By Tim Travers. Unwin‐Hyman, London (1990), ISBN 0–04–4457367, £11.95

The Influence of S. L. A. Marshall on the United States Army. By Major F. D. G. Williams. TRADOC Historical Monograph Series, Fort Monroe, VA (1990)     

Lower confidence limits for the impact probability within a circle in the normal case

Lower confidence limits are derived for the impact probability within a circle of fixed radius. The bivariate normal distribution with zero means, unequal variances, and zero correlation is the probability model for impacts. A new representation of the impact probability function is offered. This presentation is valid also for the dependent case, where the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix replace the variances. When the ratio of variances is known the lower confidence limits are uniformly most accurate (UMA). A few alternative approaches are compared by simulation when the ratio of variances is unknown.     

Order-preserving allocation of jobs to two machines

In this paper, we consider the problem of minimizing the mean flow time of jobs to be processed on two machines. The jobs have a predetermined order, perhaps reflecting the order of arrival, and each job has a known processing time. We wish to assign the jobs to machines so as to minimize the mean flow time, with the constraint that the original order must be preserved within the subset of jobs assigned to each machine. An efficient algorithm based on dynamic programming is developed.     

Alternate methods of project scheduling with limited resources

The applicability of critical path scheduling is limited by the inability of the algorithm to cope with conflicting resource demands. This paper is an assessment of the effectiveness of many of the heuristic extensions to the critical path method which resolve the conflicts that develop between the resources demanded by an activity and those available. These heuristic rules are evaluated on their ability to solve a large multiproject scheduling problem.     

Toward optimal bidding strategies

In this paper we investigate a form of rational behavior in response to an oligopoly pricing problem where only one buyer is involved. We investigate the problem from the standpoint of the seller who wants to maximize his gain from the transaction. In particular, we deal with the problem of one seller's response to an invitation to submit a sealed (i. e., noncooperative) bid to a government or other dominant purchasing agency for supplying a specified bundle of goods and services for which either (1) no other demand exists, or (2) the terms or quantities involved cannot, at least in the short run, be obtained from another source. Although treated from a normative standpoint, i. e., what bid the supplier should make, the paper also has implications for the buyer's behavior and oligopoly-monopsony pricing in a more general sense.     

A manpower planning/capital budgeting model (MAPCAB)

A deterministic resource allocation model is developed to optimize defense effectiveness subject to budget, manpower, and risk constraints. The model consists of two major submodels connected by a heuristic. The first is a mathematical program which optimizes the multiperiod weapon mix subject to the constraint set. The second is a manpower supply model based on a transition matrix in which individual transitions are functions of personnel related budgets and historical transition rates. The heuristic marries the submodels through an iterative process leading to improved solutions. An example is provided which demonstrates how systems are undercosted and overprocured if manpower supply is not properly reflected relative to manpower demand.