People's War? Self-Interest,Coercion and Ideology in Nepal's Maoist Insurgency

This paper analyses the micro-level processes by which ordinary rural Nepalis came to support the Maoist insurgency. Working through the implications of orthodox collective action theory, it finds that Maoist cadres are unlikely to have been strongly motivated by considerations of acquisitive self-interest. However, the participation of many may have been partly secured through various forms of coercion. Non-instrumental motivations for participation that are not accounted for by the rational choice premises that underpin conventional collective action theory are also identified. These are found to have been of particular significance in the violent and uncertain context of contemporary Nepal.     

Optimal selection with alternative information

This article examines the problem of optimally selecting from several unknown rewards when there are given alternative, costly sources of information. The optimal rule, indicating the information to be purchased and the reward to be selected, is specified as a function of the decision maker's prior probabilities regarding the value of each alternative. The rule is surprisingly complex, balancing prior beliefs, the “informativeness” of the relevant information system, and the cost of acquiring information.     

Book Reviews

The Mini-Nuke Conspiracy by Peter Hounam and Steve McQuillan, London: Faber and Faber, (1995)

The Amateur Strategist: Intuitive Deterrence Theories and the Politics of the Nuclear Arms Race By James DeNardo, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (1995), (pbk) ISBN 0-521-48446-4

After Empire: The Emerging Geopolitics of Central Asia By Jed C. Snyder (ed.), Washington DC: National Defense University Press, (1995), 235 pp., ISBN 0-16-051682-x.     

Estimating critical path and arc probabilities in stochastic activity networks

This article describes a new procedure for estimating parameters of a stochastic activity network of N arcs. The parameters include the probability that path m is the longest path, the probability that path m is the shortest path, the probability that arc i is on the longest path, and the probability that arc i is on the shortest path. The proposed procedure uses quasirandom points together with information on a cutset ? of the network to produce an upper bound of O[(log K)^N?|?|+1/K] on the absolute error of approximation, where K denotes the number of replications. This is a deterministic bound and is more favorable than the convergence rate of 1/K^1/2 that one obtains from the standard error for K independent replications using random sampling. It is also shown how series reduction can improve the convergence rate by reducing the exponent on log K. The technique is illustrated using a Monte Carlo sampling experiment for a network of 16 relevant arcs with a cutset of ? = 7 arcs. The illustration shows the superior performance of using quasirandom points with a cutset (plan A) and the even better performance of using quasirandom points with the cutset together with series reduction (plan B) with regard to mean square error. However, it also shows that computation time considerations favor plan A when K is small and plan B when K is large.     

Dual criteria preemptive open-shop problems with minimum makespan

In this article we present an algorithm for the minimum makespan preemptive open shop, which is superior to existing algorithms in both space and time requirements. We define the more complex generalized open shop and flexible open shop and address the minimum makespan problem on these shops. We show how we can use the algorithm for the minimum makespan open shop to achieve load balancing in simple and generalized open shops without increasing the complexity of the algorithm. Load balancing dictates that the number of busy machines in each period is as even as possible. We also consider preventive maintenance issues in the open shop, and makespan retains its minimum value. In particular we consider the scenario where a machine can be maintained during any period that it happens to be idle. Also we consider the case that a maintenance schedule is prespecified. We show that this problem can be solved via a linear programming formulation that can also take into account release times for the jobs and ready times for the machines. Faster algorithms are presented for open shops with three machines or less. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

They protect us,but are they using protection? The potential impact of HIV on the South African Police Service

The drivers of HIV/AIDS in the South African Police Service (SAPS) and impact of the disease on this workforce are neglected areas of research. Existing evidence suggests that while the occupational risk for contracting HIV is low, there are factors associated with the profession that, if left unmanaged, place police officers at risk of contracting HIV. This study's two aims are to identify the potential pathways of HIV infection within policing services and determine the probable impact of HIV/AIDS on SAPS. Through a systematic literature review on HIV/AIDS within police services, and by analysing selected SAPS human resource data, the causal pathways and impact of HIV/AIDS on police services are explored. The study finds that police officers (particularly male officers) are likely to be highly susceptible to HIV infection as a result of risky sexual behaviours born out of occupational characteristics such as high levels of stress, difficult working conditions, living away from home and interactions with sex workers. The problem is exacerbated by the ‘macho’ culture that often prevails among police officers. HIV/AIDS interventions within SAPS must focus on sustained behaviour change. Further, HIV programmes must equip officers with the knowledge and awareness to avoid engaging in high-risk sexual practices that may compromise their health and the effectiveness of the policing service.