Markov chain with taboo states and reliability

A computationally feasible matrix method is presented to find the first-passage probabilities in a Markov chain where a set of states is taboo during transit. This concept has been used to evaluate the reliability of a system whose changes in strength can be thought of as a Markov chain, while the environment in which it is functioning generates stresses which can also be envisaged as another Markov chain.     

On convexity proofs in location theory

It is often assumed in the facility location literature that functions of the type ø_i(x_i, y) = β_i[(x_i-x)²+(y_i-y)²]^K/2 are twice differentiable. Here we point out that this is true only for certain values of K. Convexity proofs that are independent of the value of K are given.     

A linear programming solution to the generalized rectangular distance weber problem

The Weber Problem generalized to the location of several new points with respect to existing points is formulated as a linear programming problem under the assumption that distances are rectangular. The dual problem is then formulated and subsequently reduced to a problem with substantially fewer variables and constraints than required by an existent alternative linear programming formulation. Flows may exist between new as well as between new and existing points. Linear constraints can be imposed to restrict the location of new points. Pairwise constraints limiting distances between new points and between new and existing points can also be accommodated.     

An analysis of the long range operating characteristics of the MIL-STD-105D sampling scheme and some suggested modifications

An integral part of the MIL–STD–105D scheme for sampling inspection by attributes is the transfer from normal inspection to reduced or tightened inspection when the historical record of inspected lots suggests unusually good or bad quality. The switching rules in MIL–STD–105D have been criticized, especially by Japanese manufacturers, as being too severe when what is defined as acceptable quality material is submitted. This paper examines the long range fraction of lots rejected for several MIL–STD–105D sampling plans by using the MIL–STD–105D switching rules, using a modification suggested by the Japanese Standards Association, and by using a second modification developed by the authors. The Japanese Standards Association switching rules are more complex than those in MIL–STD–105D. It is demonstrated that they lead to improved long–range properties for Normal–Tightened–Reduced schemes, but to poorer properties for Normal–Tightened schemes. A simplified set of switching rules is suggested, wherein the “limit numbers” in MIL–STD–105D are eliminated. In comparison to MIL–STD–105D, the simpler rules lead to a lower probability of rejection for good lots and a comparable probability of rejection for bad lots.     

A family of games on 1,∞)2 with payoff a function of y/x

A two-parameter class of games on 1,∞)² is studied. The games may be regarded as analogs of Silverman games, having continuous payoff function in place of a step function of y/x. This change is motivated by a desire to move toward a model for competitive situations where the penalty for overspending increases with the amount of overspending. There are some similarities to games with bell-shaped kernel. For most of the region considered in the plane of the two parameters there are solutions of finite type, which are obtained explicitly. There are, however, pockets in this plane where no optimal strategies have been found and possibly where none of finite type exist.     

“simple-approximate” battle-outcome-prediction conditions for variable-coefficient lanchester-type equations of modern warfare

This article considers combat between two homogeneous forces modeled by variable- coefficient Lanchester-type equations of modern warfare and develops new “simple-approximate” battle-outcome-prediction conditions for military engagements terminated by two different types of prescribed conditions being met (fixed-force-level-breakpoint battles and fixed-force-ratio-breakpoint battles). These battle-outcome-prediction conditions are sufficient (but not necessary) to determine the outcome of battle without having to explicitly compute the force-level trajectories, and they are characterized by their simplicity, requiring no advanced mathematical knowledge or tabulations of “special functions” for their application. Integrability properties of the Lanchester attrition-rate coefficients figure prominently in their results, and involved in their development is a generalization of Lanchester's famous square law to variable-coefficient Lanchester-type combat and several other novel mathematical developments for the analysis of ordinary differential equations. Examples are given, with the attack of a mobile force against a static defensive position (both sides armed with weapons whose firepower is range dependent) being examined in detail.     

