Spares stocking policies for repairable items with dependent repair times

This paper analyzes the problem of determining desirable spares inventory levels for repairable items with dependent repair times. The problem is important for repairable products such as aircraft engines which can have very large investment in spares inventory levels. While existing models can be used to determine optimal inventory spares levels when repair times are independent, the practical considerations of limited repair shop capacity and prioritized shop dispatching rules combine to make repair times not independent of one another. In this research a simulation model of a limited capacity repair facility with prioritized scheduling is used to explore a variety of heuristic approaches to the spares stocking decision. The heuristics are also compared with use of a model requiring independent repair times (even though that assumption is not valid here). The results show that even when repair time dependencies are present, the performance of a model which assumes independent repair times is quite good.     

Optimal ordering policies when anticipating parameter changes in EOQ systems

The classical Economic Order Quantity Model requires the parameters of the model to be constant. Some EOQ models allow a single parameter to change with time. We consider EOQ systems in which one or more of the cost or demand parameters will change at some time in the future. The system we examine has two distinct advantages over previous models. One obvious advantage is that a change in any of the costs is likely to affect the demand rate and we allow for this. The second advantage is that often, the times that prices will rise are fairly well known by announcement or previous experience. We present the optimal ordering policy for these inventory systems with anticipated changes and a simple method for computing the optimal policy. For cases where the changes are in the distant future we present a myopic policy that yields costs which are near-optimal. In cases where the changes will occur in the relatively near future the optimal policy is significantly better than the myopic policy.     

On a single-server queue with state-dependent service

This paper discusses a class of queueing models in which the service time of a customer al a single server facility is dependent on the queue size at the onset of its service. The Laplace transform for the wait in queue distribution is derived and the utilization of the server is given when the arrival is a homogeneous Poisson process.     

Adaptive disposal models

This paper reconsiders the classical model for selling an asset in which offers come in daily and a decision must then be made as to whether or not to sell. For each day the item remains unsold a continuation (or maintenance cost) c is incurred. The successive offers are assumed to be independent and identically distributed random variables having an unknown distribution F. The model is considered both in the case where once an offer is rejected it may not be recalled at a later time and in the case where such recall of previous offers is allowed.     

Estimates of circular error probabilities

The general problem we are concerned with here is the estimation of P_θ(C) where C is some fixed event and P_θ is unknown in some class. The various available estimation procedures seem to involve the choice of some random probability measure. In particular we consider this problem when C is a disk in R² centered at o and P_θ is restricted to be bivariate normal. Details concerning the implementation of the estimation procedures and a Monte Carlo study are discussed for this case. This particular problem arises when we are concerned with assessing the accuracy of a targeting procedure.     

Robustness of preallocated preferential defense with assumed attack size and perfect attacking and defending weapons

The problem is to protect a set of t targets by n perfect interceptors against an attack by m perfect weapons. If the defender solves for an optimal preallocated preferential defense and associated game value assuming m₁ attackers, and the attacker knows the assumption of the defender and utilizes m₂ attackers, he may be able to achieve significantly more damage than had the defender assumed that there would be m₂ attackers. The article treats the robustness of preallocated preferential defense to assumptions about the size of the attack and presents results of an alternative approach.     

Applying Order-of-Battle to Al Qaeda Operations

Since the global war on terror began, the pursuit of Al Qaeda is widely considered as warfare and not the pursuit of criminals. In light of counter-terrorism being redefined as war, the criteria applied for tracking militaries of conventional enemies may also be applicable to Al Qaeda. Intelligence analysts have long used the nine order-of-battle (OB) criteria as part of the estimative process for conventional, or nation-state, enemies. Applying OB criteria to Al Qaeda may assist intelligence analysts in knowing the enemy and identifying changes that will allow for predictive analysis. Many elements of Al Qaeda's OB prior to the events of 11 September were viewed as clutter and not significant changes that might have otherwise alerted intelligence analysts to the impending attack. This essay suggests how one might go about applying the nine OB criteria to analysis of Al Qaeda. Although more difficult and requiring modification, using an analytical procedure that has been tested successfully over many years is a logical step in the war on Al Qaeda. If all OB changes are tracked and analyzed using a systematic approach as outlined in this essay, Al Qaeda attacks may be predicted and/or curtailed in the future.     

A linear-programming-based method for determining whether or not n demand points are on a hemisphere

Whenever n demand points are located on a hemisphere, spherical location problems can be solved easily using geometrical methods or mathematical programming. A method based on a linear programming formulation with four constraints is presented to determine whether n demand points are on a hemisphere. The formulation is derived from a modified minimax spherical location problem whose Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are the constraints of the linear program. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

On estimating survival for reliability models based on age-related stochastic comparisons

A new class of nonparametric reliability models is introduced and studied. A distribution is said to be better at age s than at age t (sBt) if the residual lifetime at age s is stochastically greater than or equal to the residual lifetime at age t. Applications to various forms of replacement policies, including the cannibalization of failed systems, are noted. For fixed s < t, the problem of estimating a survival curve assumed to belong to the sBt class is addressed using recursive methods. An sBt estimator is derived in closed form, and its uniform strong consistency at an optimal rate of convergence is demonstrated. A simulation study strongly supports the claim that the sBt estimator tends to outperform the empirical survivor function in small- and moderate-size samples. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.