The proper balancing of repair and preventive maintenance activities in the determination of coordinated shipboard allowance lists

The determination as to the cost-effective number of spares for given types of items or equipment to be carried on board various types of ships is studied. This spare pool, known as the ship's COSAL, must provide prespecified levels of protection against stockouts for all uses of that item on board the given ship. This article derives and illustrates the methodology for optimally trading off the reduction in the ship's COSAL that can be gained by improving repair/resupply capabilities or by lowering the failure rate of the equipment through more or different types of preventive maintenance. A flexible class of preventive maintenance/repair response functions to cost is studied which are nonlinear and exhibit realistic diminishing returns. Two different types of assumptions are possible regarding the interdependencies of the resupply times across different ship types. A tractable budget allocation method is presented which can be used in a multiitem, multiship, multiechelon repair environment where there is one budget to cover all spares, all repair/resupply, and preventive maintenance activities. The technique incorporates different criticalities of shortages by type of ship and item. It can be used either in a budget building mode or a budget execution mode.     

On estimating the scale parameter of the exponential distribution with a known linear relation between the location and the scale parameter

In this article we study the estimation of the average excess life θ in a two-parameter exponential distribution with a known linear relationship between α (the minimum life) and θ of the form α = aθ, where a is known and positive. A comparison of the efficiencies of estimators which are linear combinations of the smallest sample value and the sample sum of deviations from the smallest sample value and the maximum likelihood estimators is made for various sample sizes and different values of a. It is shown that these estimators are dominated in the risk by the minimum-risk scale equivariant estimator based on sufficient statistics. A class of Bayes estimators for inverted gamma priors is constructed and shown to include a minimum-risk scale equivariant estimator in it. All the members of this class can be computed easily.     

A note on a difficulty inherent in estimating reliability from stress–strength relationships

This note calls attention to a difficulty which arises frequently in the application of stress-strength methods in reliability theory. This difficulty has led to unanticipated catastrophic failures in a number of applications.     

Armed services recruiting research: Issues,findings, and needs

Manning the nation's armed services will continue to be a crucial issue for the remainder of the 1980s. With the projected growth of the services during this decade, the downturn in the 17–21-year-old male population, and the possible upturn in the economy, the ability of the services to meet their respective quality and quantity recruiting goals becomes of central concern. The accurate estimation of the supply for various types of recruits becomes especially important when one views the nearly $1 billion budgeted annually for recruiting and the impact that any military pay raises can have on the DOD's manpower costs of over $40 billion annually. In addition, perceived difficulties in recruiting can impact on weapon systems design decisions, authorized manning levels, and exacerbate the debate concerning the draft; hence, it is clear that few issues today warrant more attention than improving the efficiency and effectiveness of military recruiting. This article provides an introduction and review of some of the key issues involved in modeling and estimating the supply of military recruits. It summarizes and compares the findings of selected econometric models, all of which are based on enlistment experience since the introduction of the All-Volunteer Force in 1973. It also presents some new insights and directions for research dealing with simultaneity, validation, generation of rigorous confidence intervals, and data base selection. It concludes by listing some of the research needs to be addressed in the future.     

Some branch-and-bound procedures for fixed-cost transportation problems

In this article we present three properties that will improve the performance of branch-and-bound algorithms for fixed-cost transportation problems. By applying Lagrangian relaxation we show that one can develop stronger up and down penalties than those traditionally used and also develop a strengthened penalty for nonbasic variables. We also show that it is possible to “look ahead” of a particular node and determine the solution at the next node without actually calculating it. We present computational evidence by comparing our developments with existing procedures.     

An efficient heuristic for large set covering problems

A heuristic solution procedure for set covering is presented that works well for large, relatively dense problems. In addition, a confidence interval is established about the unknown global optimum. Results are presented for 30 large randomly generated problems.     

Limit laws in the best of 2n - 1 bernoulli trials

A series of independent Bernoulli trials is considered in which either an outcome of type A or type B occurs at each trial. The series terminates when n outcomes of one type have occurred. Two observable random variables of interest are the total number of outcomes in the series and the number of outcomes of the “losing kind.” Two methods of approximation of the expectations of these random variables for large n are obtained and compared. The limiting distribution of the number of outcomes of the “losing kind” is considered when a beta distribution is assigned to p.     

The two-on-one stochastic duel

The one-on-one stochastic duel is extended to the general two-on-one duel for the first time. The state equations, win probabilities, mean value, and variance functions are derived. The case where one side has Erlang (2) firing times and the other is negative exponential is compared with the corresponding “Stochastic Lanchester” and Lanchester models to demonstrate their nonequivalence.     

Minimizing the sum of absolute lateness in single-machine and multimachine scheduling

Kanet addressed the problem of scheduling n jobs on one machine so as to minimize the sum of absolute lateness under a restrictive assumption on their common due date. This article extends the results to the problem of scheduling n jobs on m parallel identical processors in order to minimize the sum of absolute lateness. Also, a heuristic algorithm for a more general version with no restriction on the common due date, for the problem of n-job single-machine scheduling is presented and its performance is reported.     

An acceptance life test for high-reliability products

This article introduces a replacement life-test procedure for the exponential failure rate: Failure-free operation of a unit for at least t_k consecutive time units is designated a “success”; the acceptance test is passed if and only if the first success is encountered before k unit failures have been recorded. Test plans are presented and the test is compared with the usual time-truncated test and to the truncated sequential probability ratio test. It is shown that this new test has smaller expected test time than the time truncated test when the true failure rate is small relative to the null hypothesized failure rate. Consistency and unbiasedness are proved and methods for making inferences on failure rate are described.