Bounds on parallel-processing of queues with multiple-phase jobs

Currently, both the hardware and software designs of many large computing systems aim at improved system performance through exploitation of parallelism in multiprocessor systems. In studying these systems, mathematical modelling and analysis constitute an important step towards providing design tools that can be used in building such systems. With this view the present paper describes a queueing model of a multiprocessor system operating in a job-shop environment in which arriving jobs consist of a random number of segments (sub-jobs). Two service disciplines are considered: one assumes that the sub-jobs of a given job are capable of parallel operation on different processors while the other assumes that the same sub-jobs must be operated in a strictly serial sequ'snce. The results (in particular, the mean number in the system and waiting time in queue) obtained for these two disciplines are shown to be bounds for more general job structures.     

Book reviews

Export or Die: Britain's Defence Trade with Iran and Iraq. by Davina Miller, London: Cassell, 1996, ISBN 0-304-33852-4 (hbk), £40.00, 04-33853-2 (pbk), £11.99.

The Storm Passed By: Ireland and the Battle of the Atlantic, 1940-1941. by Trevor Allen, Dublin: Irish Academic Press, 1996, ISBN 0-7165-2616-6, (hbk) £17.50.

Arms Control Toward the 21st Century. by Jeffrey A. Larsen and Greqory J. Rattray (eds). Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1996.

Asia-Pacific Security, Less Uncertainty, New Opportunities. Edited by Gary Klintworth. Melbourne: Addison Wesley Longman, 1996, ISBN 0-582-80321-7, £24.99.

Masters of War, Military Dissent and Politics in the Vietnam Era. by Robert Buzzanco, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, ISBN 0-521-48046-9 (hbk), £29.95

Controlling the Arms Trade: the West Versus the Rest. By Paul Cornish, London: Bowerdean Publishing Co., 1996, ISBN 0-906097-44-4 (pbk), £9.99.

Secret Agencies: US Intelligence in a Hostile World. by Loch K. Johnson, London: Yale University Press, 1997, ISBN 0-300-06611-2 (hbk), £22.50.     

Optimal capacity expansion

We consider the problem of temporal expansion of the capacity of, say, a plant or road given estimates of its desired usage (demand). The basic problem is: given a sequence of predicted demands for N time periods, determine the optimal investment decision in each period to minimize a linear investment cost and a strictly convex cost of capacity. The relationship between capacity and the investment decisions is assumed to be linear, but time varying. Constraints on both the individual decisions and on the sum of the decisions are considered. An algorithm for solving this problem is derived.     

Theoretical analysis of the general linear model for lanchester - type combat between two homogeneous forces

This paper studies Lanchester-type combat between two homogeneous forces modeled by the so-called general linear model with continuous replacements/withdrawals. It demonstrates that this model can be transformed into a simpler canonical form, which is also shown to arise from fixed-force-level-breakpoint battles modeled by Lanchester-type equations for modern warfare. Analytical expressions for the force levels for the general variable coefficient linear model with continuous replacements/withdrawals are constructed out of so-called general Lanchester functions for the model without replacements/withdrawals, for which all solutions are shown to be nonoscillatory in the strict sense. These force-level results are unfortunately so complicated and opaque that the constant-coefficient version of the model must be studied before any insights into the dynamics of combat may be analytically obtained. Thus, fairly complete results are given for the general linear model with constant attrition-rate coefficients and constant rates of replacement/withdrawal. However, the expressions for the force levels are still so complicated that we have not been able to develop battle-outcome prediction conditions directly from them alone but have had to establish general results on the qualitative behavior of solutions. A significant result (and one that greatly complicates the prediction of battle outcome) is that all solutions to the model with replacements/withdrawals are no longer necessarily nonoscillatory in the strict sense, i.e., both sides force levels can take on negative values if the force-on-force attrition equations are not “turned off” at the right time. Thus, this paper shows that the addition of continuous replacements/withdrawals to a Lanchester-type model may significantly change the qualitative behavior of the force-level trajectories. Battle-outcome prediction conditions are nevertheless given, and important insights into the dynamics of combat are briefly indicated.