All Counterinsurgency is Local: Counterinsurgency and Rebel Legitimacy

Abstract

Although the concept of legitimacy is central to Western counterinsurgency theory, most discourse in this area black-boxes the concept. It hence remains under-specified in many discussions of counterinsurgency. Fortunately, recent research on rebel governance and legitimacy contributes to our understanding of the problems faced by counterinsurgents who want to boost state legitimacy while undermining that of the rebels. Taken together, this research illustrates that a rational choice approach to legitimacy is simplistic; that micro-level factors ultimately drive legitimacy dynamics; and that both cooption of existing legitimate local elites and their replacement from the top–down is unlikely to succeed. Western counterinsurgency doctrine has failed to grasp the difficulties this poses for it.     

Dangerous work: Terrorism against U.S. diplomats

The goal of diplomats is to represent their countries’ interests through diplomacy, not arms. Because they are not military personnel, they may be perceived as at lower risk of being the target of terrorists. However, recent events have called this perception into question. Despite this danger, there has been little research on terrorist attacks against diplomats. Drawing on the terrorism studies literature, this article argues that diplomats are targeted more than non-diplomatic targets in countries where certain U.S. foreign policies are implemented. An empirical analysis of 471 attacks against U.S. diplomats from 1970 to 2011 reveals that while U.S. alliances and foreign aid increase the likelihood of attacks against diplomats, U.S. military intervention and civil war, on the other hand, increase the risk of terrorism against non-diplomatic targets. This finding is relevant because it shows terrorist attacks against diplomats result from certain types of foreign policy.     

The US NATO and military burden sharing: post-Cold War accomplishments and future prospects

NATO burden sharing has become an especially timely issue in the past several years as a result of a number of factors, including Russian annexation of Crimea and destabilization of eastern Ukraine in 2014. This article argues that alliance unity among the great democracies of Europe and North America is indispensable to peace and stability on the Eurasian continent. A fractured NATO, and especially, a large divide in purposes or commitments as between the United States and its European security partners, invites aggression and the possibility of inadvertent escalation. Past successes and failures in US-involved multinational peace and stability operations, within and outside of Europe, show that mission accomplishment requires give and take, including the occasional acceptance of unequal costs and benefits among the members, in order to achieve peace and security objectives.     

Life in the “Gray Zone”: observations for contemporary strategists

The term “Gray Zone” is gaining in popularity as a way of describing contemporary security challenges. This article describes the “short-of-war” strategies – the fait accompli, proxy warfare, and the exploitation of ambiguous deterrence situations, i.e. “salami tactics” – that are captured by the term and offers several explanations for why state and non-state actors are drawn to these strategies. The analysis highlights why defense postures based on deterrence are especially vulnerable to the short-of-war strategies that populate the “Gray Zone.” The article concludes by suggesting how defense officials might adapt defense policies to life in the “Gray Zone.”     

A class of Bayes-optimal two-stage screens

Items are characterized by a set of attributes (T) and a collection of covariates (X) associated with those attributes. We wish to screen for acceptable items (T ∈ C_T), but T is expensive to measure. We envisage a two-stage screen in which observation of X_ is used as a filter at the first stage to sentence most items. The second stage involves the observation of T for those items for which the first stage is indecisive. We adopt a Bayes decision-theoretic approach to the development of optimal two-stage screens within a general framework for costs and stochastic structure. We also consider the important question of how much screens need to be modified in the light of resource limitations that bound the proportion of items that can be passed to the second stage. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A generalized inspection game

The paper addresses the problem of a patrol trying to stop smugglers who are attempting to ship a cargo of perishable contraband across a strait in one of M time units. The situation was modeled as a two-person zero-sum game of exhaustion by Thomas and Nisgav and this article extends their results. The game has many characteristics in common with the Inspection Game in Owen's book on Game Theory; this Inspection Game is generalized and the relations between the two games are discussed.     

Multiobjective flow-shop scheduling

Previous research on the scheduling of multimachine systems has generally focused on the optimization of individual performance measures. This article considers the sequencing of jobs through a multimachine flow shop, where the quality of the resulting schedule is evaluated according to the associated levels of two scheduling criteria, schedule makespan (C_max) and maximum job tardiness (T_max). We present constructive procedures that quantify the trade-off between C_max and T_max. The significance of this trade-off is that the optimal solution for any preference function involving only C_max and T_max must be contained among the set of efficient schedules that comprise the trade-off curve. For the special case of two-machine flow shops, we present an algorithm that identifies the exact set of efficient schedules. Heruistic procedures for approximating the efficient set are also provided for problems involving many jobs or larger flow shops. Computational results are reported for the procedures which indicate that both the number of efficient schedules and the error incurred by heuristically approximating the efficient set are quite small.     

Optimal layered search

This article investigates the problem of planning an optimal layered search for a stationary target. A search is layered if it assigns each point in the search space an integer number of glimpses or looks. General necessary and sufficient conditions and an existence theorem are obtained. The special case in which the initial target distribution is bivariate normal is considered in detail.     

Transient analysis of multiple-unit reliability systems

A general Markovian model representing several multiple-unit redundant repairable systems is proposed and its transient behavior is studied. Specifically, for multiple-unit reliability system the reliability and availability functions are derived in an explicit form for the transient case. The stationary availability and mean time to system failure are deduced from the main results as special cases.     

Application of dirichlet integrals for curtailment problems in sampling inspection

The standard problem in sampling inspection is to consider plans with and without curtailment. Curtailment causes difficulty and authors rarely give exact results (i.e., exact OC and ASN functions) for curtailed procedures. In this article we regard curtailment as an inverse sampling procedure and use Dirichlet integrals to obtain exact formulas for the OC, the ASN, and also the variance of the number of observations required under three types of plans: no curtailment, semicurtailment (for rejection only) and two-sided curtailment. Different sections of the article deal with the single sample, the two-stage, and the multiple-stage sampling problems. New tables for carrying out the single-sample procedure are included in the article. The authors feel that this article presents new directions and new ways of dealing with problems associated with quality control.