Bounds on optimal cost for a replacement problem with partial observations

This paper characterizes the structure of optimal strategies for a replacement problem for two special cases of observation quality. It is shown that when the state of the system is either completely observed or completely unobserved at every decision epoch by the controller, reasonable assumptions are sufficient for the existence of optimal replacement strategies composed of policies having a generalized, control-limit form. These structural results are of particular interest since the optimal cost functions for the two special cases represent bounds on the optimal cost function for the general partially observed case, significant computational simplification can result for the two special cases due to their optimal strategy structure, and optimal strategies possessing a control-limit structure do not necessarily exist for the general partially observed case.     

Estimating the economic impact of the 1973 Navy base closing: Models,tests, and an ex post evaluation of the forecasting performance

In 1973 the Defense Department made plans to close many Navy bases in the United States. Hardest hit was Rhode Island which would suffer a loss of 45.61% of the total cutback of 42,812 jobs. This paper describes two models which were built to forecast the severity of the economic impact in Rhode Island: one used the reduced form equation approach, and the other the simultaneous equations system approach. Tests on multicollinearity, specification, and serial correlation were conducted. An ex post evaluation of these two models' performance in forecasting then concludes the paper.     

The M/G/1 queue with instantaneous bernoulli feedback

In this paper we are concerned with several random processes that occur in M/G/1 queues with instantaneous feedback in which the feedback decision process is a Bernoulli process. Queue length processes embedded at various times are studied. It is shown that these do not all have the same asymptotic distribution, and that in general none of the output, input, or feedback processes is renewal. These results have implications in the application of certain decomposition results to queueing networks.     

A procedure for generating time-dependent arrivals for queueing simulations

This paper presents a method for modeling cyclic inputs to a congested system in a discrete event digital simulation. Specifically, we express the mean of the interarrival time conditional on the last arrival as a linear combination of harmonic components whose coefficients can be determined by stepwise regression. We also assume that the conditional interarrival time normalized by its corresponding mean follows a distribution that is independent of time. The result can, in turn, be used to generate the desired input for a simulation, An example based on a set of actual data is used to illustrate the process of parameter estimation for the model.     

Discounted production scheduling and employment smoothing

We consider the problem of minimizing the sum of production, employment smoothing, and inventory costs over a finite number of time periods where demands are known. The fundamental difference between our model and that treated in [1] is that here we permit the smoothing cost to be nonstationary, thereby admitting a model with discounting. We show that the values of the instrumental variables are nondecreasing in time when demands are nondecreasing. We also derive some asymptotic properties of optimal policies.     

Optimal policies under the shortage probability criterion for an inventory model with unknown dependent demands

The principal innovation in this paper is the consideration of a new objective function for inventory models which we call the shortage probability criterion. Under this criterion we seek to minimize the total expected discounted cost of ordering subject to the probability that the stock level at the end of the period being less than some fixed quantity not exceed some prescribed number. For three different models we show that the minimum order policy is optimal. This result is then applied to a particular inventory model in which the demand distribution is not completely known. A Bayesian procedure is discussed for obtaining optimal policies.     

Multi-class inventory models with demand a function of inventory level

This paper considers the problem of maintaining an inventory of an item which can deteriorate and become useless. A periodic review procedure is used and new items ordered may experience a time lag in delivery. Items are considered to deteriorate through one or two states before becoming useless. Thus the deterioration process in each period plays the role of the usual demand process and is a function of the inventory level at the beginning of each period. For the case of no time lag in delivery, one stage deterioration, and either binomial or uniform deterioration, optimal ordering policies are obtained for the n-period dynamic model with the standard cost structure. (For the shortage probability criterion see the other paper by Iglehart and Jaquette, in this issue.) These policies are of the single critical number type. For more complicated models suboptimal policies of this same type are found.     

Product moments of order statistics from the doubly truncated exponential distribution

Recurrence relations for the product moments of order statistics from a doubly truncated exponential distribution are obtained. These relations allow us to evaluate the product moments for all sample sizes.     

Inventory policies for a make‐to‐order system with a perishable component and fixed ordering cost

We consider a make‐to‐order production system where two major components, one nonperishable (referred to as part 1) and one perishable (part 2), are needed to fulfill a customer order. In each period, replenishment decisions for both parts need to be made jointly before demand is realized and a fixed ordering cost is incurred for the nonperishable part. We show that a simple (s_n,S,S) policy is optimal. Under this policy, S along with the number of backorders at the beginning of a period if any and the availability of the nonperishable part (part 1) determines the optimal order quantity of the perishable part (part 2), while (s_n,S) guide when and how much of part 1 to order at each state. Numerical study demonstrates that the benefits of using the joint replenishment policy can be substantial, especially when the unit costs are high and/or the profit margin is low. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Machine scheduling with an availability constraint and job delivery coordination

In this paper we study the scheduling problem that considers both production and job delivery at the same time with machine availability considerations. Only one vehicle is available to deliver jobs in a fixed transportation time to a distribution center. The vehicle can load at most K jobs as a delivery batch in one shipment due to the vehicle capacity constraint. The objective is to minimize the arrival time of the last delivery batch to the distribution center. Since machines may not always be available over the production period in real life due to preventive maintenance, we incorporate machine availability into the models. Three scenarios of the problem are studied. For the problem in which the jobs are processed on a single machine and the jobs interrupted by the unavailable machine interval are resumable, we provide a polynomial algorithm to solve the problem optimally. For the problem in which the jobs are processed on a single machine and the interrupted jobs are nonresumable, we first show that the problem is NP‐hard. We then propose a heuristic with a worst‐case error bound of 1/2 and show that the bound is tight. For the problem in which the jobs are processed on either one of two parallel machines, where only one machine has an unavailable interval and the interrupted jobs are resumable, we propose a heuristic with a worst‐case error bound of 2/3. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007