Ethnic targeting: A bad idea whose time has come

Wm. Roger Louis, Imperialism at Bay 1941–1945. The United States and the decolonization of the British Empire. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1977. Pp. xvi + 595;£12.50.

Christopher Thorne, Allies of a Kind. The United States, Britain and the war against Japan, 1941–1945. London: Hamish Hamilton, 1978. Pp. xxii + 772; £15.00.

Michael Howard, editor, Restraints on War: Studies in the Limitation of Armed Conflict Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1979. Pp. viii + 173; £6.50.

Julian Lider, The Political and Military Laws of War: an Analysis of Marxist‐Leninist Concepts. Farnborough, Hants: Saxon House, 1979. Pp. vii + 266; £12.50.

Klaus‐Jürgen Müller and Eckardt Opitz (editors), Militär und Militarismus in der Weimarer Republik. Düsseldorf: Droste Verlag, 1978. Pp. 304; n.p.

Nicholas Bethell, The Palestine Triangle: The Struggle Between the British, the Jews and the Arabs 1935–1948. London: Steinmatsky's Agency Ltd. in association with Andre Deutsch, 1919. Pp. 384; £7.95.

Sir Maurice Dean, The Royal Air Force and Two World Wars. London: Cassell, 1979. Pp. 349; £8.95.

Wilfred Jay Holmes, Double‐Edged Secrets. Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1979. Pp. 218, n.p.

S. G. Gorshkov, The Sea Power of the State. Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1979. Pp. 290; £15.00.

Kirk, Grayson and Wessell, N.H. eds., The Soviet Threat: Myths and Realities. New York and London: Praeger, 1978. Pp. 182; £12.00.

Kenneth E. Boulding, Stable Peace. Austin and London: University of Texas Press, 1978. Pp. 155;£2.80.

Kenneth E. Boulding (ed.), Peace and the War Industry. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, and Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1973. Pp. vii + 213; £2.75.     

Analyzing Taliban taranas (chants): an effective Afghan propaganda artifact

This article describes and analyzes a little understood Afghan Taliban propaganda tool: chants or taranas . These melodic refrains effectively use historical narratives, symbology, and iconic portraits. The chants are engendered in emotions of sorrow, pride, desperation, hope, and complaints to mobilize and convince the Afghan population of the Taliban's worldview. The chants represent culturally relevant and simple messages that are communicated in a narrative and poetic form that is familiar to and resonates with the local people. They are virtually impossible for the United States and NATO to counter because of Western sensitivities concerning religious themes that dominate the Taliban narrative space, not to mention the lack of Western linguistic capabilities, including the understanding and mastering the poetic nature of local dialects.     

Population-centric counterinsurgency and the movement of peoples

The theory of population-centric counterinsurgency rests upon the untenable premise that the population within a theater of operations is fixed in place. By showing that people tend to move away from contested rural areas towards the relative safety and prosperity of counterinsurgent-controlled areas, this article demonstrates that this crucial premise is empirically false. Furthermore, a theory of counterinsurgent resource deployment, population movement, and incumbent strategic ineffectiveness is presented. Ultimately, the application of counterinsurgency resources actually dislocates the population from their place of residence and causes them to move into cities. When the urban areas' ability to absorb newcomers is overwhelmed, localized negative externalities emerge and can give rise to crime and insecurity. Such increased insecurity then creates an incentive for the counterinsurgency to retrench its resource use into the cities. As more physical territory is conceded to the insurgency, the relative strategic effectiveness of the counterinsurgency declines.     

The Cyprus puzzle and the Greek - Turkish arms race: Forecasting developments using genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps

The scope of this paper is to forecast the extent to which a settlement of the Cyprus issue may be possible given the decisions taken during the Copenhagen EU summit. It aims, in addition, at investigating the possibilities of improvement in Greek-Turkish relations which may lead, in turn, to reducing the arms race between the two countries. The paper uses a Genetically Evolved Certainty Neuron Fuzzy Cognitive Map algorithm to consider a number of scenarios examining the possible reactions of all sides involved in the Cyprus issue, namely Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, the Turkish-Cypriot community and the international environment. All simulation exercises suggest that the Greek and the Cypriot side should not necessarily rely on the decisions taken during the Copenhagen summit conference. The forecasts point out, in addition, that the optimism of the Greek government concerning the outlook of its relations with Turkey, and a subsequent reduction of the arms race against it, is far from being justified.     

CHOOSING GENOCIDE: ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES ON THE DISTURBING RATIONALITY OF RACE MURDER

An economic theory of genocide is presented with application to Rwanda‐1994. The theory considers ‘macro’ conditions under which an authority group chooses genocide and ‘micro’ conditions that facilitate the spread of genocide. From the macro perspective, a bargaining model highlights four rational explanations for an authority’s choice of genocide: prevention of loss of power, indivisibility, elimination of a persistent rival, and political bias. From the micro perspective, an evolutionary game model shows how supporters of genocide gain the upper hand in group dynamics over resisters and bystanders. The theory and application suggest that the conditions for genocide are not exceptional.